Posted on 04/24/2026 3:50:51 PM PDT by Ronaldus Magnus III
Three years since the first flight of Starship, the next generation is here. New ship. New booster. New engines. New pad and new test site. SpaceX engineers are working to solve one of the most difficult engineering challenges in history: developing a fully, rapidly reusable rocket. “Test Like You Fly” launches a series that takes you inside the factories and onto the launch pads where humanity's future in space is unfolding.
(Excerpt) Read more at spacex.com ...
Test like you fly; Fly like you test.
There are so many quotable quotes in this 20 minute video. My favorite is:
""We cannot break the laws of physics. We do try to leverage them.""
Robert Heinlein is smiling.
Thank you for posting the Space X link.
Humans in Space will be 100% expenditures for centuries.
For human habitation - the Moon and Mars are 100% of our options.
Photographing rocks and sand, and picking up rocks and sand, will generate 100% of our income.
Venus is super heated and has a deadly corrosive atmosphere.
Jupiter is a gas planet. Jupiter moons exist inside a deadly planetary radiation belt.
Bottom Line - once you leave Earth atmosphere, Job One will always be staying alive.
Job One has always been staying alive on the earth.
We live in a golden age where we seem insulated from the most common problems our ancestors faced:
1. finding/ growing enough to eat.
2. Keeping what you have safe from other humans.
For human habitation - the Moon and Mars are 100% of our options.
Already dropped the cost about 90%. Projected to drop the cost another 90%. From $5000/kg to $50/kg in 3-4 decades.
I am talking about orbital human habitations, not planets, moons, or asteroids...
Uranus is a hostile environment.
I disagree.
In 2026, a majority of humans have daily access to oxygen, clothing, clean water, nourishing food, warmth, and shelter.
You can live a long time with just those six items.
In 2026, a majority of humans have daily access to oxygen, clothing, clean water, nourishing food, warmth, and shelter.
Yes, but a recent phenomena. Disrupt the power grid and access to clean water, nourishing food, and sanitation become problematic for about half that majority pretty quickly.
Only the last roughly 40 years has it been a majority, if that.
Go back 300 years and it is a small minority.
Not sure orbital habitats would be much more risky than dense earth cities.
Most people don’t know our bodies don’t do so well
in outer space. God made it so we could not get very far away from home for lengthy periods.
Here’s the problem.
We can go to the Moon and Mars, but we can’t stay.
If we stay, we can’t come back.
If we don’t come back, we will die prematurely.
The weaker gravity seems cool at first, but our bodies will adapt to it by reducing the strength and size of muscles. We will probably end up shaped more like a giant pear. Going back to Earth would likely cause a heart attack just entering the Earth’s atmosphere. If you survive that, you’ll stroke out just walking out of the spacecraft.
Besides the gravity, Mars has a second concern.
THE DUST.
Imagine living in an environment full of microscopic dust particles, thinner and sharper than a razor blade, and an electrostatic charge that sticks them to everything, like a magnet and iron dust.
Maybe technology can find a way to deal with these problems in the future, but right now it is not possible.
We are a product of our environment. Change the environment and our bodies will adapt. Do we want that adaptation ? What will we look like ? Giant pears with foot long limbs ?
If we adapted and then tried to come back, we would die probably just entering Earth’s atmosphere. If we survived that, we would have a heart attack just trying to walk out of the spacecraft.
But I say go for it. If it was easy it would have no value.
I’ll reiterate my guess, SpaceX unmanned around the Moon in 2026, and/or unmanned landing and return.
That reminds me of (I think) an Asimov story or maybe short novel, set on the Moon. One of the premises is, the Earth colonists construct underground habitats, and in the process of digging them out, they encounter pockets of water ice, which slowly thaw and drip out. Most of them are expended in months, but one is called “The Eternal” and has been dripping for years. The male lead character wants to have a fling with a woman who was born on the Moon, and she turns him down because he could inadvertently break one of her legs during the act. The last sentence is “[his character name] stopped hesitating.”
Anyone going to Mars will have to stay there because the year-long trip would have so deteriorated their earthly bodies that they would probably die if they came back.
Then there is the rocket shot to leave Mars. No backup engineers, no supply chains, no modifications can be made. Rocket launches from earth require hundreds of tests and redundancies and ready supplies. Only one attempt can be made; fail and the whole crew dies.
Making it to Mars with our current technology is a long shot.
What is 100% however, is that Musk and Bezos launching all of their crap into earth orbit will soon create a Kessler Event (space junk crashing into other orbital space junk) that will effectively prevent anyone from leaving the earth for all time.
“Job One has always been staying alive on the Earth.”
—————
You disagree…yet no one has succeeded for more than a relatively few years.
“The weaker gravity seems cool at first, but our bodies will adapt to it by reducing the strength and size of muscles. We will probably end up shaped more like a giant pear. Going back to Earth would likely cause a heart attack just entering the Earth’s atmosphere. If you survive that, you’ll stroke out just walking out of the spacecraft.”
There are lots of assumptions baked into your ideas...
One counterpoint is that centrifuges are a way to counteract the lower gravity. They’ll almost certainly be needed for permanent habitation on the Moon, it’s less certain for Mars. It’s possible just having the sleeping quarters in a centrifugal environment would be enough to keep human physiology happy.
Strength can be maintained at arbitrary levels with resistance training, regardless of gravity. Therefore, lack of strength or not being able to return to Earth aren’t legitimate concerns.
“Besides the gravity, Mars has a second concern.
THE DUST.
Imagine living in an environment full of microscopic dust particles, thinner and sharper than a razor blade, and an electrostatic charge that sticks them to everything, like a magnet and iron dust.”
That would be bad...but it’s actually a complete non-issue. Outside, where there is dust, you need to be in an airtight suit, therefore there’s no exposure. To get inside, you need to use an airlock. Part of the airlock cycling process will involve removing any dust from the outside of the suit. Most likely the next step after airlock will be suit removal and storage.
The interior spaces, almost certainly underground, will have sealed walls, and no dust issues. Just a few feet of regolith or rock also provides excellent radiation shielding.
What’s the point of being there, you ask? The answer is a whole new world’s worth of resources, plus building the technology to spread throughout the Solar System. As another poster pointed out, space based habitats should also be prime real estate.
You’re being far too pessimistic.
Who you jivin with that cosmic debris?
“Anyone going to Mars will have to stay there because the year-long trip would have so deteriorated their earthly bodies that they would probably die if they came back.”
The current endurance record for zero-G is 438 days, which is quite a bit longer than the 260 days required to reach Mars. That astronaut was able to walk from his lander to a vehicle immediately after returning to Earth. He fully recovered his endurance afterwards. All told, he was in space for 678 days across two missions, and lived to be 80 years old.
https://grokipedia.com/page/Valeri_Polyakov
On the topic of “the rocket shot to leave Mars”, the current SpaceX concept is a one-way trip for permanent colonists. I think it’s a good thing that they’ve refocused completely on the Moon in the shorter term, which will allow the perfection of lots of technologies related to Mars.
I don’t think Mars colonization will be practical until we have nuclear powered interplanetary spacecraft, which should cut trip times by a lot.
On the Kessler Event agitprop, in no way would it be a “for all time” issue. LEO space junk burns up, eventually. Folks are also developing technology to remove it on demand.
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