Posted on 08/16/2025 10:25:00 AM PDT by BenLurkin
This weekend, the path of Erin is expected to pass north of the northern Leeward Islands, the NHC says.
Impacts of the hurricane have already been felt throughout the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico but they are not expecting a direct hit.
The Caribbean Islands should see about 2–4 inches through Sunday and totals could reach up to six inches.
As for where the storm is likely headed, models are in agreement that Erin will turn north this weekend into early next week, staying well east of the U.S.
But people on the East Coast of Florida should be aware of dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents
(Excerpt) Read more at fox13news.com ...
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/161731.shtml?cone#contents
The recent path of the storm is unsettling, however:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/161731.shtml?swath#contents
It’s going to miss us by a lot.
Nauti? Have you retired ?
The GFS models have been consistently developing a system after erin, that develops in to a cat 4.
Because the possible system is so far out, the possible path and development is uncertain, however, early paths took it into s. georgia/n.e. florida.
Current forecast have it going through the keys as a cat 1 around the 26th, then becoming a cat 4 as it moves along the gulf coast of FL, before traveling to hit the FL panhandle area on the 28th.
Again, it's pretty far out, but if they start watching something that develops around the 20th, around 15 deg. lat, that's it
This thing is found 917 so speed may increase. The big one last year was 900 rate and wind speeds were dome of the highest ever.
Air and water temperature are a hurricane's best friend.
Every day since June 21, the Northern Hemisphere has less and less sun light.
Cat 5 - the strongest hurricane - is not common. Less than one every two years.
If this new storm really is Cat 5, that would make at least two Cat 5 storms in two years.
Color me skeptical - my first instinct says something has changed about the way we measure Cat 5 storms.
Um, no. Not retired. What U.S. land mass is threatened?
“If I say it’s safe to surf this beach, then it’s safe to surf this beach!”
Big Hurricane, well offshore makes for big long interval swells hitting the beach. Too close and it’s a washing machine. Erin should make some good waves Tuesday and Wednesday as it get north of a line heading out from Cape Canaveral and the backside winds push big waves towards the coast.
Erin should curve around far enough west and north of Bermuda that impacts there will be tropical storm to cat-1 range but with massive swells ... the impacts on eastern coast of U.S. will be entirely beach erosion and rip currents ... some parts of eastern Newfoundland could get fairly strong winds as Erin blasts by, offshore oil rigs there could be severely impacted (Erin will be cat-2 extratropical by then).
Visiting your ole stomping grounds? Always fun to do that!
Thank you.
Shhh... Don’t give the left any ideas.
Of more concern to FR people, guidance has been showing a possible hurricane near south Florida moving into the eastern or central Gulf towards Labor Day weekend (which is Aug 30 to Sep 1 this year). That one may not be as strong as Erin has become but it would definitely be a more impactful storm to people on land.
Wow, that’s a lot of weather info there!
I’ll wait to hear what Bastardi thinks of the next storm. Meanwhile it maybe a cat 5 but the entire hurricane wind field is 60 miles across. Still headed due west. If it does not turn northwest soon perhaps an Andrew. I hope it stays off the Gulf Stream of super charged energy.
Your good. Going on a row boat may be interesting though.
Expanding Tariff Fund
Proof that EVERYTHING is the result of TDS.
Don’t worry about Erin being an Andrew, it’s going to recurve past Bermuda and stay well out to sea. The only possible land impact of any significance is for southeast Newfoundland and even that has been trending lower.
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