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What are the Odds? Baris and Barnes
Rumble ^

Posted on 10/28/2024 1:44:22 PM PDT by FLT-bird

The state of the race with only ONE WEEK until Election Day! Plus, early vote, new live polling, betting markets and predictions!


TOPICS: Society
KEYWORDS: nevada
According to Baris with the Republicans holding a 100,000 vote lead in Arizona and over half the vote already in, that state is in all likelihood already gone for Heels Up Harris. Trump looks highly likely to carry Nevada too based on the early voting there.

Interesting insights about who is voting, who is not voting and Barnes has a really interesting theory that Shapiro deliberately set up that 2500 fraudulent ballot scheme in Pennsylvania in order to deliberately get caught....so as to discourage anybody else from trying it and to provide cover to himself with Democrats as he quietly sabotages Heels Up Harris in Pennsylvania every chance he gets. Fetterman is already telling the Unions that Trump is going to roll in Pennsylvania.

1 posted on 10/28/2024 1:44:22 PM PDT by FLT-bird
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To: FLT-bird

Wow, what a wild theory in PA!!


2 posted on 10/28/2024 1:46:49 PM PDT by ProtectOurFreedom (“President Trump sells out Madison Square Garden -- Kamala sells out America”)
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To: FLT-bird

The Shapiro story ruins the rest of the stories credibility for me.


3 posted on 10/28/2024 1:48:53 PM PDT by God luvs America (6young 3.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
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To: FLT-bird

Oh absolutely why should Shapiro give cover to Harris and help her to four even eight years in the WH. When he has eyes on the same role. No one be blaming him if PA falls to Trump; he knows the world will hand this loss around Harris’ neck


4 posted on 10/28/2024 1:48:53 PM PDT by Swanks
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To: FLT-bird

“According to Baris with the Republicans holding a 100,000 vote lead in Arizona and over half the vote already in, that state is in all likelihood already gone for Heels Up Harris.”

You scared me. That sentence could have two opposing meanings.


5 posted on 10/28/2024 1:52:01 PM PDT by willk (Local news media. Just as big an enemy to this country as national media)
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To: FLT-bird

NH?
Maine?
Virginia?
New Mexico?


6 posted on 10/28/2024 1:55:01 PM PDT by TornadoAlley3 ( I'm Proud To Be An Okie From Muskogee)
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To: willk

I thought the same thing! I know the meaning is that Trump likely wins...but it certainly could be taken the other way. I still worry about the cheat there.


7 posted on 10/28/2024 1:59:54 PM PDT by woweeitsme
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To: willk
You scared me. That sentence could have two opposing meanings.

That was my initial reaction too. Heart skipped a couple of beats.
8 posted on 10/28/2024 2:00:05 PM PDT by Dan in Wichita
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To: FLT-bird

No love lost between Harris and Shapiro. That leak by the mayor of Philly was no accident, it was done deliberately to bring out opposition to a Jewish VP, an excuse to pick Walz. And then to further humiliate him by announcing the Walz pick in PA.


9 posted on 10/28/2024 2:02:26 PM PDT by philippa
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To: Dan in Wichita

Yeah, me too.


10 posted on 10/28/2024 2:07:07 PM PDT by The Unknown Republican
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To: TornadoAlley3

The small number of mail in ballots means that Virginia should be ours this time.

I am calling a 5% Trump win based on the Republicans hanging in there on the early votes.


11 posted on 10/28/2024 2:12:11 PM PDT by cgbg ("Our democracy" = Their Kleptocracy)
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To: FLT-bird

>> According to Baris with the Republicans holding a 100,000 vote lead in Arizona and over half the vote already in, that state is in all likelihood already gone for Heels Up Harris.

I had to read that three times before it made any sense.
You’re saying NOT that “Arizona has gone for Harris!” but rather “Arizona WON’T go into Harris’ column”. Right?


12 posted on 10/28/2024 2:19:25 PM PDT by Nervous Tick ("First the Saturday people, then the Sunday people...": ISLAM is the problem!)
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To: FLT-bird
Ping for later.

-PJ

13 posted on 10/28/2024 2:23:36 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too ( * LAAP = Left-wing Activist Agitprop Press (formerly known as the MSM))
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To: TornadoAlley3

Baris keeps referring to possibilities in Maine. I haven’t watched today’s episode yet as I’m watching the latest Candace Owens Kamala exposé episode which is VERY interesting...will watch Baris next.


14 posted on 10/28/2024 2:24:00 PM PDT by BamaBelle ( )
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To: BamaBelle
I think this is a low turnout double haters stay home or leave it blank.

No one is undecided

Low third party turnout which favors Harris

52-48 Senate Republicans
Republicans take the house by 2

I have been bullish on Trump in blue wall. Working class.

Women concern me. Are they really that motivated for Harris? They know abortion is a state ballot/managed issue now.

However, in red states, abortion bills are passing but women are voting Trump at the top.

I don't know how many males will split ticket Trump/yes on abortion.
Majority of females in red states are Trump.

Wish it was 525-13 Trump

Trump 302-322

No matter if Trump wins in a landslide. The Democrats already have at least 5 areas ready with their motions pencilled in.

They will challenge it.

I have no idea of the 5 favorable justices/districts they have already chosen to challenge .

Just know, the celebration party will be cut short.

They will modify their language and say this is exactly how you challenge results yada yada. Peaceful. We aren't saying it was stolen. We're different from Trump

15 posted on 10/28/2024 3:02:51 PM PDT by TornadoAlley3 ( I'm Proud To Be An Okie From Muskogee)
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To: TornadoAlley3

“...Republicans take the house by 2...”

If Republicans take the Senate 52-48 then I cannot imagine they barely hold on to the House by only 2 reps. They should at least keep the House by 9-10 seats.


16 posted on 10/28/2024 3:57:12 PM PDT by Flavious_Maximus (Tony Fauci will be put on death row and die of COVID!)
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To: Nervous Tick

Correct. Trump is going to win Arizona by 5-6 percent


17 posted on 10/28/2024 4:01:02 PM PDT by FLT-bird
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To: TornadoAlley3
NH? Maine? Virginia? New Mexico?

They discuss each of those in detail.

18 posted on 10/28/2024 4:01:46 PM PDT by FLT-bird
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To: God luvs America
The Shapiro story ruins the rest of the stories credibility for me.

Its a theory. But Shapiro has every incentive to sabotage Harris. She humiliated him AND she stands in the way of his ambition to run for president in 2028. Shapiro is the same guy who as sec of state in Pennsylvania and in charge of overseeing elections said before 2020 that Allegheny county would "find" the votes for Biden. He's dirty. Would he resort to dirty pool to take out Harris? Hell yes he would.

19 posted on 10/28/2024 4:04:23 PM PDT by FLT-bird
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To: FLT-bird
I haven't had a chance to watch the video yet, but here are my model's outputs as of today.

Here is the overall probability map based on the polls and their associated margins of error:

Some callouts:

  1. The Expected Value (probability-weighted average of all 5,000 Monte Carlo iterations) is 281 Electoral College Votes for Trump.
  2. The P10 is the value that has a 10% chance OR LESS of occurring. The P10 is 219.
  3. The P50 is the median value where 50% of the results are higher and 50% of the results are lower. The P50 is 291.
  4. The P90 is the value that has a 90% chance OR LESS of occurring. The P90 is 325.
  5. The probability of Trump getting 270 OR MORE ECV is 63.7%.

Here is the aggregate probability distribution based on 5,000 Monte Carlo iterations:

Here is the battleground states analysis:


And on the Senate side...

Here is the overall probability map for the Senate elections (black means no Senate election in that state):

Here is the aggregate probability distribution based on 5,000 Monte Carlo iterations:

Here is the battleground states analysis:


-PJ

20 posted on 10/28/2024 6:04:40 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too ( * LAAP = Left-wing Activist Agitprop Press (formerly known as the MSM))
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