Report to Congress on the Iran Conflict and Strait of Hormuz

U.S. Naval Institute ^ | MARCH 13, 2026 | U.S. NAVAL INSTITUTE STAFF

[Retain Mike]

U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran since February 2026 and subsequent Iranian military action throughout the Persian Gulf have raised concern about oil and natural gas markets in relation to the Strait of Hormuz (the Strait). Starting on March 4, 2026, Iranian forces have declared the Strait “closed,” threatening and carrying out attacks on ships attempting to transit the Strait. In light of a considerable decrease in shipping traffic, President Donald Trump has raised the prospect of U.S. actions intended to reestablish free transit of the Strait.

The Strait, which borders Iran and Oman, is a key waterway, particularly for the transit of oil and natural gas and other commodities – including helium, fertilizers, and other industrial products – to world markets. Roughly 27 percent of the world’s maritime trade in crude oil and petroleum products goes through the Strait. Additionally, 20 percent of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade passes through the Strait. The Strait’s role as a critical conduit for oil and natural gas resources to reach global markets establishes its importance to the global economy.

Iran’s extensive Persian Gulf coast and its military capabilities have long given Iran the potential ability to project power throughout the region, including over energy trade.

A prolonged disruption of Middle East oil trade would create oil market conditions for which there is no historical precedent. The efficacy of emergency response measures could be tested up to their design limits. Oil prices would likely experience significant upward price pressure. Exactly how high and for how long prices might be elevated is uncertain and would be determined by the amount of time needed to normalize Middle East oil trade.

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TOPICS: Business/Economy; Chit/Chat; Military/Veterans
KEYWORDS: europeanunion; hormuz; iran; nato; oil; straitofhormuz; waronterror

[Retain Mike]

I found the picture particularly helpful.

[faucetman]

What if Iran developed a nuke, even a dirty bomb and dropped it on Israel? Would that not cause Israel/US to respond? What affect would that have on oil prices/availability?

What if Iran attacked its Middle East, oil producing neighbors? What affect would that have on oil prices/availability?

Oh, Iran would NEVER do THAT!

Wait ...........

These people, using the term people loosely, (Iranian regime and followers) are CRAZY, FANATICAL. There is ZERO chance of changing them. The best thing we can do is irradicate them from the face of the earth.

[rlmorel]

USNI is usually a good source of military information pertaining to the Navy, though there are sometimes opinions or articles that seem more focused on protecting the Naval Service, which is to be expected.

My dad had a lifetime subscription, and I had been reading it since I was seven or eight years old…

My dad has since passed on, and I miss reading it.

[Retain Mike]

I have been a member since the 70’s and look to it for a better grasp of what is going on than shows up in most places.