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To: HartleyMBaldwin

I might be tempted to vote “not guilty”

The sheriff is just lying out his ass, like he did when the previous innocent man was man was convicted in the case but later exonerated.

Random Match Probability (RMP)

This is the most common way results are presented at trial.

“What is the chance that a random, unrelated person would have this exact same DNA profile?”

High-Quality Profiles: For a full, 20-marker profile, the RMP is often one in a quadrillion or even higher—far more than the number of people on Earth.

40-Year-Old Samples: Because old DNA is usually degraded, you might only get a partial profile. This raises the RMP to perhaps as low 1 in 100,000.

While still strong, it means other people in a large city could technically match by sheer coincidence.


6 posted on 05/08/2026 7:06:55 PM PDT by algore ( )
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To: algore

I thought genetic genealogy is done through hundreds of thousands of markers, compared to CODIS which uses dozens of markers.


10 posted on 05/08/2026 7:18:59 PM PDT by PghBaldy (12/14/12- 930am -rampage begins... 12/15/12 - 1030am - Obama team scouts photo-op locations.)
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To: algore

Good points. I should not have said flatly that Taylor is the murderer.


12 posted on 05/08/2026 7:28:53 PM PDT by HartleyMBaldwin
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To: algore

“I might be tempted to vote “not guilty””

Before hearing the facts?

You would not make it on the jury.


14 posted on 05/08/2026 7:52:33 PM PDT by TexasGator (I-..)
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To: algore

“I might be tempted to vote “not guilty”

The RMP is not the primary determinate in the accuracy og the match.


16 posted on 05/08/2026 7:57:04 PM PDT by TexasGator (1I-..)
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To: algore

“This raises the RMP to perhaps as low 1 in 100,000.

While still strong, it means other people in a large city could technically match by sheer coincidence.”

But most in that city were not near the scene at the time.

If he was in Montgomery County that year the odds that another person in that county at that time had a DNA match would be close to zero.


19 posted on 05/08/2026 8:12:01 PM PDT by TexasGator (1I-..)
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