Posted on 10/28/2024 1:44:22 PM PDT by FLT-bird
The state of the race with only ONE WEEK until Election Day! Plus, early vote, new live polling, betting markets and predictions!
Interesting insights about who is voting, who is not voting and Barnes has a really interesting theory that Shapiro deliberately set up that 2500 fraudulent ballot scheme in Pennsylvania in order to deliberately get caught....so as to discourage anybody else from trying it and to provide cover to himself with Democrats as he quietly sabotages Heels Up Harris in Pennsylvania every chance he gets. Fetterman is already telling the Unions that Trump is going to roll in Pennsylvania.
Wow, what a wild theory in PA!!
The Shapiro story ruins the rest of the stories credibility for me.
Oh absolutely why should Shapiro give cover to Harris and help her to four even eight years in the WH. When he has eyes on the same role. No one be blaming him if PA falls to Trump; he knows the world will hand this loss around Harris’ neck
“According to Baris with the Republicans holding a 100,000 vote lead in Arizona and over half the vote already in, that state is in all likelihood already gone for Heels Up Harris.”
You scared me. That sentence could have two opposing meanings.
NH?
Maine?
Virginia?
New Mexico?
I thought the same thing! I know the meaning is that Trump likely wins...but it certainly could be taken the other way. I still worry about the cheat there.
No love lost between Harris and Shapiro. That leak by the mayor of Philly was no accident, it was done deliberately to bring out opposition to a Jewish VP, an excuse to pick Walz. And then to further humiliate him by announcing the Walz pick in PA.
Yeah, me too.
The small number of mail in ballots means that Virginia should be ours this time.
I am calling a 5% Trump win based on the Republicans hanging in there on the early votes.
>> According to Baris with the Republicans holding a 100,000 vote lead in Arizona and over half the vote already in, that state is in all likelihood already gone for Heels Up Harris.
I had to read that three times before it made any sense.
You’re saying NOT that “Arizona has gone for Harris!” but rather “Arizona WON’T go into Harris’ column”. Right?
-PJ
Baris keeps referring to possibilities in Maine. I haven’t watched today’s episode yet as I’m watching the latest Candace Owens Kamala exposé episode which is VERY interesting...will watch Baris next.
No one is undecided
Low third party turnout which favors Harris
52-48 Senate Republicans
Republicans take the house by 2
I have been bullish on Trump in blue wall. Working class.
Women concern me. Are they really that motivated for Harris? They know abortion is a state ballot/managed issue now.
However, in red states, abortion bills are passing but women are voting Trump at the top.
I don't know how many males will split ticket Trump/yes on abortion.
Majority of females in red states are Trump.
Wish it was 525-13 Trump
Trump 302-322
No matter if Trump wins in a landslide. The Democrats already have at least 5 areas ready with their motions pencilled in.
They will challenge it.
I have no idea of the 5 favorable justices/districts they have already chosen to challenge .
Just know, the celebration party will be cut short.
They will modify their language and say this is exactly how you challenge results yada yada. Peaceful. We aren't saying it was stolen. We're different from Trump
“...Republicans take the house by 2...”
If Republicans take the Senate 52-48 then I cannot imagine they barely hold on to the House by only 2 reps. They should at least keep the House by 9-10 seats.
Correct. Trump is going to win Arizona by 5-6 percent
They discuss each of those in detail.
Its a theory. But Shapiro has every incentive to sabotage Harris. She humiliated him AND she stands in the way of his ambition to run for president in 2028. Shapiro is the same guy who as sec of state in Pennsylvania and in charge of overseeing elections said before 2020 that Allegheny county would "find" the votes for Biden. He's dirty. Would he resort to dirty pool to take out Harris? Hell yes he would.
Here is the overall probability map based on the polls and their associated margins of error:
Some callouts:
Here is the aggregate probability distribution based on 5,000 Monte Carlo iterations:
Here is the battleground states analysis:
Here is the overall probability map for the Senate elections (black means no Senate election in that state):
Here is the aggregate probability distribution based on 5,000 Monte Carlo iterations:
Here is the battleground states analysis:
-PJ
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.