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BigEdLB has a final guess (Vanity)
BigEdLB ^ | 11/4/24 | BigEdLB

Posted on 11/04/2024 7:31:35 AM PST by BigEdLB


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KEYWORDS: california; trump
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My finalguess
1 posted on 11/04/2024 7:31:35 AM PST by BigEdLB
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To: BigEdLB

2 posted on 11/04/2024 7:34:14 AM PST by hole_n_one
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To: BigEdLB

Reagan mapish? ๐Ÿ™


3 posted on 11/04/2024 7:34:15 AM PST by rktman (Destroy America from within ? Check! WTH? Enlisted USN 1967 to end up with this๐Ÿ’ฉ? ๐Ÿšซ๐Ÿ’‰! ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‘!)
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To: rktman

Yup


4 posted on 11/04/2024 7:35:39 AM PST by BigEdLB ( Letโ€™s go Brandon)
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To: BigEdLB

You should get a job at Fivethirtyeight!!


5 posted on 11/04/2024 7:35:39 AM PST by lasereye
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To: BigEdLB
Pretty optimistic. Would be nice to get NH, NM, MN, and WI.

The only thing that causes me to think this isn't likely is that I'm not sure how secure the voting is. With all the loose procedures with early voting, absentee, provisional, same-day registration and all that, and the warnings being sent out that the results might not be in for a few weeks has me uneasy.

But, in a real world, where the election has integrity, I believe these numbers are spot on.

6 posted on 11/04/2024 7:37:17 AM PST by Repealthe17thAmendment
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To: BigEdLB

7 posted on 11/04/2024 7:38:12 AM PST by MtnClimber (For photos of scenery and wildlife, click on my screen name for my FR home page. More photos added.)
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To: BigEdLB

Thanks for putting it on the line.


8 posted on 11/04/2024 7:38:18 AM PST by cgbg ("Our democracy" = Their Kleptocracy)
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To: lasereye

I am straight and too conservative for Silver


9 posted on 11/04/2024 7:38:36 AM PST by BigEdLB ( Letโ€™s go Brandon)
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To: BigEdLB

You are spot on CD-2 in Maine. I am not sure President Trump carries the entire state however.


10 posted on 11/04/2024 7:41:14 AM PST by Maine Mariner
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To: BigEdLB

Wins the popular vote by 7, huh? That’d be fun. I think he’s going to win, but I’m not going that far.


11 posted on 11/04/2024 7:42:41 AM PST by Big E
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To: BigEdLB

The conclusion you make here is correct, but those numbers.... hmm, I’ll take a win and a nice one. But coming within 5 in New Jersey and winning PA by >10...don’t know about that.


12 posted on 11/04/2024 7:43:30 AM PST by pburgh01
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To: MtnClimber

Actually, Shark Steak is pretty tasty...


13 posted on 11/04/2024 7:44:06 AM PST by BigEdLB ( Letโ€™s go Brandon)
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To: BigEdLB

From your keyboard to the Big Guys screen beyond the sky.


14 posted on 11/04/2024 7:44:18 AM PST by spokeshave (Proud Boys, Angry Dads. Grumpy Grandads & Curmudgeons)
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To: BigEdLB

The thing that jumped out at me is how close you have Illinois - maybe 1.5%? - much closer than either NJ or NY.


15 posted on 11/04/2024 7:45:14 AM PST by Burma Jones
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To: BigEdLB

Bump


16 posted on 11/04/2024 7:45:18 AM PST by orlop9
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To: Burma Jones

Black men in Chicago are PISSED big time


17 posted on 11/04/2024 7:46:31 AM PST by BigEdLB ( Letโ€™s go Brandon)
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To: BigEdLB

Actually, Silver has nothing to do with Fivethirtyeight anymore.


18 posted on 11/04/2024 7:47:01 AM PST by lasereye
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To: BigEdLB

Is this all just your gut or have you done something with data?


19 posted on 11/04/2024 7:48:07 AM PST by lasereye
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To: BigEdLB

Yes it is!


20 posted on 11/04/2024 7:51:17 AM PST by rktman (Destroy America from within ? Check! WTH? Enlisted USN 1967 to end up with this๐Ÿ’ฉ? ๐Ÿšซ๐Ÿ’‰! ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‘!)
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