[FLT-bird]

According to Baris with the Republicans holding a 100,000 vote lead in Arizona and over half the vote already in, that state is in all likelihood already gone for Heels Up Harris. Trump looks highly likely to carry Nevada too based on the early voting there.

Interesting insights about who is voting, who is not voting and Barnes has a really interesting theory that Shapiro deliberately set up that 2500 fraudulent ballot scheme in Pennsylvania in order to deliberately get caught....so as to discourage anybody else from trying it and to provide cover to himself with Democrats as he quietly sabotages Heels Up Harris in Pennsylvania every chance he gets. Fetterman is already telling the Unions that Trump is going to roll in Pennsylvania.

[ProtectOurFreedom]

Wow, what a wild theory in PA!!

[God luvs America]

The Shapiro story ruins the rest of the stories credibility for me.

[Swanks]

Oh absolutely why should Shapiro give cover to Harris and help her to four even eight years in the WH. When he has eyes on the same role. No one be blaming him if PA falls to Trump; he knows the world will hand this loss around Harris’ neck

[willk]

“According to Baris with the Republicans holding a 100,000 vote lead in Arizona and over half the vote already in, that state is in all likelihood already gone for Heels Up Harris.”

You scared me. That sentence could have two opposing meanings.

[TornadoAlley3]

NH?
Maine?
Virginia?
New Mexico?

[philippa]

No love lost between Harris and Shapiro. That leak by the mayor of Philly was no accident, it was done deliberately to bring out opposition to a Jewish VP, an excuse to pick Walz. And then to further humiliate him by announcing the Walz pick in PA.

[Nervous Tick]

>> According to Baris with the Republicans holding a 100,000 vote lead in Arizona and over half the vote already in, that state is in all likelihood already gone for Heels Up Harris.

I had to read that three times before it made any sense.
You’re saying NOT that “Arizona has gone for Harris!” but rather “Arizona WON’T go into Harris’ column”. Right?

[Political Junkie Too]

Ping for later.

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

I haven't had a chance to watch the video yet, but here are my model's outputs as of today.

Here is the overall probability map based on the polls and their associated margins of error:

Some callouts:

1. The Expected Value (probability-weighted average of all 5,000 Monte Carlo iterations) is 281 Electoral College Votes for Trump.
2. The P10 is the value that has a 10% chance OR LESS of occurring. The P10 is 219.
3. The P50 is the median value where 50% of the results are higher and 50% of the results are lower. The P50 is 291.
4. The P90 is the value that has a 90% chance OR LESS of occurring. The P90 is 325.
5. The probability of Trump getting 270 OR MORE ECV is 63.7%.

Here is the aggregate probability distribution based on 5,000 Monte Carlo iterations:

Here is the battleground states analysis:

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And on the Senate side...

Here is the overall probability map for the Senate elections (black means no Senate election in that state):

Here is the aggregate probability distribution based on 5,000 Monte Carlo iterations:

Here is the battleground states analysis:

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-PJ