Harris takes 4-point lead in Pennsylvania; Casey up 5 on McCormick: poll (Seriously)?

The hill ^ | 7/31/2024 | Hill

[Williams]

Sadly I can tell you this country has never voted on the issues.
Of course I mean the average person.

Why did Trunan defeat Dewey, who was far superior?
Because Dewey had a mustache and people wouldn’t vote for a man with a mustache after Hitler.

[Organic Panic]

I have been flamed aplenty here for this.

Prepare for President Kamala. She will be installed no matter what. The demons will NOT allow a Trump presidency. We have already seen what they will do to eliminate him. Prepare accordingly.

[mass55th]

"Harris takes 4-point lead in Pennsylvania..."

In the Whores for Hire category.

[Owen]

I did find a previous measure for this company’s turnout model.

It was Biden +5 in April. Slight closure.

Most other polls show a Trump +3ish in PA.

The way that should be written is most other turnout models show that.

[cgbg]

I always prepare for the worst—but work and hope for the best.

We already had the miracle of President Trump surviving an assassination attempt.

We can do another miracle or two....

[Lisbon1940]

Not believing some indigenous polling outfit.

[Political Junkie Too]

The other unusual thing is that today's release of polls is showing that RFK, Jr. is taking more votes away from President Trump than Harris (except in Nevada and Wisconsin).

• New Hampshire
  • Harris: 50 - Trump: 46
  • Harris: 48 (-2) - Trump: 41 (-5) - Kennedy: 6 - Stein: 1 - West: 0

• Arizona
  • Harris: 49 - Trump: 47
  • Harris: 48 (-1) - Trump: 44 (-3) - Kennedy: 5 - Stein: 1 - West: N/A

• Georgia
  • Harris: 47 - Trump: 47
  • Harris: 45 (-2) - Trump: 45 (-2) - Kennedy: 4 - Stein: 0 - West: N/A

• Michigan
  • Harris: 53 - Trump: 42
  • Harris: 51 (-2) - Trump: 39 (-3) - Kennedy: 5 - Stein: 1 - West: N/A

• Nevada
  • Harris: 47 - Trump: 45
  • Harris: 43 (-4) - Trump: 43 (-2) - Kennedy: 7 - Stein: 1 - West: N/A

• North Carolina
  • Harris: 46 - Trump: 48
  • Harris: 44 (-2) - Trump: 45 (-3) - Kennedy: 5 - Stein: 0 - West: N/A

• Pennsylvania
  • Harris: 46 - Trump: 50
  • Harris: 44 (-2) - Trump: 46 (-4) - Kennedy: 3 - Stein: 1 - West: N/A

• Wisconsin
  • Harris: 49 - Trump: 47
  • Harris: 44 (-5) - Trump: 45 (-2) - Kennedy: 6 - Stein: 0 - West: N/A

-PJ

[lightman]

Pennsylvania Ping!

Please ping me with articles of interest.

FReepmail me to be added to the list.

[fatima]

lies.

[Erik Latranyi]

The media is 1000% on board with Harris

They will skew everything until after the convention.

Keep your powder dry, folks, and destroy her once she is the official nominee.

That is Trump’s tactic right now.

[Jim Noble]

“ Just have the feeling there’s certain Dem factions in conflict”

It’s not Dems. The regime is cracking, the parties are just tools in their toolkits. The last time the President was also head of the regime was April 1945.

That’s a LONG time.

[panzerkamphwageneinz]

this is so the 250,000 fake ballots can push her over the top and anyone that complains will be a white nationalist recist terrorist.

[HamiltonJay]

anyone who believes Harris swung PA by 8-10 points is just a special kind of stupid.... period.

[Owen]

As already noted, this is a Trump improvement vs that Turnout Model by 1% in a week.

Other Turnout Models (from other pollsters) has him in the lead.

We cannot know whose model is accurate, but we can tell if the needle moves by watching measurements using the same model. In this case, a good week for Trump.