The point of my message is that because the reserves are critically low now, any additional event from here will have a radically different effect on prices than before.
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disagree. prices have already returned to their prewar levels. there are now more or less constant missle exchanges. they don’t move the needle at all. the iran war has been fully discounted.
there are practical reasons for this. a large chunk of oil that used to go through the persian gulf now bypasses it. As well, the US and venezuela have recently gained huge new market access. that is more people around the world are buying from the new world than they did before. finally, the USA is escorting ships through the gulf hormuz and mostly shooting down drones that fly towards the tankers.
So again anything new would just be new and not be additive—as you suggest.
OK, I accept that you completely do not understand that low reserves makes prices more vulnerable to further events.