Posted on 04/10/2025 9:23:52 AM PDT by grundle
I asked Grok: “How much would an iPhone cost if all of the raw materials and ores, mining, refining, extraction, processing, design, programming, manufacturing, assembly, labor, and all other factors were done 100% entirely and exclusively in the United States?”
This is the answer that it gave:
Estimating the cost of an iPhone if every aspect—raw materials, mining, refining, extraction, processing, design, programming, manufacturing, assembly, labor, and all other factors—were done 100% in the United States is a complex task. It requires considering a wide range of variables, many of which depend on assumptions about supply chain restructuring, labor costs, infrastructure development, and economic feasibility. While precise figures are unavailable due to the speculative nature of such a scenario, I can provide a reasoned estimate based on available data and expert analyses.
Currently, an iPhone’s production cost (bill of materials plus assembly) ranges from approximately $400 to $558, depending on the model (e.g., iPhone 15 Pro Max costs around $558). This reflects manufacturing primarily in China, where labor costs are low (averaging $2–$10/hour), raw materials are sourced globally, and supply chains are optimized for scale and efficiency. Retail prices range from $799 to $1,499, incorporating research and development (R&D), software, marketing, and Apple’s profit margin (typically 60–62%).
Moving all production to the U.S. would significantly increase costs due to several factors:
1) Raw Materials and Mining: iPhones contain about 75 elements, including rare earths (e.g., neodymium, dysprosium), aluminum, gold, and silicon. The U.S. lacks domestic sources for many of these. For instance, China supplies 85% of global rare earths, and there are no bauxite mines for aluminum in the U.S. Establishing new mines and refining facilities would take years and billions in investment, driving up costs. Extracting and processing these materials domestically could increase raw material costs by 2–3 times due to higher environmental regulations, labor costs, and initial capital outlays. Current component costs (around $400–$500) might rise to $800–$1,500.
2) Labor Costs: U.S. manufacturing wages average $22–$30/hour, compared to $2–$10/hour in China. Assembly alone, currently estimated at $4–$10 per unit, could rise to $30–$112 per unit, depending on hours worked (e.g., 7–8 hours at U.S. rates). Total labor costs across mining, refining, and manufacturing could add hundreds more per unit, potentially $200–$500, given the need for skilled workers in a fully domestic supply chain.
3) Manufacturing and Infrastructure: The U.S. lacks the scale and expertise of China’s manufacturing hubs (e.g., Foxconn’s facilities). Building equivalent factories could cost billions, amortized over fewer units initially due to limited capacity. Analysts estimate this could add $50–$100 per unit in overhead. Automation might offset some labor costs, but the upfront investment would still elevate prices.
4) Design and Programming: Apple’s R&D and software development are already U.S.-based, costing billions annually (e.g., $18.75 billion in 2020). These fixed costs, spread across millions of units, wouldn’t change significantly per unit, but any expansion of domestic talent to replace overseas engineering could slightly increase expenses (e.g., 5–10% more, or $10–$20 per unit).
5) Scale and Supply Chain: China’s ecosystem allows for rapid, cost-efficient production (e.g., 500,000 iPhones daily). Replicating this in the U.S. would require decades and massive investment, reducing economies of scale. Some estimates suggest production might drop from hundreds of millions to single-digit millions annually, pushing per-unit costs higher. Extreme scenarios propose costs of $30,000–$100,000 if supply chains collapse and output shrinks drastically, though this assumes near-total inefficiency.
Combining these factors, a realistic middle-ground estimate emerges:
Raw materials and processing: $800–$1,500 (up from $400–$500).
Labor (mining, refining, assembly): $200–$500 (up from $10–$50).
Manufacturing overhead: $50–$100.
Design/programming: $10–$20 increase.
Total production cost: $1,060–$2,120 per unit.
With Apple’s current profit margins (e.g., 60%), retail prices could range from $1,700 to $3,400. However, some analysts suggest costs could climb higher—$2,400–$3,500 per unit—if supply chain inefficiencies persist, pushing retail prices to $4,000 or more. Extreme estimates of $30,000+ arise from scenarios where production scales down dramatically (e.g., to a few million units), but this seems unlikely given Apple’s ability to adapt.
Stopped reading there.
For instance, China supplies 85% of global rare earths, and there are no bauxite mines for aluminum in the U.S
So what? The largest producer of bauxite ore is Oz. One of the largest producers of recycled aluminum is … the United States.
Everything in that article is based on an invalid assumption - Foxconn is ‘obligated’ to source almost everything not Taiwanese through the PRC. If the phone were to be built in the US, it would be built without the inefficiencies of a monorithic communist centrah-pranning confucian backwater motard PRC.
This was an exercise in Stupidity!
So you've forgotten about the Duggars? LOL
Interesting.
Multiplied by the number of I-phones that I have to replace, or will ever purchase, this will cost me about $00.00.
So it might cost $500 more to manufacture.
That’s nothing.
It didn’t factor in the fact that there are no cellphone factories in the Americas (both continents). So first you have to build a factory. Which you shouldn’t really do because so much of the market is in Asia.
Thank you.
Fortunately, I had.
If we kept the slaves of our past, they too could be making Apple phones I suppose.
Simple economics 101. The key is what is the retail price elasticity?
Samsung S25 Ultra is a direct competitor with iPhone. S Korea is an ally while China a competitor/enemy
iPhone are just about all made in China. Here (AI) is where the S25 is made>>>>
Where Is the Samsung Galaxy S25 Ultra Manufactured?
Samsung does not publicly disclose the exact manufacturing locations for specific models like the S25 Ultra on a per-unit basis, as production varies by region and demand. However, based on Samsung’s global supply chain practices, the Galaxy S25 Ultra is primarily manufactured in three countries:
South Korea: Samsung’s home country hosts key facilities, such as the plant in Gumi, where high-end models like the Ultra series are often assembled for quality control and initial production runs.
Vietnam: The majority of Samsung smartphones, including flagships, are produced in Vietnam, particularly at factories in Bac Ninh and Thai Nguyen. Vietnam accounts for over 50% of Samsung’s global phone output due to cost efficiency and scale.
India: The Noida factory, one of the world’s largest mobile manufacturing plants, produces Galaxy devices for the Indian market and export, likely including the S25 Ultra.
Components like the display (Samsung Display) and chipset (Qualcomm, fabricated by TSMC in Taiwan) are sourced globally, but final assembly occurs in these primary locations. The specific origin of an individual S25 Ultra depends on the market it’s sold in—e.g., units for the U.S. are typically assembled in Vietnam......
while some Asian markets may receive South Korean-made devices. You can check the manufacturing origin of a specific unit by examining the box or using the phone’s IMEI number via Samsung’s support channels, though this isn’t always detailed beyond “Made in [Country].”
Considering how much of tariffs tends to get eaten by the supplier, it might not even come to that.
“If you bring a bunch of high paying jobs back and there are jobs for everyone who is willing to do the work and improve skills etc no one is going to care if it cost more because they’ll also have more. “
Most of the high paying jobs in companies like Apple and many others ARE HERE ALREADY. They are not in production. They are in the R&D and design and engineering, supply chain managing, programming and development. But those jobs are many times fewer in number than all the jobs in production, even with automation. The point of the article on that point is clear - multiply the “lowe paying” jobs in production, times the higher U.S. labor costs and “moving” jobs to the U.S.” is not about moving high paying jobs, but it is about moving (or supplying) a great many jobs and at much higher labor costs above what Apple has now.
And when it comes to U.S. labor costs, when jobs become more plentiful than the willing supply of possible job holders, you can expect labor costs to go up and companies try higher starting salaries to attract the employees thet need. Those sorts of things trickle through the economy as other unrelated companies try to compete for the talent pool. On one side it appears as a plus - average wages, but on the other side it is cost for business which along the way bleeds into prices at the retail level. THE ONLY WAY THE U.S. CAN ESCAPE aborbing all that additional labor cost is the U.S. has to become a global exporting manufacturer to increase - in mass - the units being produced, to spread U.S. labor costs into massive numbers of units, to being able to sell worldwide competitively. If all “brining it home” did was replace imports with domestic production, all wages and all prices as well would likely go up, with increased prices offsetting wage gains. Asian economies have mostly missed that conundrum by manufacturing massively more than their own consumers can consume. That is not what U.S. manufacturing does today and not what policy makers are seeking to achieve. The sole goal seems to be merely to import less. That will not be enough.
Same for all the other brands of phones made in Samsung’s China plant.
I’m not so sure about that. Retirees for example won’t add to their income and will see increases. True boomers are almost retired but X has begun and they definitely are technologically involved.
I say: Let Apple put a $4000 iPhone on the market and see how long is takes that 60% profit margin to get crushed. Also, my guess is that Apple has already considered what would happen if the supply chain was significantly altered. I’ll bet there are contingency plans already in place should things go south.
Problem solvers cannot beat the decades it will take to bring that sort of production on line - assuming they can find a place to put the plant where 200,000 workers are easily available for hire.
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