Posted on 05/28/2025 2:28:50 PM PDT by Miami Rebel
Kamala got 75,000,000 votes 2024, supposedly, Trump 77,000,000. I’ve never seen another republican ever come close to these popular vote totals.
*Spanberger worries me.*
She won in a district Trump won. Blame republicans.
**We need a White candidate.**
Sad but true.
Spanburger is smart and articulate, unlike Kamala.
I wonder how many people here really know much about Winsome Sears.
She’s a strong Conservative with a very good background; and she would be a positive influence for changing the damage that Democrat policies have done to the Black population:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YpxXFsJZVhs
Why sad?
If Trump has any faults to speak of it’s that he’s too nice and he’s a rule follower.
That’s just it, she looks like the kind of candidate that could peel off a lot of Republican votes.
Doesn't mean squat if she can't get elected.
Republicans always want to run blacks at the top of the ticket in statewide races and they almost always lose spectacularly.
Lt. Gov is about the best they can do. A statewide senate or gov race almost never wins.
At this point it's Spanberger's race to lose. She'd have to do something profoundly stupid to blow such a polling lead.
Are you in Virginia?
I think the point is that if it comes down, as T Ruth has suggested, to a binary choice, the people who can actually vote there have to choose between being Trump ‘purists’, and having a chance at winning.
Who would you put up against Spanberger?
Conservatives vote in presidential elections and maybe some midterm elections. The rest they don’t bother. Been that way since 2017. If trumps not on the ballot, we lose most of the elections.
The capital should rotate between states and regions. That boat anchor should be passed around to all the states treading water in this mess. It should be a tent city. If you want the federal employment perks working at the capital you live in the tent city, moving every year or so. It should pay well, but it shouldn’t be cushy and parasitically dominant on any state it happens to border for more than two years. In my opinion.
Freegards
I took a look at them here, but they aren't extensive or deep.
The few things I can gleen (the few policy questions) seem to indicate a tilt of the Independent vote to Democrat, suggesting they might have labeled some Democrats as Independents.
Examples:
Poll Demographics:
Implied demographics with independent leans applied:
Ideology:
The demographic is effectively a D+10 but Conservative+1 in Virginia? I don't believe it.
Looking at the regional breakdowns compared to election results, I used Perplexity Pro AI to give me percentages based on the poll regions:
| Region | Poll % | Pop % | Youngkin % | McCauliffe % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Virginia/Richmond | 18% | 15% | 45-50% | 50-55% |
| Northern Virginia | 31% | 37–40% | 30-40% | 60-70% |
| Shenandoah Valley | 7% | 6-7% | 65-75% | 25-35% |
| Southside | 8% | 4-5% | 60-70% | 30-40% |
| Southwest Virginia | 12% | 3% | 70-80% | 20-30% |
| Tidewater | 25% | 19-20% | 45-55% | 45-55% |
Notice the following biases:
Northern Virginia: McCauliffe's largest win, but the poll undersampled the state's largest region to make room for other oversampling.
Southside: A region Youngkin won that was undersampled by nearly 50%.
Southwest Virginia: Oversampled 400%, was McAulliffe's smallest turnout.
On the few issues crosstabs:
| Issue | Dem | Ind | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|
| Very concerned about debt/deficit | 37% | 37% | 74% |
| Favor increase tax above $400,000 | 88% | 72% | 59% |
| Cut spending all programs | 5% | 25% | 55% |
| Cut all but defense, SSI, Medicare | 25% | 39% | 67% |
| Cut defense | 50% | 42% | 36% |
| Modify SSI, Medicare | 12% | 18% | 49% |
| Choice of personal impact: | |||
| Increase taxes | 43% | 28% | 10% |
| Fewer services | 10% | 27% | 53% |
| Both | 13% | 27% | 19% |
| Neither/not big problem | 33% | 30% | 16% |
Independents match Democrats in their LACK of concern about the debt? But the sample is +1 Conservative?
Again, the Independents overwhelmingly favor "taxing the rich?"
Everywhere else, the Independents lean closer to the Democrats than the Republicans, but the poll is somehow Conservative+1?
I think this poll skewed the regional breakdowns to favor McCauliffe voters.
-PJ
This poll suffers a major bias of omission in order to create a favorable headline for Spanberger.
The issues important to Virginians and were the focus of major policy actions by the Youngkin/Earle-Sears administration that were omitted from the poll that would favor Earle-Sears are:
I would dismiss this poll as psyops for the Spanberger campaign that needs a rebuttal from Earle-Sears and Youngkin.
-PJ
It’s clear that’s it’s skewed 43-26 isn’t remotely in the realm of reality.
Likely oversampled NOVA, or skewed on socioeconomic breakdowns.
This is the kind of numbers you get when you have a scandal ridden or highly unpopular incumbent .. and this doesn’t fit the dynamic of this race at all.
28% undecided seems insanely unlikely as well given the current political climate and atmosphere.
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