Count me as doubtful but hopeful. We may not have been in this exact place before but in all the years we have been at ones that rhyme and there has never been a lasting peace in the ME.
Not doubtful as long as Trump is in.
After Trump, if we get an Obama type, all bets are off.
That’s the problem with us. There is (((NO CONSISTENCY.)))
Every 4 years we have major policy shifts and nations like Iran have come to learn and exploit this.
Democracy is great. The will of the people, adapt with the times (technology, emerging threats, changes in demographics...).
The problem though, is that we also do not respect our own promises, even signed to treaties (Ballistic Missile Treaty / Conventional Forces Europe Treaty) made by predecessors. This is what caused the war in Ukraine, NATO East expansion, we just won’t accept the responsibility and deflect with rhetorical nonsense like “war of aggression” or “unprovoked Russian attack.”
Likewise, nations like Iran have learned that every four years is an opportunity for them to reshuffle the cards. Even Saddam did this. As soon as Bush H. was out of office and Clinton came in, he began testing us. Saddam began to push the limits of the armistice and even violated it in many ways (violations of no fly and wheel zones, 150km missile range limit...).
Our political system with it’s rotating door for policy makers (Presidents, Congress, Senior Executive Schedule) makes us highly inconsistent.
On the good side, many of Israel’s former foes have signed peace treaties or have gone quiet, tacitly accepting Israel’s existence.
Indeed, while not perfect, I could argue that the former iran axis (with Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis) is the last main holdout on an active basis against Israel, and they’ve been severely whacked if not defeated.
It’s a pretty bright day for Israel today. I’m optimistic.