Grassley has been in Congress long enough to have been around when this bad idea failed the first time.
Maybe he’s just forgotten.
The export ban would indeed lower prices.
Which is why Deep State opposes it.
The ban would also put pressure on our republic’s enemies with regard to other issues.
Another reason Deep State opposes it.
Mr. President, you rule.
As an alternative, a two tier pricing scale could be established.
Exports are priced at the world maarket level.
Domestic sales are priced at the cost + overhead and profit within the 50 states as normal commerce
If I thought of it President Trump most certainly will.
My diesel Sprinter van is parked.
Perhaps GOP candidates running against the Iran War will make clear to Trump why he needs to arrange a fake truce with Iran this week, “re-open” Hormuz and get crude prices back below $70 ASAP. Or November is likely to be a bloodbath.
Generally, I am opposed to this idea too.
HOWEVER,
“We actually produce more than we consume here, produce more diesel in this country than we consume,”
According to Murkowski, this is the case. IF, we FORCE more diesel into OUR markets by increasing supply the price will go down. Isn’t that just basic economic theory?
What am I missing?
Or does this just reduce the profits that oil refiners are currently making. Which is not what the corporations behind the Senator want.
Here in NH almost all our diesel/gasoline comes from either James Irving’s refinery in New Brunswick or the ones in Newark, NJ. I could be wrong, but I do not think there are vessels of diesel/heating oil coming all the way uip here from the Gulf of America.
Bad idea, Americans should have to compete with the world to buy diesel. If they aren’t willing to pay for it that is just too bad, ship it to someone who will.
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The government site EIA.gov is a very interesting and useful site that documents everything hydrocarbon related to the USA.
One current item in the news and market is the ‘shortage’ of domestic automotive lubricants (motor oil) and the now growing costs and lack of supply at stores & shops.
The EIA.gov documents changes in US exports of lubricants thus reducing domestic supply.
Anyone can use the site to track domestic supply and exports of hydrocarbon energy and it’s direct effect on domestic pricing.
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EIA.gov
This is as close to absurd as it gets. The rest of the arguments against an export ban are the same old money and politics graft and corruption scheme as usual.
“Mike Sommers, the president and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, warned that pausing the export of diesel would “make the problem worse” because it would lead to a glut of supply in Gulf Coast states and could make costs rise in other parts of the country because of imbalances in the broader oil market. “Americans are hurting from rising diesel prices, and policymakers are understandably searching for answers. But restricting U.S. diesel exports would make the problem worse, not better — for consumers, farmers and the broader U.S. economy,” Sommers posted on X. “
Codswallop! We have product pipelines that move product all over the nation. If that is a problem then temporarily suspend the Jones Act for product transport.
You see the price of OUR US diesel fuel? You know how that affects OUR US prices of everything? Do you realize we’re in a war? I can just imagine your thinking during WW2.
Cutting through the free traders and the we are going to lose the midterms crew..and many good questions and a large number of it does not work that ways....let me contribute some numbers and an answer to exporting 10x more from TX than we import into the NE.
The numbers.....DIESEL
Category Volume
Production 5.3 million b/d
Domestic Demand 3.6 million b/d
Exports 1.25 million b/d
Imports 144,000 b/d
Net Exports 1.1 million b/d
The imports come into NE, the exports ship out of TX.
Solution seems simple, eh.....ban exports, lower internal prices and crisis averted......except it does not work like that unless we further fiddle with the markets.
There is never an end to fiddling.
There is no pipeline to get diesel to NE.....
-Ships (1-3 cents/gal depending on distance (dod))
12-36 cents/gal to get it where needed.
Trains (3 or 4 cents/gal dod),
36-45 cents/gal dod to get it where it needs to go
Trucks (5-6 cents/gal dod)
54-67 cents/gal dod to get it where it needs to go.
These incremental costs would ONLY be for the diesel that needs moved from surplus TX to needy NE.
This is simplistic, because you could get import diesel in NE cheaper than these double handled TX gallons....so what are we doing?
Well, dumping an additional 1.1mm gals into a 3.6mm domestic market...would cause domestic prices to plummet to an unknown level....at least to me....AND global prices will skyrocket...so, better idea in this heavy hand of govt scenario would be to sell the surplus and divert the needed 144k gallons (4% of domestic need).....domestic prices would drop and global prices would rise, but to much lesser amounts.
So now what? The producers are getting screwed (unless the govt steps in to subsidize them to past profit levels)...and they may build capacity increase production to access the now much more lucrative export market as well if they knew the govt would not welch on them and pull the plugs leaving them with an even larger over production.
Get’s complicated real fast.....while the free market guys say do not screw with it....even if a couple million Irish starve!
Had to get that in.
Before the games begin, let’s look at where the $6.29+/- retail costs comes from.
Component $/Gallon % of Total
Crude Oil $2.74 43.6% Set by market
Refining $1.32 21.0% Some margin here, probly?
Distr&Mrktg $1.02 16.2%
Federal Tax $0.244 3.9%
State Tax (avg) $0.359 5.7%
Local Tax (avg) $0.05 0.8%
Station Margin $0.28 4.4% Will vary as well
Retail Price $6.29 100%
It gets dizzying......MY suggestion?
Give the truckers an income tax rebate bringing prices back to a pre-war level?....about $3.50 for diesel. This means a $2.73/gal rebate.
A cool $151 billion a year. A bargain to shut the truckers up and have them voting MAGA for awhile?
You want to do that rebate for the gasoline buyer, too?
Sure, WTF.....we spend $1trln more a year than we take in anyway.
Joe Commuter?...and you could restrict the rebate to work
Daily gallons used
Commuting/work ~112 million gallons ~30%
Personal/Pleasure ~262 million gallons ~70%
Total Daily Use ~374 million gallons 100%
Gasoline was $3.08 in Jan 2025 and now $4.06....so $1/gal for work would be $41Bn a year..
...the price of 2 new Ford Carriers all in with planes and crew.
Worth it?
What would ensure the future of the United States better? 2 new carriers or Democrats continuing in a minority role.
Trump has the votes in the House and Senate to get this rebate done......before the election.
He offered $5k per person.....taxpayer or not....at a total one time cost of $1.3 trillion!
This is conditional on MAGA control of House/Senate.....
A promised made to be broken if there ever was one.
Me? The truckers are noisy. The Drivers are noisy....pay them off with a rebate and shut them up until market prices drop.
If the Trump $5k is real, step it down by an equal amount.
Thoughts?
I am tired and probably will not respond no matter how ugly, stupid and number of furries I am accused of buggering.
I just wanted to fuel the fiery debate with some fun facts.
Jesus-Mercy-Peace
In principle I agree with not interfering with free markets, however, I don’t know if that principle is worth economic and political suicide.
In any event, we have a comfortable export margin if diesel products. Roughly 25% of our production is exported. Therefor, we don’t need to ban exports, we just need to limit them so as to provide a domestic supply strong enough to bring prices back down to, say, their level in January, 2026.
A crude (sorry for the pun) way to do this might be to start off with an allowance of 15% of our production to be exported. That gives us a nominal surplus of 10%, or, in other words, a supply of 110% of Jan. 2026, insulated from global pricing. If that results in retail prices dropping below the Jan. 2026 level, immediately adjust to 20%. Rinse and repeat.
The oil companies, refiners, etc., were all doing ok in Jan. 2026, so, I don’t think any majors are exactly going to go out of business, plus they should make INCREASED profits overseas, at least for a while, because this policy will cause somewhat of a price bump outside the US, at least in in countries that are net importers. Sorry, dudes and dudettes. Maybe you need to send some frigates and planes to the Middle East.
BTW, I saw on Fox News this morning, an interesting development: It went by quickly, but may be pretty consequential depending on if it pans out: The UK is going to provide RAF support to Saudi Arabia?
A caveat is that we do not as of yet know what that support entails. The UK has done a lot to castrate its military over the last 2 decades. That leaves a lot of questions, such as whether the UK’s support can be tactically decisive? I suspect not, but maybe that is the wrong question. The better question, perhaps, is whether this will lead other consumers of Gulf States’ petroleum products, or, for that matter, most anyone affected by the spike in prices, to get involved. How far can that go? And if several other countries get involved, will Trump then be willing to do more?
BTW, yes, we should reopen those CA refineries, but, those do not produce enough product to have much effect on the global market. If it dropped average US prices by 10 cents, I’d be very surprised.
Note that lower prices in the US will raise US consumption a bit, which is why I did not suggest immediately heading to “export only 25% of our production”.