Official from mediating country: Trump leaning toward ground invasion, convinced Iran will then capitula

Times of Israel ^ | March 26, 2026 | Jacob Magid

[Miami Rebel]

An official from one of the countries mediating between the US and Iran tells The Times of Israel that US President Donald Trump appears to be leaning toward ordering a major US ground operation against Iran, with Washington convinced Tehran will buckle under such military pressure.

The official intimately familiar with the mediation efforts says the US privately recognizes that Iran is not likely to agree to the concessions presented in Washington’s 15-point plan and has dispatched thousands of troops to the region in order to capture Tehran’s Kharg Island on Trump’s orders.

A second official from a mediating country warns that while the US may be able to capture the island, holding onto it for an extended period of time will require many more soldiers and an extended period of fighting — far beyond the four-to-six week window that Washington has told the public that the war would last. While Saturday will be the four-week mark, the US still claims to be well ahead of schedule.

Both officials from mediating countries say that the Islamic Republic is not likely to capitulate, regardless of whether a ground operation moves ahead.

They insist that Iran will now agree to terms that it wasn’t willing to accept before the US launched the war.

Trump on Monday announced that he was delaying until Friday his deadline for Iran to agree to his 15-point proposal for ending the war or face a bombing campaign against its power plants.

Thousands of additional US Marine troops are slated to arrive in the region around that new deadline.

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TOPICS: Miscellaneous
KEYWORDS: iran; nationbuilding; no

[Liz]

FTA-—The vaunted Israeli Mossad intel believed, this would lead to a “mass uprising”

1oldpro cogently observes: “With spears and shovels as Iranian “weapons,”
I can’t believe anyone believed there would actually be a “mass uprising.”

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Looks like Israel greatly misled Trump.

The question is why?

[Georgia Girl 2]

Like they would have a clue as to what Trumps plans are. 🙄

[flamberge]

3,000 paratroopers and 5,000 Marines are in process now.

That is not a "ground invasion". It is nothing but a distraction move.

We could take Kharg Island and/or Qasem Island with such a force. They would come under constant drone and missile attacks afterwards. We would need to expel the entire coastal population within 100 km of those places to secure them.

Maybe that is all part of some clever plan.

My guess is that the real plan is "(e) - None of the above"

[1Old Pro]

My guess is that the real plan is "(e) - None of the above"

You get an A+

[Wallace T.]

It is possible that Mossad and the CIA are providing real weapons to Iranian dissidents. There are also the Kurds, who want a Kurdish state in northwest Iran. Even so, you will need a mutiny of the Iranian Army, or at least a large part of it, to topple the mullahs. It is possible that an Army and Marine incursion, possibly to seize Kharg Island, as a trigger for an armed civilian uprising and military mutiny. The problem with a Kurdish uprising is the attitude of Turkey, which has a large and restive Kurdish population in their eastern provinces. We could possibly help the Saudis and the UAE forces to get engaged. The IDF needs to participate with ground forces as well.

[1Old Pro]

I think the only way for regime change is for the military to revolt.

[madison10]

Sounds like a liar. The media, like Congress, is not despised enough.

[ncalburt]

I agree .
the situation is now fraying .

[madison10]

That reads correct for this thread

[Ingtar]

I think I had my capitula fixed by a surgeon.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

Comment deleted.

[Liz]

P/M Netanyahu seeks to avoid an Israeli vote
because the Iran war gives him no boost in polls
The Straits Times ^ | Mar 25, 2026

A poll published by the Times of Israel on March 19 showed Mr Netanyahu’s Likud party would win a puny 28 of the Knesset seats, down from the present 34, falling short of a majority.

Now reversing himself, Mr Netanyahu has acknowledged there was “no certainty” Iranians would overthrow their rulers. As the war nears a fifth week, on which Netanyahu apparently built his winning reelection prospects now appears remote. His only strategy is to buy time.

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So what is Netanyahu telling Trump now?

[Sequoyah101]

ZERO? I think similar was said three weeks ago about any troops on the ground anywhere.

[aimhigh]

The Klingons (Muzzies) want to die in battle.

[Texas Eagle]

I don’t know about the thread but I didn’t say I don’t believe there are leaks in The Pentagon
Maybe you didn’t get my joke. Koe Jent is Joe Kent.

[Liz]

............the situation is now fraying ...................

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It was a neither here nor there patchwork from the get-go.

[Sequoyah101]

The only ZERO involved is the ZERO reason to take Kharg Island.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

So what is Netanyahu telling Trump now?

That's President Netanyahu to you to.

[Liz]

Did somebody mention political blowback?

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P/M Netanyahu seeks to avoid an Israeli vote
because the Iran war gives him no boost in polls
The Straits Times ^ | Mar 25, 2026

A poll published by the Times of Israel on March 19 showed Mr Netanyahu’s Likud party would win a puny 28 of the Knesset seats, down from the present 34, falling short of a majority.

Now reversing himself, Mr Netanyahu has acknowledged there was “no certainty” Iranians would overthrow their rulers. As the war nears a fifth week, on which Netanyahu apparently built his winning reelection prospects now appears remote. His only strategy is to buy time.

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So what is Netanyahu telling Trump now?

[ansel12]

“”””Iran is about the size of California, Montana and Texas put together. Or, another way to look at it - Iran and Alaska are about the same size. And the Tehran metro has about 13 million people.
Can anyone tell me what the US will need in manpower to defeat Iran in a ground war?””””

Using your calculations I’m guessing about 31% less manpower than to defeat Greenland?