Anyone Able to Enlighten on the House Races?

[SarahPalin2012]

I'll accept even a tiny R Majority, but we also desperately need the House to get things done like election reform.

[BamaBelle]

I was just wondering the same thing. I believe we have 213 of the 218 needed, but having trouble finding out which 5 we have best chance with...

[apillar]

It will probably take days if not weeks as about 20 are too close to call and subject to recounts. But the betting markets are giving Republicans an 88/11 chance of holding the House, so it looks like the smart money thinks they’ll win enough of the remaining races.

[SarahPalin2012]

Good news. Thank God. And thank you for the info.

[BamaBelle]

I just want to say before I change my tagine that I am so proud of my state. One day voting and 95% of the vote is in. One day voting with fast results is possible!

[11th_VA]

This:

https://www1.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2024/house/

To date: R 190 (+3), D 172 (-3)

[Pollard]

[Tennessee Nana]

In TN Steve Cohen (D) kept his TN-9 seat (Memphis/Shelby County area) The rest of the 8 seats are still (R) with all of the Congressmen reelected...

Marsha Blackburn was reelected to the Senate...

WOO WOO

[Gay State Conservative]

We’ve gotta wait for Kalifornia.

[PermaRag]

I posted this last night. Updates in a subsequent post to come.

House districts to watch (not in any particular order):

BEST PICKUP CHANCES:

NC-6 (already gained)
NC-13 (ditto)
NC-14 (ditto)
CA-47
MI-7
ME-2
NM-2
CO-8
CT-5
WA-3
AK-at large
TX-34
OH-9
PA-7 (teaser, but possible)
PA-8 (ditto)

BEST LOSS CHANCES:

NY-22 (already lost)
AL-2 (ditto)
LA-6 (ditto)
NY-4
NE-2
NY-19
PA-10
IA-1
OR-5
AZ-6
AZ-1
IA-3
CA-13
CA-27
CA-41
CA-45
CA-22

This doesn’t mean that NO other districts could flip (like MI-10 for example), but these are the tossiest of the toss-ups.

[nathanbedford]

Tax bills constitutionally must begin in the House so Democrat control of that part of Congress means that the Democrats can and will disrupt virtually every fiscal reform that Trump intends to enact. Even more important, any reform that is forced upon the nation by the impending recession will be held hostage by Democrats because the House is supposed to be the people's House, is in operation the least democratic institution as it normally operates in lockstep with a vice- like grip of its leadership.

That is a Democrat controlled House marches in lockstep, it is the Republicans who fall disunited upon one another and ruin their majority control of that institution.

If the Republic faces a true budget crisis involving a really scary event involving the failed sale of our bonds to roll over the debt, such as occurred in Britain recently that resulted in the ouster of the Prime Minister, the Democrats will, as controllers of the House, force the Republicans into a hideous continuing resolution which might proof unsatisfactory to the bond market or which might force the president and the Senate to incur a government shutdown. Government shutdown to rational people is a rational step but the media in America will contrive to make it a catastrophe to be blamed on the Republicans. Under such pressure Republicans are famous for the tenancy to buckle.

For the truly serious business of saving America, that is, saving America from financial ruin, it is vital that we hold the House.

[Gay State Conservative]

I've visited...driven through,actually...Tennessee once. I was on my way north and drove through Memphis and,having some free time,I stopped at Graceland.

I only realized recently that Memphis is a real cesspool. But electing that filthy Maoist proves to me that it is,in fact,a cesspool.

[PermaRag]

Pickup adjustments to the list I posted:

MI-7 has been won. NM-2 has been lost. CT-5 has been lost. TX-34 has been lost. These are NOT ACTUAL LOSSES OF SEATS, just failed pickups. Add NV-3 and maybe CA-9 to the list of possible pickups. Perhaps MD-6 which is VERY close to being picked up, but probably will disappoint.

Loss adjustments:

None yet because most of these are not decided. Some are not looking so bad but do NOT count any chickens in the 3 PA districts where things are looking OK (PA-7, PA-8, PA-10). In 2020 we had exactly 3 PA districts which also looked OK on election night.... and then they all flipped to the bad side several days later.

[MayflowerMadam]

When we moved to TN, we were told that there are three separate states (in theory, not on a map). Very distinct. Someone said that’s the reason there are three stars on our flag, but I don’t know if that’s true.

[PermaRag]

Actually, scratch IA-3 (but not IA-1) off the possible loss list. Nunn was able to hold on for the Republicans.

[DFG]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/house-results

[packagingguy]

Cohen is a goofball. I’m glad not to live in his district; it’s only a few streets away.

[MayflowerMadam]

Cohen is a pig.

Blackburn is a traitor. (But she’s our traitor. I wonder if she’ll vote to NOT certify the election this time around.)

[PermaRag]

For even more info on the House races, this was posted a few weeks ago (obviously before votes were being counted) and it's working out just as expected (I predicted GOP -2 to -8 on another thread) so far:

2024 Election Analysis: Will Republicans Hold the House?

Scroll to the bottom for all the district details.

[Tommy Revolts]

Here's what I can't wrap my mind around. How do you vote for Trump and then vote for (D) Senate or House?

That's like saying I want Trump to win but not be able to get anything done.