[nwrep]

What a joke. If Trump gets 268 electoral votes, he loses. How is that good?

[roving]

you have polls that says he is up, then there are polls that say he is down. I give up on the polls.

[Reno89519]

Well, as noted earlier today when Harris and Walz kicked off their Battleground State Tour, they next head to Eau Claire, Wisconsin; Detroit, Michigan; The Research Triangle in North Carolina; Savannah, Georgia; Phoenix, Arizona; and Las Vegas, Nevada; through August 10. That covers what is likely to be the deciding states this fall.

[Az Joe]

https://www.npr.org/2024/08/05/nx-s1-5061729/harris-trump-swing-states-electoral-map

[Political Junkie Too]

There hasn't been a dump of battleground state polls since July 31. I'm holding my breath waiting to see what happens.

I expect the bounce to continue and start being reflected in the state polls. I would expect the polls to stabilize after the DNC convention and then start to swing back if there are any debates.

-PJ

[nbenyo]

All the swing state polling is within the margin of error, neither side can be confident

[DoodleBob]

The polling isn’t important.

The proper discussion is around how to flip 38+ electoral votes, and retain the States won in 2020.

We NEED Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), Pennsylvania (20), Georgia (16), Arizona (10) aor some combo theirin.

Minnesota (10) is gone with Gov Riot now the Veep candidate.

And this is against the backdrop of mail-in voting, which isn't going away.

Stop with the pipe dreams in NJ, CT, and NY. Those gutters have a machine that’s not worth an ounce of energy.

Finally, to assess how close this can get, you have to scrutinize the winning vote margin in those close states that tip the balance to the winner, ie the Tipping Point states.

Since 2004 every election except for 2008 it came down to the handful of states that tip the Electoral College scale to the winner:

- In Trump’s win in 2016, his cumulative winning margin in the tipping point states of Wi, Mi, and PA was 77,444 votes.

-In Biden’s case, his tipping point margin was about 40k votes.

-Obama in 2012, it was about 500k votes.

-Bush in 2004, about 16k votes.

All this campaigning and rallies and debates blah blah blah…it all comes down in general to beating the other guy (or gal) by less than 100,000 votes.

….and it’s actually thinner than that, because all the losing candidate needed was to flip at least half of those votes.

[cowboyusa]

Don’t sleep on NJ. Left Wing does not play well in the NJ Philly Suburbs either.

[FreedBird]

Harris may have the sheep following her, but not enough to win the Electoral College. The Dems. will be working overtime to rig the election again this time.

[Georgia Girl 2]

The polls are designed to make the race seem close so the steal doesn’t look so bad. That’s where we are headed.

[cowboyusa]

Think about the situation back in 2026. PaT Trump was trailing at this time in OH, FL and NC. Those States are out of play now.

[cowboyusa]

2016. Typing on the Train.