Posted on 10/22/2025 10:58:08 AM PDT by Miami Rebel
Edited on 10/22/2025 11:30:49 AM PDT by Sidebar Moderator. [history]
Yes I buy a lot more pork and chicken
In thinking more on the drought issue I am reminded of California's mismanagement of water rights due to climate change/wildlife preservation policies where the central valley has effectively been denied water. This has lead to many farms going fallow or some farms changing crops to those that require less water. These policies were not drought driven, but environmentalist driven, and have resulted in lower production rates out of California at least.
There’s currently a shortage of and a monopoly on processing facilities. That’s the real reason why prices are high.
-SB
Who’s getting the money? Tyson, Cargill, JBS, Smithfield.
Are you saying that “government control” has produced industry consolidation? You don’t think that UN-controlled capitalism had something to do with it?
(By the way, I’m not sentimental about the small homesteader going extinct. The only way you feed 350 million Americans is through industrialized food production.)
Yes, supply chain has a big impact on price. Each step does not double that price, but increments it’s slightly. At the end of the chain the price may have doubled due to the increases on each step of the chain.
Americans don’t care about the country of origin of their foods any more than they care about the country of origin of their underwear.
Every time my wife brings home a leg of lamb I see a “Product of Australia” label on it. 75% of our lamb originates there.
All of that government intervention is what we want to get away from.
Let the free market work…supply and demand will correct prices if allowed…supply will lag behind demand for a while resulting in higher prices🤷🏼♂️
Yes, this is a big problem not only in the farming/animal husbandry industry, but in many other industries such as automobiles, airlines, steel, oil, telecommunications, etc. Too few players equal a race to the bottom in terms of service, price competitiveness, etc. At worst they act as cartels. See the German auto industry for examples of cartel activity and how it has been detrimental to consumers and the overall market.
“Nothing gets solved by allowing a recession.”
A recession is what the ‘Rats want to help them win the Mid-Terms.
Everything feeds into everything. As gas gets more expensive everything that needs gas to move gets more expensive. As labor gets more expensive everything that involves labor get more expensive. And the tariffs don’t help the math, when the competition gets more expensive everybody is free to up the price of domestic and increase their profit margin. You can see that in diesel, as the price of gas goes up so does the price of diesel, even though the things that make gas more expensive frequently have no impact on the diesel supply, but the “competition” is more expensive, so there you go.
I'm amazed we're not in a recession already due to the excessive money printing from the Trump administration in 2020 (Covid checks) and the Biden administration after. Right now we're seeing two bubbles in the economy: car manufacturing and AI. Car manufacturing looks about to burst due to the high prices of new cars, which have lead to an increase in the price of used cars, along with the increased loan interest rates. We're starting to see rising loan default and repo rates to the point that some areas have up to a 6 week lead time for a tow truck to come and get a repo. I don't recall ever seeing that in the past. AI may burst since the investment ratios haven't met any significant returns outside a few players such as NVidia. This has lead to reduced investment rates, however there's still enough money cirulating on this that I guess the jury's still out on this one.
Agreed. And according to https://alec.org/article/wheres-the-beef-regulatory-barriers-to-entry-and-competition-in-meat-processing-joe-trotter/ (from mid-2023):
As a result of the laws and regulations governing who can process meat for commercial consumption, there are high barriers to entry for small businesses looking to increase their market capacity. In order to have a full-time inspector or multiple inspectors on site, producers are required to furnish rent-free office space, laundry service, and other amenities for FSIS representatives.
Consolidation in the meat industry is certainly an issue, and it comes up often. It isn't a sudden introduction into the price picture.
Unfortunately if we didn’t block foreign beef all the domestic ranchers would be out of business. We don’t want foreign nations to have that kind of power over our markets especially when it comes to food
Generally speaking 100% is a good estimate. Some markets it’s way more (jewelry goes up 2 to 500%), some it’s a little less. But there’s a cost to every step, that must be recouped, or go out of business.
One thing to remember too when talking about a food market is the thing being sold keeps getting smaller as it progresses through. The guys who buy the cow buy the WHOLE cow, even the bits they aren’t going to be sold, or at best be sold as by product for pennies a pound. Then they cut off all that stuff and mostly just sell the good stuff. So right there the price must go up. Plus of course they have to incur all the costs of storing and processing and transporting. And then the next step is going to “discard” more bits (and store and process and transport) so their sale price must go up.
American cattle production is low due to factors like multiyear droughts, which have forced ranchers to sell off herds, leading to a record-low inventory. High input costs for feed, fuel, and financing have also stressed operations, making it difficult for ranchers to rebuild their herds.
Drought: Prolonged drought has reduced pastures and ranges, forcing ranchers to sell cattle because they couldn’t afford to buy expensive feed. Some areas are still recovering, and it will take time for pastures to heal, slowing down herd rebuilding.
High costs: The cost of production has increased for everything from feed and fuel to financing, putting significant financial pressure on cattle operations. These rising costs are a major reason why ranchers are selling off heifers and not breeding as many replacements.
Record-low inventory: The mix of drought and high costs has led to the lowest cattle inventory in over 70 years, with some estimates placing the number of cattle and calves at a level not seen since 1951.
Slow recovery: It will take years for the herd to fully recover, as it takes time to rebuild a breeding herd and for pastures to become productive again.
U.S. Cattle Inventory Smallest in 73 years | Market Intel | American Farm Bureau Federation
Feb 5, 2024
American Farm Bureau Federation
The U.S. is facing a beef deficit - What’s the solution in your opinion? : r/business - Reddit
Mar 16, 2025 — The US beef herd is at 1961 levels. Drought, years of poor prices, and producers leaving the industry has led to the d...
Reddit ·
r/business
The U.S. has the fewest cattle right now since 1951, and ranchers face ...
6 days ago — Drought and poor pasture conditions: Persistent drought has led to a lack of moisture for growing forage and hay, the pr...
Sounds like something Congress would have to deal with so that problem will never get fixed.
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