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I did note your quote of US consumption, for military particularly. I went looking for it and found your number, but the AI cite was singular, and more bothersome, I went searching for this back in November when it became clear the trade deal with China was essentially non existent. I did not find it then. The 3000 ton number post dates those events in Korea. Like all projections, maybe best to consider it suspect.

I found some IEEE discussion that somewhat shoots down the repurposing proposals. Much to my surprise, they point out that when a neodymium magnet is produced, it is produced to a form factor spec. If you cut it and try to re-shape it, it loses magnetism. This re-purpose concept was somewhat loud by Lutnick in Korea. He had not been briefed.

As for Japan and its oil dependence, it has always been an error to talk about energy rather than oil. Energy does not plant or harvest food, nor move it to store shelves. Oil does that. I have watched carefully the presentations of the Tesla cybersemi and reality is what it somewhat has been since the early 1900s.

Trains moving food by steam engine could indeed do that. This was where the term “cattle car” came from. But the cattle had to be alive, and a huge % of steer mass is not edible. Huge blocks of ice were put in ceilings to try to ship frozen meat, but this failed in summer.

It took oil to have enough power to move the food and keep it frozen. There is zero talk of cooled cyber semi products. They just don’t have the power.

This is why oil matters, everywhere not just Japan. Not energy. You won’t find 400 HP John Deere tractors that are electric. You can’t plant and harvest food before the season ends without oil. The initial electric tractors were presented as something that would need multi recharges per day, perhaps with battery replace in the field. The time consumed at the critical parameter — how long growing season is, and harvesting season before it rots in the field.

This stuff has been pounded on by the oil community for decades. There is nothing new here. Everyone knows.

Owen: "The 3000 ton number post dates those events in Korea.
Like all projections, maybe best to consider it suspect."

I consider all internet data to be suspect but, sadly, often that's all we have to work with.
AI generated data, while sometimes mistaken, at least goes through basic screening, and can usually be checked against themselves for better reliability.
But AI, just like Wikipedia (on which AI often depends) is still subject to G.I.G.O. and cannot give better responses than what its data bases provide.

Owen: "As for Japan and its oil dependence, it has always been an error to talk about energy rather than oil.
Energy does not plant or harvest food, nor move it to store shelves."

Yes, "Energy" in general can and does do all of those things since vehicles can run on not only oil, but also propane, LNG, electricity (i.e., trains, street cars), batteries (even trucks), ammonia (cargo ships), coal (power plants to charge batteries and heat industrial furnaces), etc.
The degree to which oil dominates transportation is more a function of price and availability than necessary technologies.

In Japan, it looks to me like roughly half of oil consumption goes into transportation, meaning there is still room for Japanese to live on less oil imports, should an international emergency ever require that.

So, the point of this discussion is that Japanese will not be brought to their economic knees by a situation where Chinese pirates begin hijacking a few Japanese oil tankers.
They can adjust and adapt for many months before things get critical.

Owen: "It took oil to have enough power to move the food and keep it frozen.
There is zero talk of cooled cyber semi products.
They just don’t have the power."

They don't need it.
If overhead electricity can power trains, and large batteries trucks, then the small extra power for refrigeration can come from oil without seriously drawing down dwindling oil stocks.
My point is: you never have to replace 100% of oil right away.
Every improvement in efficiency or shift to an alternate fuel can help if, or when, oil supplies become more expensive and less available.

Owen: "This is why oil matters, everywhere not just Japan.
Not energy.
You won’t find 400 HP John Deere tractors that are electric.
You can’t plant and harvest food before the season ends without oil.
The initial electric tractors were presented as something that would need multi recharges per day, perhaps with battery replace in the field. "

Propane can power large engines.
Gas/diesel made from coal can power large engines.
But, more important, for every large tractor engine, there are many smaller truck and car engines running on gasoline that can switch to batteries or propane to save diesel fuel for large tractors and other critical engines.

That's all I'm saying here:

"Peak oil" will not be followed by a sudden disappearance of all oil, but rather by slow declines and rising prices allowing time for economies to adapt.
Some current oil powered applications are easier to convert than others, and those will go first, leaving enough oil to power equipment more difficult to convert.