Posted on 08/01/2025 6:48:18 PM PDT by nickcarraway
Last week, we handicapped possible Democratic candidates for president. Now, the Republicans.
There won’t be an incumbent president in the 2028 race, but there will likely be a sitting vice president in the running. That’s why any assessment of Republican presidential prospects begins and ends with JD Vance.
And of course, his prospects begin and end with Donald Trump. The current president got him elected U.S. senator and then, two years later, picked him to be his running mate, elevating Vance to MAGA’s crown prince — and the nomination front-runner.
Vance can learn a lot of lessons from other vice presidents who have sought the presidency. They tend to be stronger nomination candidates than general election contenders. While vice presidents have many advantages, they’re usually weighted down by the negatives of the incumbent president in addition to their own negatives, making for a heavy load to carry. It is a tricky position to be in.
When presidents are popular — as were Dwight Eisenhower in 1960, Ronald Reagan in 1988 and Bill Clinton in 2000 — their vice presidents still have to carry on their backs the administration’s record, but the lift is lighter. Ike’s VP, Richard Nixon, lost by only a razor-thin margin, as did Clinton’s VP, Al Gore. Reagan’s VP, George H.W. Bush, won his race to become the first incumbent vice president to be elected president since Martin Van Buren.
When presidents are unpopular, as were Lyndon Johnson in 1968 and Joe Biden in 2024, it creates a complex hazard for vice presidents to maneuver. While they want to show loyalty to the president, they also have to accommodate the public’s desire for change. Squaring loyalty with change is the toughest move in the business. Just ask Hubert Humphrey and Kamala Harris, vice presidents who were handed presidential nominations by insiders (neither entered state primaries) and then lost general elections.
If Trump is popular in 2028, Vance will proudly run on Trump’s record. But if Trump is unpopular, Vance will have a much tougher task — bringing to mind the curious story of Thomas Topham, the Englishman who had to lift an 800-pound table with his teeth.
What do voters think of Vance? There are three polling numbers to watch: his rating among all voters, his rating among Republicans and his rating among independents. The first tells us where he stands with the national electorate; the second measures his ability to win his party’s nomination; the third provides clues as to strengths and weaknesses among potential swing voters.
Vance’s rating, according to the average of four recent polls, is 42% favorable and 51% unfavorable. That’s nine points net negative.
Digging deeper, we find that Republicans love Vance; they rate him 80% favorable to 11% unfavorable, according to the Economist/YouGov poll. Not surprisingly, Democrats despise him; he rates 4% favorable, 89% unfavorable among them. Independents, who often determine winners in close elections, are less positive than negative, 28% favorable to 53% unfavorable.
An Emerson College poll conducted in late June found Vance leading the GOP nomination race with 46% of the vote. He was followed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 12%, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 9% and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 5%. Eight other prospects polled 2% or less.
For the general election, Emerson’s late July survey shows close contests with Vance as the Republican standard-bearer. He leads Democrat Pete Buttigieg, the former transportation secretary, by a single point, 44% to 43%. Vance tops two other Democrats by three points: He leads Gavin Newsom, California’s governor, 45% to 42%, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a New York member of Congress, 44% to 41%. An Overton Insights poll from late June has Harris — who, interestingly, now trails Buttigieg for the Democratic nomination in the Emerson poll — leading Vance 45% to 42%.
While Vance is in the hunt, the race starts close. National and world events — inflation, tariffs, immigration, deficits, Ukraine, Gaza, China, Iran, Epstein — could change these numbers in a flash.
Regardless of the Republican name on the 2028 ballot, it will be Donald Trump’s record that will be top of voters' minds. On that, we can all agree.
“What I don’t get is why he’d be viewed *unfavorably* by alleged independents.”
I believe it’s common knowledge that pollsters generally under-sample GOP voters. Knowing this helps make a little more sense to me.
Consider this: LBJ, HST, Coolidge, Roosevelt, Arthur, and Johnson were VPs that became president through death, before they had the chance.
I can't think of one Democrat "likeable across vast swaths."`
Can you?
That and I believe that most “independents” are really democrats. If you can’t figure it out by now, then you are clueless, hence democrat. But I repeat myself.
Well, we did already have a Witch as first lady in the 90s, so perhaps Hindu won’t be a stretch.
The Dougster, aka Mr Kackala Harris, was Jewish. Obama (”My Muslim faith”) made it through.
Or maybe there’s a difference with those ones... something... maybe.. oh, yeah— “Democrat.”
The explanation is very simple. The Advocate is a far left progressive newspaper. They are very heavy into LGBT issues.
They lie. But to quote Mark Twain, "liars, damn liars, and statisticians. It is believed this was originally from Benjamin Disraeli.
Elect Vance to the presidency and make former President Trump the new head of D.O.G.E. Works for me.
JD Vance is owned by Peter Theil and Palantir Technologies.
If you understood Palantir, you would be worried. They are 100X worse than Snowden warned us about.
Is that why he was chosen to be VP?
How did he go from being Hollywood liberal to Silicon Valley?
What could Trump do for an encore? He could travel to the remaining states needed for a Convention Of States and offer to be the Chairman once it was called. That would put him up there with George Washington who chaired the original Convention.
Boy do we really need a convention of the states first thing on the agenda TERM LIMITS!!!
Balanced Budget. It only needs 5 more states to happen and once there was a Convention on that everyone would see that the world didn’t end so another call would be much easier.
His prospects began and end with Peter Thiel.
Billionaire Peter Theil hired JD Vance out of college, then funded his business venture. Then funded his senate run in Ohio.
Finally, Theil met with Trump and asked him to pick JD as his VP.
Elon Musk was replaced by Peter Thiel as CEO of X.com, which was renamed PayPal in June 2001 and went public in 2002.
Musk owned X.com and Thiel owned Confinity. The two merged and became PayPal.
Thiel is German born, Musk is South Africa.
Gawker magazine outed Thiel as being gay. He couldn’t sue for defamation as it was true. So when Gawker published Hulk Hogan’s sex tapes, Thiel funded Hogan’s lawsuit against Gawker, winning over $100 million.
If JD becomes president he will be the most articulate and eloquent president since Theodore Sorensen.
Nathan: That is a GREAT observation. Enjoyed Theodore’s Pulitzer!
Trump wouldn’t be serving three consecutive terms. He will run if he wants to, and the SC will find a way for him to do it legitimately.
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