Posted on 09/26/2024 12:11:35 PM PDT by spacejunkie2001
What's the latest on the senate races across the US? I know we're looking good in Montana by Sheehy taking the seat from Tester which, according to Charlie Kirk, gives us the majority(?). We shouldn't have any issue losing Rick Scott in FLA (with some 'tard running against him on abortion, essentially). I think Cruz is in good shape.
What about the other races where it looks like we'll pick up a seat or 3?
And related, how are we looking in the congressional races?
Hogan is not an R 90% of the time. The only thing he helps is deciding who is in the majority. That’s pretty much meaningless (i.e. R majority leaders are UniParty always).
Because it’s now a numbers game.
You purists tear me up. I hate Hogan. I despise Hogan. I live in Maryland. I know Hogan. So you’d rather get none of what you want instead of part of what you want. So you want the DemonRat to win. SMH.
There are no policies of relevance with $36T in debt. Nothing can be done.
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That’s about the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard. Why don’t you kill yourself then if everything is so hopeless?
That’s the difference between a real Conservative and feckless RINO’s. People will be happy if fatso gets elected and votes with Republicans 70% of the time.
Meanwhile the rats get in line with their party and vote party lines 100% of the time...
btw- speaking of “purists”, how’s that Mike Johnson working out as “majority” speaker of the house?
I will be persecuted under hogan or his opponent.
I just ran the interactive and I say we end up at 59/41.
Pick ups: AZ, MD, MI, WI, WV, NV, MT, NE, OH, PA.
Better than Hakeem Jeffries would.
👍
That’s the difference between a real Conservative and feckless RINO’s. People will be happy if fatso gets elected and votes with Republicans 70% of the time.
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Yes that’s the difference between a real, logical, rational conservative and a feckless purist.
Yes, we’d be real happy with someone who votes with us 70% of the time, rather than zero percent of the time. Enjoy your time in the DemonRat gulags.
“””Yes, we’d be real happy with someone who votes with us 70% of the time,”””
Unfortunately, when it comes to critical votes, it is those 70%ers who vote with the Democrats.
LOL- and you’ll be the on FR to whine about the RINO’s every time he votes against Conservatives and President Trump or talks about “reaching across the aisle.”
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And if the dem gets elected, you’ll be on here whinging about the newly appointed and confirmed nutty liberal SC justice and the higher taxes. I could go on.
1. West Virginia
West Virginia is going to be a Republican pickup, period. Doddering moderate Governor Jim Justice will be the new senator from West Virginia in 2025. His voting record may not differ much from Joe Manchin's, and Justice will be a reliable tool for Mitch McConnell or whichever one of his sock puppets becomes the party leader in the Senate next year.
2. Montana
Moderate businessman Tim Sheehy was effectively unopposed for the Republican nomination to take on three-term liberal Democrat Jon Tester. Tester has never been truly popular with the Montana electorate -- he's cleared 50% just once in three tries, and even that one was by a mere 0.3% -- but he is adept at campaigning as something other than the ultra-liberal that he is, he has the state's major media outlets thoroughly on his side, and he has benefited in the past by the presence of Libertarian candidates who suck votes away from the Republican.
Montana is far from the monolithically-Republican state that some may think it is. It almost never votes Democrat for President (just once since 1968, and that was only because of the Perot Factor in 1992), but Democrats have won 9 of the last 12 elections for Senator or Governor. One of Montana's two House districts is somewhat marginal; the other is solid GOP.
At long last it appears that Tester's appeal has diminished to the point where he is in serious trouble. He may be in trouble in the polls, where surveys lately show Sheehy ahead by about 5 points, but if money alone determined the election outcome Tester would be winning in a landslide. As of the latest FEC filings, Tester has spent over $33 million as opposed to just over $10 million for Sheehy. As we have mentioned here on numerous occasions, there's not a House district or Senate seat in the U.S. where Democrats can't outspend Republicans by incredible margins if they want to. This will be proven to be true in almost every single hotly-contested Senate and House race in 2024. This race is not nearly over yet, and Sheehy's lead is hardly insurmountable. It looks good for now, though.
3. Ohio
The current Senate campaign in Ohio bears a strong resemblance to the one which took place in that state two years ago. The only substantial difference is that there was no incumbent seeking re-election in 2022 however there is one running in 2024. Incumbency is normally a distinct advantage, and this race is no exception even though the incumbent is a Democrat and Ohio (like Montana) is thought to be unfriendly territory for those on the far left of the political spectrum.
In 2022, Republican senatorial squish Rob Portman retired and there was a fractious 3-way primary to determine the GOP Senate nominee, while slimy Democrat challenger Tim Ryan faced no intra-party opposition and was able to keep his powder dry while watching three Republicans stab at each other.
In 2024 there was a fractious 3-way primary to determine the GOP Senate nominee, while slimy Democrat incumbent Sherrod Brown faced no intra-party opposition and was able to keep his powder dry while watching three Republicans stab at each other.
The 2022 Republican nominee, J.D. Vance, was (and still is) unacceptably conservative according to the wimpy wing of the Republican party, he had some trouble raising money and seemed to be off the air for long periods in the summer while Ryan was on the attack 24/7. Smelling blood in the water and sensing an unexpected pickup opportunity, Democrats flooded the state with oodles of cash and Ryan was able to outspend Vance by the margin of $57 million to $15 million. After trailing most of the time, finally in October Vance consistently pulled ahead in the polls and then won in November, but it was uncomfortably close in supposedly "dark red" Ohio.
The 2024 Republican nominee, Bernie Moreno, is unacceptably conservative according to the wimpy wing of the Republican party, he has had some trouble raising money and seemed to be off the air for long periods in the summer while Brown was on the attack 24/7. Democrats flooded the state with oodles of cash and Brown has so far been able to outspend Moreno by the margin of $43 million to $11 million. After trailing the entire time, finally in September Moreno appears to be closing the gap in the polls, but has yet to be shown in the lead in any poll. Will "dark red" Ohio come through for Moreno, with Trump dragging him across the finish line?
We'll see.
Trump may have difficulty attaining the 8-point margin he received in Ohio in 2020, which means his coattails aren't going to be as long as might be hoped.
4. Michigan
Retiring liberal Democrat incumbent Debbie Stabenow was first elected to Congress in 1996 when she unseated conservative freshman Republican Dick Chrysler in Michigan's 8th congressional district. Stabenow moved up to the Senate in 200 and her replacement in the 8th congressional district in 2000 was Republican Mike Rogers -- the same guy who is now trying to replace her in the Senate in 2024. Rogers campaigned as a moderate and was even able to obtain some endorsements from Democrat politicians back in his first election.
Rogers' voting record in the House was a shade to the right of "moderate" for most of his 14-year career, which ended when he chose not to run for re-election to an 8th term in 2014. The 8th district was moved to the right in the 2001 redistricting, perhaps emboldening Rogers to show a little more backbone in his congressional voting. Or maybe it forced him to move a little to the right, lest he be vulnerable to a conservative challenge in a primary election.
Also coming from the same district as Stabenow and Rogers is Elissa Slotkin -- the "former" Deep State operative who is now the Democrat nominee for the 2024 Senate race against Rogers.
Financially, it's the same story as in all other swing states this year: the Democrat has raised and spent far more money than the Republican. As of two months ago, which is the latest available data at this time, Slotkin has raised $24 million to $5 million for Rogers; she has spent $15 million while Rogers has forked out less than $3 million.
Rogers has done well to stay within the margin of error (but always on the losing side) in the polls. Can he break the 30-year iron grip which liberal Democrats have had on Michigan's pair of Senate seats? The probability of that happening is still less than 50%, but his chances seem to be improving at this time.
5. Pennsylvania
Current senator Bob Casey, Jr. is dumber than a chimp (or even Kamala Harris). But unfortunately so are a slim majority of PA voters, as has been consistently demonstrated in recent years with the exception of the 2016 presidential election, when Democrat overconfidence led to a (relative) lack of fraud on their part, and Trump was able to win the Keystone State by a fraction of a percent.
Casey's challenger this year is Dave McCormick. McCormick spent lavishly of his own money in the 2022 Republican primary vs. "Electable" Dr. Oz, but lost by less than 1,000 votes out of 1.34 million which were cast. McCormick graciously conceded and now has returned for another shot at the Senate -- this time with the GOP field cleared for him; no more dealing with pesky moderate dilettantes like Oz or staunch conservatives like Kathy Barnette. McCormick is again funding a large part ($4 million as of late June) of his own campaign and, aside from a recent left-biased outlier poll from CBS, appears to be inching closer to a possible -- but still unlikely -- upset.
Casey is now in his 18th Senate year, and has voted the liberal position 94% of the time during his tenure. He has been a reliable supporter of the Biden-Harris agenda and marches out of lockup on only the rarest and most unimportant of occasions. McCormick is a wealthy moderate businessman -- the kind of candidate the GOP establishment absolutely adores. Wealthy businessguys often lack icky conservatism and they have the ability to waste spend lots of money on their own behalf. It could be argued that a true conservative would have little chance of being elected statewide in Pennsylvania, and a nominal conservative like Pat Toomey or Rick Santorum is the best we can do.
Should McCormick somehow pull off the upset, his voting record in the Senate would likely be a little to the left of Toomey-Santorum though nowhere near (hopefully) as lunatic leftist as ex-Republican Senator Arlen "Judas" Specter, who went out in a blaze of bitterness back in 2010. Anything even close to Toomey-Santorum territory would be a tremendous improvement over the Casey pup in the empty suit.
Other states which could have close Senate elections:
Democrats are desperately wishing for major upsets of Republican Senate incumbents in Florida and Texas; there are no other GOP-held Senate seats which are even close to being in play. Republicans are desperately hoping for major upsets in Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin or Maryland. The probability is that none of the above will happen, although the loss of Florida or Texas for the GOP has a greater chance of occurring than pickups elsewhere.
GOP candidates are particularly floundering in the southwest (AZ, NV) and Ted Cruz is underperforming in Texas. We've already written in great detail about how Texas is absolutely not the solid "red" state that it might have been a few years ago, and people have quickly forgotten how marginal Florida is capable of being; 2018 wasn't all that long ago.
Even after Governor Ron DeSantis' successful election integrity measures which targeted shady Democrat election officials in places such as Broward County and Palm Beach County, Florida can still be finicky and Rick Scott may not be taking this Senate race as seriously as he should. Scott has raised a handsome sum of money, but he may have shot his wad too early -- the femiNazi running against Scott actually has more cash on hand as of the end of July. She is also a lot closer to Scott in the polls than she should be.
Debbie Mucarsel Hyphen Powell isn't right on Scott's tail because of anything desirable or positive on her end; she may as well be listed on the ballot simply as "Not Rick Scott". Scott is the "Jon Tester" of Florida -- he has won three elections and only once has he cleared 50% (he received 50.1% in 2018). He is not popular and never has been; he has been just barely popular enough in the past.
Only one outlier poll has showed the Republican within true striking distance in Wisconsin. In Maryland, although Larry Hogan is keeping it somewhat close against his affirmative-action opponent, Hogan seems less interested in winning a Senate seat than he does in using his campaign as a vehicle for virtue-signaling and Trump-hating.
Perhaps Maryland's version of Chris Christie is trying to position himself as a GOP presidential candidate for 2028? Or maybe he's looking to be the Democrat nominee? Either way, Hogan's not winning anything in 2024 absent divine intervention. He's going to get beat down hard in the Baltimore-D.C. corridor.
Conclusion:
The most likely scenario (sorry, hopium addicts) is that the Republicans will have a net gain of 1 or 2 seats in the Senate. If they win West Virginia and Montana but nothing more, and do not lose Florida or Texas, that will be a pretty good election night at the Senate level. But we'll still have people wailing and being bitterly disappointed in positive developments -- just like they were in 2022 -- because their greedy expectation of "muh red wayve" didn't come true and Santa didn't leave everything they wished for under the Christmas tree.
LOL- they don’t need fatso to control the Senate- but simple math can be hard for the mouth breathers unable to think for themselves.
LOL- Typical loser statement.
Johnson has been pathetic. Only feckless RINO’s justify his “leadership” by claiming “he’s not hakeem jefferies”.
I check that site everyday...lol
Also on youtube Rich Baris does a couple of podcasts a week on the polls. They are long broadcasts, but very informative. He’s pretty sure Trump wins and we take Senate. He’s a bit worried about the House. We need all three!
Unfortunately, when it comes to critical votes, it is those 70%ers who vote with the Democrats.
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Maybe. Maybe not. But at this point we’ll have to take the risk. There is no other option. We’re stuck with him. Tell us honestly. Me and most everyone else despise Mittens. If he was running against Harris or Biden, would you actually vote for H or B?
LOL- they don’t need fatso to control the Senate- but simple math can be hard for the mouth breathers unable to think for themselves.
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Your insults display a lack of critical thinking. And you’re calling me a mouth breather. SMH.
Oh tell us Nostradamus, how do you KNOW we won’t need him to control the Senate? I’ll await your Mensa type response. Simple math will suffice.
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