Posted on 03/05/2025 9:32:51 AM PST by Miami Rebel
The ink is barely dry on Trump’s 10% tariff on Canadian energy, and already, fuel prices are bracing for impact. As Gasbuddy's Patrick De Haan puts it, “The real-world impact of tariffs won’t be to shift refining patterns, instead, it will be to add costs throughout the system.” Translation? Expect to shell out more at the pump.
So why can’t U.S. refiners swap out Canadian crude for American oil? Simple: decades of infrastructure, billions in investment, and the laws of physics. The pipeline system serving the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Rockies was built to transport Canadian heavy crude south—not the light, sweet variety coming from Texas or North Dakota. That’s like asking a downhill skier to suddenly ski uphill.
Then there’s the small issue of refinery compatibility. The facilities designed for Canadian heavy crude aren’t just being picky—they literally can’t process light U.S. shale oil without a multi-billion-dollar retrofit. As GasBuddy explains, it’s like filling a diesel truck with regular gasoline. Could it be done? Sure, if you don’t mind catastrophic failure.
Where will it hurt most? According to Gas Buddy, the Northeast is first in line for sticker shock, as it depends heavily on refined products from Canada. Prices there could spike 20-40 cents per gallon by mid-March. The Midwest and Great Lakes regions, where Canadian crude feeds local refineries, will see increases of 5-25 cents per gallon in the coming weeks. The Rockies won’t be spared either, with hikes of 10-20 cents expected.
Meanwhile, oil prices have already dropped on the news, with WTI at $67.31 and Brent at $70.27—a sign that traders anticipate demand destruction. But don’t celebrate just yet. Those lower crude prices aren’t translating to savings at the pump. Instead, consumers are about to get caught between tariffs, refinery bottlenecks, and seasonal price hikes.
(Excerpt) Read more at oilprice.com ...
Well, the situation in Trump’s 1st term was much different. A little thing called the COVID shutdowns. :-(
Here’s a link to an interactive chart of the actual history. Please note the period of Trump’s term pre-COVID.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/leafhandler.ashx?f=m&n=pet&s=emm_epm0_pte_nus_dpg
The markets tell another story today that is for sure.
The only wrinkle here in Pennsylvania is that a law was passed that when the wholesale gasoline price drops the tax increases.
Gasoline taxed at wholesale was signed into law by then Republican Governor Tom Corbett some years ago.
Who cares. We’re no longer governed by the criminals from BOTH political parties.
A refinery will pay a delivered cost at their “gate”. Transportation, storage, royalty/taxes/tariffs get eaten by the supplier.
There’s some producers in west Texas who have no royalty, others 10% to maybe 25%. All of that oil gets paid the same price by the pipeline, what the producer keeps depends on how much royalty they have to pay out.
Just the way it is.
The problem is political (well, for people like me on very tight retirement budgets, it’s in our wallets, but I’ll just go graze in the yard with the chickens - what the heck.)
Anyway, the political problem comes if prices in general are up in 2026. That could push Congress to the Dems, and THAT would be a bloody disaster. Hello, President Jeffries? OMG...
I agree about “longer term”, but the problem is getting there.
hmmm and yet oil futures have dropped ffrom $80 at the beginning of the year to $67 now...
There hasn’t been a refinery built in the US since 2008.
“Short term the (subsidized) suppliers will take a hit at sales — which will force sales back to US suppliers”
Seriously: what does that mean? Who is a “subsidized supplier”? And what makes you think that refiners absorb price hikes without passing them on?
As for the rest of your post, it has zero to do with the story.
See the reference to “demand destruction” in the article. It means that declining expectations for economic growth have sent WTI spiraling.
In 2017, GasBuddy launched a gas savings program titled "Pay with GasBuddy" intended to let consumers save at gas stations in the United States.[6]As to Oil Price, itis part of a larger MEDIA concern, and the Oil Price folks are Brits, as shown by an exceprt from their Terms and Conditions: "governed by and construed in accordance with the law of England and Wales and each party agrees to submit to the exclusive jurisdiction of the courts of England and Wales."In the same year, GasBuddy was involved in a lawsuit with Reveal Mobile, a location-based marketing company, over the sale of user location data. It was revealed that GasBuddy sold information on more than 4.5 million users to Reveal each month for $9.50 per 1000 users.[7] According to CNET, that information included "users' latitude, longitude, IP address, and time stamps on the data collected," which sparked concern in the media and between its users.
All in all, we are data to these people. Information to be sold.
As to gas prices, my bride and I are happy to pay a little more to stick it to Trudeau. And Doug Ford.
US refiners largely rely on high-sulfur Canadian crude.
High tariffs will obviously jack up the price to the refiners, hence higher prices at the pump.
Do you understand price flexibility? If the world price is $68/bbl, how does Canada sell it at $80? They don’t, Canada eats the tariff and pays America.
And oil stocks are slightly down instead of zooming up as one might expect if this was true ...
No, no, no, no, no, and NO.
Marathon in Galveston cannot swap out light, sweet Texas crude for the gloopy stuff that comes out of Canada’s Athabasca range.
But beyond that, on what planet does a producer subsidize a consumer at a loss?? US refiners have the option of shutting down production, but short of that they’re SOOL.
$2.58 at my favorite place.
Prices vary. If they get bumped $.20 or $.40 per gallon, some drivers will mind and some won’t.
Short term pain for long term gain.
Oil does not = gasoline. Please read the article again.
I believe he just did, unless some RAT judge stopped it.
Trump is very good at getting gas prices down. I know you want him to fail for your boy down there, but you will be wrong.
No, he didn’t. He said he wanted it, but the original developer TC Energy, originally TransCanada Pipeline) has moved on and no other company has expressed an interest as yet.
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