Harsh Reality for Record Number of Computer Science Grads: Software Employment Has Peaked

The Average Joe ^ | 06/27/2024 | Noah Weidner

[SeekAndFind]

Tech companies and startups overhired, overspent, and overpromised — so what they’re doing now that the money isn’t coming as easily should be no surprise. Since 2022, the industry has laid off over 528K workers, echoing the downturns of the Dotcom Bubble and the Great Recession. Even with an improving economy and record stock valuations, jobs aren’t returning. This time, things might really be different.

Peak software: ADP reports that the US employs fewer software developers than pre-pandemic — with a 17% drop since 2018. Job opportunities in traditionally stable tech fields are also drying up as software companies’ growth slows (and companies rethink the economics of their businesses)

• In the last 18 months, job growth for software publishers, including software developers, has stalled — with a 30% year-over-year decline in full-time job postings by tech firms, according to student job site Handshake.
• California, the hub of America’s tech scene, now hosts fewer tech jobs than before the pandemic, says data journalist Joey Politano — erasing a surge that added hundreds of thousands of roles.

End of Days?

Computer and tech-oriented programs are one of the only degrees that have seen an increase in enrollment in recent years — no surprise, considering STEM degrees rank among the highest-paid college majors. However, the sluggish job market for tech employees raises concerns about graduates finding quality positions.

• From 2011-2021, computer science graduates from top research universities increased 12x, with a 40% rise in computer and information science majors over the past five years (WSJ).
• CompTIA’s Tim Herbert says that “job seekers need to reset their expectations,” including compensation and employer preferences, to find jobs in the industry.

Forward-looking: While the BLS predicts double-digit growth in computer and IT jobs over the next few years, billionaire Mark Cuban warned long ago that AI could reduce demand for tech professionals over the long run. Pace Capital’s Chris Paik took it a step further in his new essay “The End of Software” — saying that “majoring in computer science today will be like majoring in journalism in the late 90’s.” These warnings might make students rethink their degree — or reconsider college entirely.

[sten]

Since we have 500,000+ IT workers in the US looking for work...

when will the H-1bs be going home?

[dadfly]

bookmark.

[TheDon]

Going home? We will import more than ever!

[Scrambler Bob]

Software is binary (sorry, not non-binary) and either 0 or 1.

So you need two employees, one “0” and one “1”.

And on a tangent, AI in Morse code is ._ and ..

Not much ‘diversity’, lots of dots and lots of short (two pulses) letters.

[KC_Conspirator]

Correct, the H1bs need to go.

Now, the details are that there are some people in tech that have no tech skills, they are product managers and content managers, etc. Like those spoiled silicon valley women with their tik toks, showing off their free mocha lattes and free wine bar after work while having no skills other than to boss others around. Their jobs are going. The devs and engineers are going

[politicket]

when will the H-1bs be going home?

Very true. The law states that those jobs must go to qualified citizens before being given to foreigners.

[The Duke]

There’s still plenty of opportunity in tech. IT security still has more holes that Swiss cheese. There’s going to be another space race and Cold War coming up too, with plenty of interesting problems that will need solving.

[NetAddicted]

AI can write programs, ergo bye-bye coding jobs.

[OakOak]

Joe has plenty of minimum wage jobs.

People quit them often and they’re counted as 5 or 6 new jobs.

[T.B. Yoits]

I witness regression in the output from programmers and developers. It's like they never learned from the past. They're learning as they go and it shows. They violate established standards without even being aware of it. The newbies working for the developer don't know anything about any industry and have never developed a similar product. (This is akin to contractors hiring unskilled illegal aliens that's become so rampant). For IT, it's the inevitable outcome of the program the U.S. government implemented starting 25 years ago to suppress wages within the IT industry.

I deal with companies putting a hold on rollouts and developments. It's not because of the costs but because so many key people have retired since the Scamdemic began and their replacements are missing or are significantly less capable. The replacements are unable to make decisions because they're in so far over their head. First decision - let's hold off on upgrading or replacing these systems "until we get our arms around what we're dealing with".

I see companies holding onto relics of in-house programs because they can't get viable bids for replacing it. I especially see it in small companies where the owners are planning on closing shop if the economy takes a further dip. Why fix up the car if you're running it until it fails completely?

One disturbing trend I've seen is the increase in the number of complete snake oil salesmen (and saleswomen) among small software firms, where after several years of development, the programs completely miss the mark. The client doesn't have any employees who know enough about software and programming so the company is completely dependent on outsourced developers. The employees at the company don't know what they need, are data illiterate, and more and more don't even know anything about computers.

[AnotherUnixGeek]

Harsh Reality for Record Number of Computer Science Grads: Software Employment Has Peaked

Yup, I believe this - within 20 years most software development will consist of product managers composing user stories and feeding them to AI software which will churn out decently coded solutions. Refinement iterations will occur, and maybe some manual fine tuning, but that's it. The era of human software development is coming to an end.

[VTenigma]

I thought that happened 15 years ago when they started importing H1Bs to replace Americans.

[Chode]

and when AI writes better code faster than the churn coming out of coding the mills today???

[dfwgator]

Software development is part of a bigger job. Now basically you’d better be a Subject Matter Expert who codes.

[dfwgator]

They can write programs, but who will make sure the programs will work and be secure?

[cherry]

my son lost his internet support job just before Christmas...his whole department....nothing as of yet..

[Harpotoo]

I started out on IBM 360/30 in the basement of the Empire State building and it was good while it lasted kids. Now AI can build the code on it’s own.

[blueunicorn6]

AI is just stupidity at the speed of light.

[FrankRizzo890]

Someone has forgotten to tell the 10 recruiters that contact me every weekday with offers of software development jobs.