Posted on 07/01/2026 1:02:35 PM PDT by PJ-Comix
Ooops! What we predicted about higher gas prices a couple of months ago... Never mind!
On April 28, Politico White House reporter Scott Waldman along with his sidekick, Eli Stokols, were confidently citing experts who predicted a big surge in gasoline prices due to the Iran war as you can see in "‘There’s a day of reckoning coming’: Energy experts expect another spike at the pump."
(Excerpt) Read more at newsbusters.org ...
The point of my message is that because the reserves are critically low now, any additional event from here will have a radically different effect on prices than before.
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disagree. prices have already returned to their prewar levels. there are now more or less constant missle exchanges. they don’t move the needle at all. the iran war has been fully discounted.
there are practical reasons for this. a large chunk of oil that used to go through the persian gulf now bypasses it. As well, the US and venezuela have recently gained huge new market access. that is more people around the world are buying from the new world than they did before. finally, the USA is escorting ships through the gulf hormuz and mostly shooting down drones that fly towards the tankers.
So again anything new would just be new and not be additive—as you suggest.
OK, I accept that you completely do not understand that low reserves makes prices more vulnerable to further events.
Regular unleaded in Central Texas six weeks ago: $4.19/gal
Today: $3.03/gal
Trump-bashers were wrong AGAIN!
$3.43 at Murphy’s in Lilburn GA today.
For at least two weeks it has been holding steady at $3.09 at Costco in Miami.
OK, I accept that you completely do not understand that low reserves makes prices more vulnerable to further events.
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ok. so that’s why you refill. and of course its better to refill when prices are low as they are now. The feds have not done that yet.
how vulnerable? I asked AI about this.
Estimated ImpactOn crude oil prices: Analysts described the effect as real but modest (likely several dollars per barrel in temporary relief or prevented further escalation), not a “transformational” reset. SPR releases historically provide short-term cushioning measured in the low single-digit dollars per barrel range during crises, depending on market conditions.
mineralrightspodcast.com
On gasoline prices: No precise March 2026 U.S. Treasury-style analysis is available yet, but comparable past releases (e.g., Biden’s 2022 180 million barrel + IEA action) lowered retail gas by 17–42 cents per gallon (with a point estimate around 38 cents in one study). A similar or slightly smaller effect is plausible here, though offset by the severity of the 2026 supply shock.
home.treasury.gov
In summary, the release helped moderate prices during a crisis-driven spike but did not deliver a large, lasting reduction on its own.
Neither of your messages addresed my point.
I am talking about the situation right now, today.
Right now the reserves are lower than in decades, and every week they are getting lower. They have not refilled, at all.
Your talk saying that it doesn’t matter because they can refill when the price of low does not address what I have written. I am talking about price vulnerability today, not about how the reserve works over a long period of time.
It is an economic fact that if reserves of a commodity are low, then the price of that item is more vulnerable to supply interruptions.
So today, because the reserves are drastically lower than before, prices are more vulnerable to future events.
And we won’t be as able to release large amounts of reserves to mitigate shortages and calm markets next time, not until we refill. So far we are actually depleting further every week, so this situation is going to last for some time.
The situation is compounded by the fact that many other countries have also badly depleted their own reserves.
Most former spurts are wrong.
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