Posted on 02/18/2026 11:06:59 AM PST by MtnClimber
President Donald Trump has barely finished the first year of his second term in office, but already pollsters are looking to the midterm 2026 congressional battle and 2028 presidential election. That includes the I&I/TIPP Poll. Believe it or not, many voters are already deciding whom they will support.
The latest national online I&I/TIPP Poll asked registered voters of both major parties and independents two questions about their preferences.
The poll, which was taken by 1,126 registered voters from Jan. 27 to Jan. 29, has an overall margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points.
The first question: If the vote were held today, which candidate would they favor to be their presidential candidates in 2028? And, the second: Which party do they want to control Congress after 2026’s midterm elections?
Start with the 2028 presidential election. While no candidate received a majority for either party, the leading candidates were predictable.
Among the 527 Democratic primary voters, Kamala Harris received 38% of the vote, followed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom (13%), former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (5%), Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (4%) and a long list of others at 3% or less.
However, not all people on the Democrat side have made up their minds: “Not sure” got a 17% chunk of the answers, while “someone else” (4%) got smaller support.
Among the 478 Republican primary voters, the 2028 presidential favorites include Vice President J.D. Vance (43%), Donald Trump Jr. (18%), Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (5%), and a list of nine others who received 3% or less support.
Once again, “not sure” got a sizable 15% and “someone else” got just 1%.
So name recognition, at this stage of the process, seems to mean a lot.
That might be why Kamala Harris still gets a hefty chunk of the Democratic vote, despite being drubbed by Donald Trump in 2024; and also why Donald Trump Jr. looms large with nearly a fifth of the total vote for his party, despite not showing any clear presidential ambitions — at least not yet.
With only nine months to go for midterm congressional elections, I&I/TIPP asked another significant question of voters, namely: “Which party do you prefer to control Congress after this year’s midterm election?”
There, the Democrats have a slight edge over the Republicans, 45% to 42%, with a significant 12% who say they haven’t decided yet.
Even so, the breakout by political affiliation shows why Democrats have a slight edge right now. Democrats, by an overwhelming 97%, want their party in control; none selected the GOP. Meanwhile, 92% of Republicans said they wanted their own party in power, while 2% said they thought Democrats should control Congress.
The decider in the coming election will likely be independents: They lean 37% to Democratic control, and 32% to Republican control. But a whopping 31% of independents still haven’t made up their minds.
So Republicans have their work cut out for them in the upcoming election battles. But they also have some hidden advantages.
Democratic support is heaviest among young people: those in the 18-24 age group, for instance, lean 50% toward the Dems, but only 22% toward the Republicans. Among those 25-64 years of age, the parties are virtually deadlocked in terms of support around 35% each. But for those 65 and over, Republican registrations account for 42%, Democrats just 32%.
This is significant because older voters are most likely to go to the polls. In 2024, they had a 74.7% turnout, compared to just 47% for 18-24 year olds and just over 60% for the 25-44 year olds
White voters lean Republican over Democrat by 43% to 28%. That compares to 52% Democrat, 18% Republican for minority voters. Again, this is significant because white voters are more likely to vote than other groups.
The same is true for income. Republican registration rises with income, as does voter participation.
So turnout will be key for the coming elections for both parties, particularly with a deadlocked electorate as we currently have.
Turnout, indeed, is key for the entire electorate. The question is: Who will turn out?
That might depend to a great extent on the SAVE Act now in Congress. The new law would require proof of citizenship to register to vote, and also would compel states to remove all noncitizens from their voting rolls. It also requires voters to provide a valid ID at the polls, as they now must do to board a plane, rent a a hotel room, or buy alcohol.
That bill passed the House of Representatives 218-213 last week, and now goes to the Senate, where Republican supporters say they now have 50 votes — enough to pass it with a tie-breaking vote by Vance.
However, it’s enough to pass the bill only if the Democrats don’t filibuster. If they do, it will require 60 votes to move forward.
There’s also another signal issue involved in the upcoming elections, one that directly affects the Democratic Party: Americans believe it has gone too far to the left.
“You know, there used to be a lot of conservative Democrats,” CNN senior election data analyst Harry Enten said. “Right back in 1999, 26% of Democrats self-identified as conservative. Just 5% said that they were very liberal. It was a smidgen, a smidgen, a smidgen. Now that far left has gained considerably in power. Look at this. Now we’re talking about a fifth of Democrats, 21% say they’re very liberal. That conservative part of the Democratic Party, adios amigos, goodbye, just 8%.”
What’s more, 33% of Democrats and 42% of Democrats under 35 now call themselves Democratic Socialists.
That could be enough to scare off independent voters and fence-sitters come election time. As the I&I/TIPP data show, 18% of voters self identify as “conservative,” while 16% call themselves “liberal” and a big plurality of 43% see themselves as “moderate.” America is not a liberal majority nation, not even close, which could be big trouble for Democrats.
I&I/TIPP publishes timely, unique, and informative data each month on topics of public interest. TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past six presidential elections.
Terry Jones is an editor of Issues & Insights. His four decades of journalism experience include serving as national issues editor, economics editor, and editorial page editor for Investor’s Business Daily.
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Jim
Trump needs to be involved in a HUGE turn out the vote drive. Republican turnout will be critical because the democRATs will be bussing in voters and doing ballot harvesting and who knows what else.
The Ad:
Vance-Rubio
“They both work for a living”
don’t underestimate the millenial/Gen-Z support for DeSantis...they like him because he’s CONSTANTLY calling out the anti-American H-1B visa scam for corporate America
Earlier this year I said based on voter registration shifts, J.D. Vance would win 2028 with 320 EVs. Just today, Grok was asked about the 2028 election, and said “J.D. Vance would have 312 EVs.” I think that’s low. Depending on the D candidate, I think Vance will get as high as 340.
In 2024 Marist polls hade Biden 2 point above Trump.
Many other polls were just as bad. I am not going to get all wrapped up in proven manipulative propaganda known as media polling.
I am not ignorant to shifting opinion, I just refuse to let these bogus polls manage it.
“The first question: If the vote were held today...”
Meh. “Today”. I believe the economy will be surging in the months to come. That’ll change these numbers more to the Republican’s favor.
I think the 'RATs will ramp up the cheating. The Republican turnout needs to be enough in the swing states to offset the cheat. I think 340 could be possible with no cheating, but no way if the voting rolls and voting process is not cleaned up. Especially in the swing states.
On the positive side the Fulton County FBI raid may turn up prosecutable evidence which would put a real damper on the 'RAT games.
Who will win.
I Don’t Know will come in second
Let me just say that I tip my hat to the new revolution.
I agree with the change all around me, but I won’t get fooled again.
I have the same feeling.
Trump need to be involved with a huge ARRESTS drive.
He ran on a JUSTICE platform, then screwed us over by flip/flopping on Hillary.
Not ONE CEO/Director/Business Owner arrested for the CRIME of hiring illegals!!
Not ONE impeached judge.
Soros/Singham still walking free.
The list goes on and on.
Trump arrests = Biden arrests. I'm not seeing a difference.
We could all go back in time and look at similar polls from days gone by.
President Gary Hart would like to have a word with the people who are doing these polls.
I think it sounded like “Monkey Business” to him.
I don’t see it given the deportations, that could cost Ds up to 10% of their “voters,” combined with the other major hits they are taking.
Remember, other than 2020, they have been at the SAME % of vote pretty much since 2012.
Rubio is amazing. Vance is also g great, but I would prefer the ticket to be Rubio-Vance, for 8 years. Then Vance and someone else, for the next 8 years.
312 to 316 is probably the limit now. But that’s 58% of the EV’s. Landslide territory.
The record is stuck again.
I want Rubio to stay as SOS. He seems to ve quite good at it.
I don’t get the trump jr thing. I’d rather like you have a Vance Rubio ticket for sure.
It depends on if they were counting popular vote which most do. If so, it definitely was within the MoE.
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