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Posted on 07/07/2025 5:14:23 PM PDT by Libloather
The Trump administration's Department of Energy (DOE) on Monday released a report that found currently scheduled retirements of energy-generating facilities coupled with delays in bringing new power sources online could lead to a rise in blackouts by the end of this decade.
DOE's report found that with about 104 gigawatts of energy-generating capacity scheduled to be retired by 2030, power outages could see a significant rise if that capacity isn't replaced in a timely manner. It is estimated that annual outage hours could rise from single digits today to over 800 hours per year.
The agency noted that while 104 GW of power generation is scheduled to be retired, it is scheduled to be replaced by 209 GW of new capacity by 2030 — though only 22 GW of that comes from firm baseload generation sources. It added that even with the assumption of no retirements, the risk of outages in some areas rises more than 3-fold.
"This report affirms what we already know: The United States cannot afford to continue down the unstable and dangerous path of energy subtraction previous leaders pursued, forcing the closure of baseload power sources like coal and natural gas," Secretary Scott Wright said in a statement.
The report said electricity demand is rising in part due to the construction of energy-intensive artificial intelligence (AI) data centers along with advanced manufacturing facilities.
"In the coming years, America’s reindustrialization and the AI race will require a significantly larger supply of around-the-clock, reliable, and uninterrupted power," Wright said.
"President Trump’s administration is committed to advancing a strategy of energy addition, and supporting all forms of energy that are affordable, reliable, and secure," he added. "If we are going to keep the lights on, win the AI race, and keep electricity prices from skyrocketing, the United States must...
(Excerpt) Read more at foxbusiness.com ...
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Dare I say mine more coal while developing nuclear?
“104 GW of power generation is scheduled to be retired, it is scheduled to be replaced by 209 GW of new capacity by 2030 “
Capacity is a useless metric. That 209 GW of windmills and solar cells will produce that output only 28% of the time whereas that 104 GW of conventional plants will produce that output 80% of the time.
Guess which one produces more useful and “dispatchable” power.
Even if you replaced that 104 GW of conventional generation with 500 GW of solar and wind, you still don’t have the power when you need it most — windless hot days and at night.
There are 8,760 hours in a year. Are you ready for your power to be off 10% of the year?
I hope Congress comes to its senses and stops this lunacy.
AI is going to destroy all of us, one way or another.
AI does not approve of your comment
Natural gas turbine generation.
The results of the demo-commies hard work to turn us into a 3rd-4th world country. Perhaps we should sacrifice a few each day at one of the Hawaii volcanos (just toss ‘em in) until we run out of them. We’ll tell them they are helping save the ‘climate’!
Cut 1,000,000 employees out of the feds, that’ll save a few bucks. Of course that will leave us with only TWO MILLION employees but we’ll get by.
AI is going to destroy all of us, one way or another.
++++++++++++
Could not agree more.
But, but, but renewables...
The only legitimate way to go off grid is with solar and / or wind. Chest thumping and saying you have a generac that burns natural gas is idiot level cope. The gas grid is what crashed during the Texas Feb freeze. The gas grid crashed first then the gas turbine power plants went off line. So depending on a natural gas generac for long term power is just cope. Propane you say sure that 500 gallon tank will last about a week at the typical load of a large American home. Then you are dependent on a whole supply chain of LPG production, refining, and delivery to your now depleted tank.
My solar panels make 5 times what my large homes can use, and the 50KW wind turbine routinely makes enough during the night when wind is howling in the north Texas Plains to power the structures for a month off a few days of solid winds. I can at the flip of a couple breakers drop off grid and stay off grid for months or indefinitely. Should the sun not be up or the wind not blowing the two powerbanks have 60kWh in them that’s at least 2 days at normal loads of 70F or if I only run the Mitsubishi splits in the main bedroom and media room aka mancave more than a week.
The term you are looking for is compound energy drought. Two days of back up is enough for Texas and that’s backed up by 40 years of weather and climate data.
[Overall, researchers found that the longest potential compound energy drought on an hourly timescale was 37 hours (in Texas)]
This is the hard data.
https://www.pnnl.gov/news-media/energy-droughts-wind-and-solar-can-last-nearly-week-research-shows
I am a prepper my whole system was designed with that goal in mind and I have helped my neighbors all have off grid capable systems we all can even island mode as the inverters have their own frequency standard and don’t need to PLL to the grid. They can phase lock loop in grid follow mode but they don’t need too they are VSC type inverters and can do reactive, and active power in full sine wave standing alone.
At least be accurate in your rant...This is 2019 it’s even better now in 2025 but this data is verified and published and free.
[In April 2019, wind generators in Texas ran at an overall 44% capacity factor (the utilization rate of total generating capacity). Monthly wind capacity factors in Texas are slightly higher and less variable than in the United States as a whole.]
Midway down the page is a graph of the Texas wind capacity factors over a years time.
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45476
My turbine is averaging about 20% CF and it’s only in a class 3 wind field not 4s ,5s or 6s like West Texas. Still 7000kWh per month is twice what my largest use for a month is August being that month. I export and sell the rest along with a large chunk of solar power too. ERCOT is all too happy to buy it especially when the sun is blazing and the grid is struggling with the AC loads. I don’t even need the grid , flipping a couple of beakers and set the inverters to stand alone mode and Bob’s your uncle. We lost the grid in the last storms for a day ish the flip time for the breakers was the only reason we knew the grid went down. When it came back up the only way we knew was the single circuit on the other side of the grid the breakers turned back on lighting up a LED bulb that never gets turned off it’s sole job is to show if the grid is live that and light up the back patio where the dogs astroturf for pottie is.
Texas is a special case. You do not get those capacity factors elsewhere.
Still, even 44% is horrible. You need to expend twice the capital cost to build a 99.99% reliable system.
Off grid...fine.
I’m talking about reliable baseload power on the grid, which is essential. Different animals.
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