Cutting through the free traders and the we are going to lose the midterms crew..and many good questions and a large number of it does not work that ways....let me contribute some numbers and an answer to exporting 10x more from TX than we import into the NE.
The numbers.....DIESEL
Category Volume
Production 5.3 million b/d
Domestic Demand 3.6 million b/d
Exports 1.25 million b/d
Imports 144,000 b/d
Net Exports 1.1 million b/d
The imports come into NE, the exports ship out of TX.
Solution seems simple, eh.....ban exports, lower internal prices and crisis averted......except it does not work like that unless we further fiddle with the markets.
There is never an end to fiddling.
There is no pipeline to get diesel to NE.....
-Ships (1-3 cents/gal depending on distance (dod))
12-36 cents/gal to get it where needed.
Trains (3 or 4 cents/gal dod),
36-45 cents/gal dod to get it where it needs to go
Trucks (5-6 cents/gal dod)
54-67 cents/gal dod to get it where it needs to go.
These incremental costs would ONLY be for the diesel that needs moved from surplus TX to needy NE.
This is simplistic, because you could get import diesel in NE cheaper than these double handled TX gallons....so what are we doing?
Well, dumping an additional 1.1mm gals into a 3.6mm domestic market...would cause domestic prices to plummet to an unknown level....at least to me....AND global prices will skyrocket...so, better idea in this heavy hand of govt scenario would be to sell the surplus and divert the needed 144k gallons (4% of domestic need).....domestic prices would drop and global prices would rise, but to much lesser amounts.
So now what? The producers are getting screwed (unless the govt steps in to subsidize them to past profit levels)...and they may build capacity increase production to access the now much more lucrative export market as well if they knew the govt would not welch on them and pull the plugs leaving them with an even larger over production.
Get’s complicated real fast.....while the free market guys say do not screw with it....even if a couple million Irish starve!
Had to get that in.
Before the games begin, let’s look at where the $6.29+/- retail costs comes from.
Component $/Gallon % of Total
Crude Oil $2.74 43.6% Set by market
Refining $1.32 21.0% Some margin here, probly?
Distr&Mrktg $1.02 16.2%
Federal Tax $0.244 3.9%
State Tax (avg) $0.359 5.7%
Local Tax (avg) $0.05 0.8%
Station Margin $0.28 4.4% Will vary as well
Retail Price $6.29 100%
It gets dizzying......MY suggestion?
Give the truckers an income tax rebate bringing prices back to a pre-war level?....about $3.50 for diesel. This means a $2.73/gal rebate.
A cool $151 billion a year. A bargain to shut the truckers up and have them voting MAGA for awhile?
You want to do that rebate for the gasoline buyer, too?
Sure, WTF.....we spend $1trln more a year than we take in anyway.
Joe Commuter?...and you could restrict the rebate to work
Daily gallons used
Commuting/work ~112 million gallons ~30%
Personal/Pleasure ~262 million gallons ~70%
Total Daily Use ~374 million gallons 100%
Gasoline was $3.08 in Jan 2025 and now $4.06....so $1/gal for work would be $41Bn a year..
...the price of 2 new Ford Carriers all in with planes and crew.
Worth it?
What would ensure the future of the United States better? 2 new carriers or Democrats continuing in a minority role.
Trump has the votes in the House and Senate to get this rebate done......before the election.
He offered $5k per person.....taxpayer or not....at a total one time cost of $1.3 trillion!
This is conditional on MAGA control of House/Senate.....
A promised made to be broken if there ever was one.
Me? The truckers are noisy. The Drivers are noisy....pay them off with a rebate and shut them up until market prices drop.
If the Trump $5k is real, step it down by an equal amount.
Thoughts?
I am tired and probably will not respond no matter how ugly, stupid and number of furries I am accused of buggering.
I just wanted to fuel the fiery debate with some fun facts.
Jesus-Mercy-Peace
I got sidetracked by a couple of projects as I prepared this and note now I mixed gallons in barrels in a very small part of it, but I think a calculations were OK so I’m not gonna have time to tell tomorrow to verify that.
MAybe greater brains THAN MINE Can do that. The real question is, a rebate would seem better than diverting barrels.
I got sidetracked by a couple of projects as I prepared this and note now I mixed gallons in barrels in a very small part of it, but I think a calculations were OK so I’m not gonna have time to tell tomorrow to verify that.
MAybe greater brains THAN MINE Can do that. The real question is, a rebate would seem better than diverting barrels.
I got sidetracked by a couple of projects as I prepared this and note now I mixed gallons in barrels in a very small part of it, but I think a calculations were OK so I’m not gonna have time to tell tomorrow to verify that.
MAybe greater brains THAN MINE Can do that. The real question is, a rebate would seem better than diverting barrels.
I got sidetracked by a couple of projects as I prepared this and note now I mixed gallons in barrels in a very small part of it, but I think a calculations were OK so I’m not gonna have time to tell tomorrow to verify that.
MAybe greater brains THAN MINE Can do that. The real question is, a rebate would seem better than diverting barrels.