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Seizing Iranian Offshore Islands: High Risk, Low Payoff
U.S. Naval Institute ^ | April 2026 | Brandon Carr

Posted on 04/10/2026 8:31:51 AM PDT by Retain Mike

The United States is said to be considering conducting limited ground operations in the Iran war. Among the potential operations reportedly under consideration are efforts to seize the islands of Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunbs, Larak, and Kharg in the Persian Gulf.

There are serious questions surrounding the feasibility of these potential actions. But like with the air war, even if ground operations succeed tactically, it is highly unlikely they will bring about the strategic effects the administration seeks. Limited ground operations are unlikely to compel the Iranian regime to agree to an immediate ceasefire or an initial political settlement to end the war. They are even less likely to force the regime to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping prior to a cessation of hostilities, as Iran’s control over that waterway is its most important source of leverage to end the war on favorable terms.

Limited ground operations risk prolonging the war and widening it. Such operations would substantially increase the resources required to prosecute the war, severely and enduringly degrading U.S. military readiness in other critical areas of national interest, particularly the Indo–Pacific.

Despite the degradation of Iran’s military capabilities and industrial base in the five weeks since the United States initiated Operation Epic Fury, the combined U.S.–Israeli offensive has not brought about decisive strategic results. The Iranian regime has not collapsed. It maintains the capacity to attack targets throughout the Middle East and has de facto control over the flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

(Excerpt) Read more at usni.org ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Chit/Chat; Military/Veterans
KEYWORDS: hormuz; iran; tds
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To: Antioch
How about their society is their choice and it’s none of our business?

Given a choice, they would not have their current government. The only reason that the mullahs and IRGC is in control there is the same reason Kim controls N Korea and Maduro WAS controlling Venezuela-- they are propped up by Red China.
41 posted on 04/10/2026 10:41:06 AM PDT by In_Iowa_not_from
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To: Retain Mike

Taking Kharg island intact is the key to victory. It’s the only thing the fegime cares about.


42 posted on 04/10/2026 10:44:15 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn)
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To: marron

Jeez we need to control the oil flow to force Iran to keep strait open. Destroying the oil flow would be the worst thing possible. Then Iran’s only play is closing the straight.


43 posted on 04/10/2026 10:46:51 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn)
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To: Retain Mike

Brandon is not explaining ideas he’s just stating things that aren’t true.


44 posted on 04/10/2026 10:48:41 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn)
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To: Antioch

Control Kharg oil not blow it up! Blowing up the oil facility is the worst of all paths.


45 posted on 04/10/2026 10:50:39 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn)
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To: DEPcom

I suspect bombing Iran oil production would be considered a direct threat to the security of China. Almost forcing the CCP to get involved.

Just my 2 cents.

I know nothing...


46 posted on 04/10/2026 10:52:29 AM PDT by woodbutcher1963
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To: woodbutcher1963

Take the island leave the facility intact.


47 posted on 04/10/2026 10:54:49 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn)
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To: marron

“Iran should not be allowed to ship oil while the straits are closed to anyone else.”

I agree.

Do what was done to Venezuela - naval blockade outside of the Straits, and seize all the Iranian ships. Take their oil, and settle up with the new regime after its all over.


48 posted on 04/10/2026 11:03:46 AM PDT by BeauBo
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To: DIRTYSECRET

Put a mosque on each big enough to house them. They’ll be safe?

i’m thinking a pork BBq stand.

they’ll be fine


49 posted on 04/10/2026 11:08:24 AM PDT by teeman8r (Armageddon won't be pretty, but it's not like it's the end of the world or something )
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To: Antioch

“If you blew up Iran’s oil production, you would be removing millions of barrels of oil from circulation, and that would result in $200 a barrel oil and collapse the world economy”

I agree. The new regime will also need oil income as soon as possible. We could however establish a naval blockade outside of the Straits, and seize any ships going to or from Iran.


50 posted on 04/10/2026 11:10:28 AM PDT by BeauBo
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To: Antioch

Just take out the refineries, storage, and any import terminals for refined products. Iran is not a significant net exporter of such - in fact, at times it is unable to fully supply itself.

No sizable country in this era can survive without refined products. Some have tried to get close, and all it bought them was a boat load of trouble. In any event, take out the Iranian refined products supply, and the country will grind to a halt. In some ways, no refined products is worse than no electricity.


51 posted on 04/10/2026 11:15:37 AM PDT by Paul R. (Old Viking saying: "Never be more than 3 steps away from your weapon ... or a Uriah Heep song!" ;-))
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To: Retain Mike

Kharge Island is the key to Iran.Without the oil supply coming from that island Iran would be a third world dump.

The U.S. should take it and the Oil until a free government gets formed.

Without the money coming from the sale of petroleum Iran would be broke and have no ability to build nuclear reactors or anything else of importance.


52 posted on 04/10/2026 11:28:28 AM PDT by puppypusher (The world is going to the dogs.)
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To: Paul R.

Take the island INTACT. Destroying the oil works accomplishes no strategic goal


53 posted on 04/10/2026 11:31:47 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn)
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To: Retain Mike

Seize them, fly the flag, declare it U.S. territory and react to any subsequent missile or drone strikes from Iran as if the place was as American as Martha’s Vineyard.

Iran needs to pay and pay and pay at this point.


54 posted on 04/10/2026 11:44:43 AM PDT by one guy in new jersey
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To: BeauBo

Roughly 1/3 of the oil Iran has been selling is loaded on CHINESE tankers.
Are you proposing blockading Chinese Oil Tankers?
I would think that the CCP would consider this an Act of War. A direct threat to the economy of their country.

Not to mention I believe the Chinese buy a far amount of our Treasury Notes financing our 40 trillion dollar debt.


55 posted on 04/10/2026 11:45:50 AM PDT by woodbutcher1963
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To: DEPcom

“Start hitting trucks that are delivering supplies into Iran too.”

Crater the roads.


56 posted on 04/10/2026 11:51:30 AM PDT by ChessExpert (Infidels of the world unite against the evil that is Islam.)
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To: sauropod

.


57 posted on 04/10/2026 11:51:46 AM PDT by sauropod
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To: DEPcom
I believe that you are correct. With a death cult ideology, the Iranian regime aims to impose sufficient damage on the US and on the region that they either survive intact or justify a privileged entry into Islam's paradise. That will likely leave us with little choice except to resume bombing until the collapse of the Iranian economy and regime.

WW II Japan provides a similar example of this approach. The country was devastated through bombing, but the government prepared to be invaded. Rather than surrender, they planned to impose enough casualties on the first US invasion force for the southern home island of Kyushu so as to extract a favorable peace deal. Mindful of the severe casualties expected, the US Navy advocated continued bombardment instead of invasion.

As it was, Emperor Hirohito and his circle knew of the US atomic bomb program. They planned to act after the bomb was used so as to arrange a surrender -- provided that the Emperor was continued in power. Even then, after surrender was agreed to, there was a military coup attempt with the goal of continued resistance.

So, the lesson is that we will likely have to bomb much more and may still have trouble forcing a surrender until a viable counter party emerges who is willing to surrender.

58 posted on 04/10/2026 11:52:46 AM PDT by Rockingham
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To: Retain Mike

If the Navy said this, they are not up to date on the circumstances, which I doubt.

Abu Musa, the Greater and Lesser Tunbs, Larak, and Kharg islands in the Persian Gulf are highly strategic Iranian-controlled military, naval, and energy locations. They possess the ability to control shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, hold significant military importance for monitoring the Gulf, and are key targets in the 2026 conflict.

Besides having 90% of Iran’s oil on Kharg Island alone, These islands are central to Iran’s “arch defense” of the Strait, serving as a protective shield and surveillance network. They should be hit and neutralized to quicken an end to hostilities. The real headache at the moment is the strait and their ability to clog it. After they lost them the bombing of the other nuclear sites still in existence can reconvene to stop Iran’s ability to go nuclear. And hey ought to send the bill to Obama and Biden.

wy69


59 posted on 04/10/2026 11:55:27 AM PDT by whitney69 (uestiuetion and interpret the answer.)
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To: woodbutcher1963

“Not to mention I believe the Chinese buy a far amount of our Treasury Notes financing our 40 trillion dollar debt.”

China’s holdings in U.S. treasuries is less than 2% of the outstanding treasuries, and American interests, public and private, continue to hold the majority of U.S. treasuries - in spite of the oh so frequent public scare tactics about foreigners holding “too much” of our public debt.

China, you’d think, would have interest in the strait of Hormus - which is recognized internationally as as “international” waterway, be closed to no one. Because if any one nation in the area thinks it is going to favor its friends and restrict others, then a whole new war is going to take place there.


60 posted on 04/10/2026 12:00:29 PM PDT by Wuli ( )
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