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I am a serious energy investor. Close to half my portfolio is in oil and gas stocks, particularly pipeline stocks and units.

My single largest position is Enterprise Products, the premier oil and gas pipeline operator, and among my other top twenty are South Bow, Vitesse Energy, Expand energy (formerly Chesapeake Energy,) and Tortoise Energy Infrastructure (a pipeline fund.)

The idea that the US is going to be entering an oil-drilling boom is ludicrous. We are already at record-high production.

Production companies boomed with the advent of fracking in the early teens, which is why production went through the roof even under an anti-fossil fuel Obama administration. The new horizontal drilling technology trumped the government's best effort to squelch production.

As with most innovations, enthusiasm led to a massive overspending on new fields. When WTI sold off from the $80s and $90s to the $30s in 2015-2016, a host of marginal players got wiped out and a lot of more-established players were forced to tighten their belts just to survive.

Shareholders and banks wrote off billions.

The lesson from that was that expanding production in good times is a high-risk proposition, which is why in the last ten years oil companies have prioritized share buybacks over new production.

And the proposition that oil and gas companies now are chomping at the bit to expand production is supremely illogical: why should they be the agents of lower prices? To build production from current levels means to boost surpluses that will drive down prices, resulting in their new investments going underwater.

Between the economic constraints energy producers face, there is the shared history of massive losses the last time the industry boosted supplies.

I would be shocked if overall production increases even 10%.

1 posted on 02/02/2025 4:51:04 PM PST by Miami Rebel
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To: Miami Rebel

BS!

Empty Stategic Petroleum Reserve


2 posted on 02/02/2025 4:58:39 PM PST by LurkingSince'98 (Ad Majoram Dei Gloriam = FOR THE GREATER GLORY OF GOD)
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To: Miami Rebel

Interesting. What about all the small independent companies that want in on the action?

They’re cheaper. The idea is to undercut OPEC and the Russians.


3 posted on 02/02/2025 4:59:03 PM PST by DIRTYSECRET
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To: Miami Rebel

If the oil companies increase or even decrease production the price of oil will come down as competition for the product takes place. Who cares if production is increased or not, the competition will drive PRICE DOWN. That will determine whose oil is purchased. You want to stay in the game, you’ll have to supply cheap oil.


5 posted on 02/02/2025 5:00:34 PM PST by jacknhoo (Luke 12:51; Think ye, that I am come to give peace on earth? I tell you, no; but separation.)
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To: Miami Rebel

Just take all that green money and give it to the oil companies with strings attached. We would have lots of oil.


6 posted on 02/02/2025 5:01:53 PM PST by Revel
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To: Miami Rebel

We had it during his first term. We were an oil exporter that caused Iran to almost go broke.


7 posted on 02/02/2025 5:01:54 PM PST by SkyDancer ( ~ Am Yisrael Chai ~)
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To: Miami Rebel
Yes, its all about saving capital right now. Only higher product prices will lead to more production. The industry is focused on exports, and look for more federal action on local actions on pipelines. Lots of bottlenecks on pipe transport and those pesky private property owners in the way.
8 posted on 02/02/2025 5:01:56 PM PST by Theoria
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To: Miami Rebel

Indeed, other rumors/scuttlebutt we hear is that Trump will have Saudi Arabia open the oil spigots - but the first to shut in production, or even be bankrupted, would be US oil producers

We now have also tariffed our biggest oil supplier, Canada, which will have the effect of slashing capital investment there. Its also throwing a political life-line to Trudeau and the Liberal Party, who were about to absolutely trounced by the Conservatives.


9 posted on 02/02/2025 5:04:07 PM PST by PGR88
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To: Miami Rebel

Yes but it takes time. All their plans have been based around green new bullshit for fours now. Trump will no doubt offer incentives to get the industry on warp speed.


10 posted on 02/02/2025 5:04:54 PM PST by bigbob (Yes. We ARE going back!)
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To: Miami Rebel

Pipeline expert? I have a real stupid idea I just wanted to bounce it off of someone. is a pipeline from Nova Scotia to Greenland to Scotland to Europe feasible?

By the way line up those refineries and those tankers and whatever it takes to ship the oil out cause we need to drill baby drill and bring the price down. Energy independence here we come. Damn the torpedoes full speed ahead.

Never say can’t. Trump’s gonna steamroll right over all the can’t doers.


11 posted on 02/02/2025 5:05:49 PM PST by Jim Robinson (Resistance to tyranny is obedience to God.)
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To: Miami Rebel

Let’s not forget the record number of new regulations forced down the throat of American industry. If that can be paired back that will result in a cost savings to the energy companies.


14 posted on 02/02/2025 5:24:25 PM PST by VeniVidiVici (If you're Black don't Vote Blue cuz then you'll just be Black and Blue)
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To: Miami Rebel
...However, oil majors are concerned that increasing oil and gas output even further could create a glut and drive prices down, something they want to avoid...

This sounds an awful lot like a "combination in restraint of trade" to me. A legal position to be avoided at all costs.

Oil and gas leases on public lands need to be on a use it or lose it basis. We need to turn some lean, hungry barbarians loose among the fat cats.

20 posted on 02/02/2025 5:43:16 PM PST by CurlyDave (I helped vote the felon into power.)
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To: Miami Rebel
"Can Trump Really Boost U.S. Oil Production?"

No, but he can remove the regulatory roadblocks that prevent them doing it themselves, then the rest will come naturally.

DRILL, BABY, DRILL!

21 posted on 02/02/2025 5:43:38 PM PST by Paal Gulli
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To: Miami Rebel
The United States has an estimated 38.2 billion barrels of untapped oil reserves. However, the amount of oil that can be recovered from these reserves depends on several factors, including the cost of extraction and the current economic conditions.

In 2023, the United States consumed about 7.39 billion barrels of petroleum, or about 20.25 million barrels per day.

Pedal your rabid Trump hating propaganda somewhere else. No one interested in hearing what new lie you manufactured to push today

22 posted on 02/02/2025 5:46:17 PM PST by MNJohnnie (Don't blame me, my congressman is MTG!)
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To: Miami Rebel

Oh got it. You aren’t divested and are panicking that President Trumps moves will drive down your stock value.


24 posted on 02/02/2025 5:49:02 PM PST by MNJohnnie (Don't blame me, my congressman is MTG!)
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To: Miami Rebel

They could sell more to other countries.


26 posted on 02/02/2025 5:49:56 PM PST by roving (Deplorable MAGA Garbage )
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To: Miami Rebel
Oh yeah about that "record production" currently

According to the EIA, the US matched and surpassed its 2019 record oil production levels in 2023, averaging 12.9 million barrels per day, which was higher than the 2019 record of 12.3 million barrels per day

In 2024 the US was averaging 13.2 million barrels per day.

For context:

In 2024, the United States consumed an average of about 20.45 million barrels of petroleum per day.

31 posted on 02/02/2025 6:08:34 PM PST by MNJohnnie (Don't blame me, my congressman is MTG!)
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To: Miami Rebel
The idea that the US is going to be entering an oil-drilling boom is ludicrous. We are already at record-high production.

It must be happening somewhere else besides East Texas. It has yet to recover here.

33 posted on 02/02/2025 6:14:58 PM PST by eastexsteve
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To: Miami Rebel

When are the prices of tires supposed to come down as well as other products made with petroleum? Methinks the greed is over the top with these folks among others. Have noticed throughout the years that when gasoline prices drop, for instance, prices on other items that utilize petroleum remain more or less the same. Many of these companies refuse to take the hit to their bottom line like the rest of US small timers.


34 posted on 02/02/2025 6:15:53 PM PST by LastDayz (A Blunt and Brazen Texan. I Will Not Be Assimilated.)
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To: Miami Rebel

How empty is the Strategic Petroleum Reserve currently? Let’s fill it if/as prices fall.
What would 10 new nuclear power plants add to our grid capacity? Let’s begin building in expedited National energy emergency fashion. Let’s stop coal plant shutdowns and add natural gas electric plants.
Where could we improve pipeline access and coverage here? Must we depend on Canada to supply oil and natural gas etc to Wisconsin and Michigan? Could we supply them internally?
Could we not log our own trees and mill them into lumber rather than buy Canadian?


40 posted on 02/02/2025 7:11:16 PM PST by desertsolitaire ( Lee Harvey Oswald and the Bands final performance)
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To: Miami Rebel

Prepare for shock. 😉


52 posted on 02/03/2025 6:29:46 AM PST by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped)
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