Posted on 02/27/2024 2:55:45 PM PST by marcusmaximus
The Ukrainian air force claimed it has shot down 10 Russian warplanes in 10 days: nine of the Russian air force’s best Sukhoi Su-34 and Sukhoi Su-35 fighter-bombers and also a rare Beriev A-50 radar plane.
-snip-
The Ukrainian defense ministry announced this month’s ninth and tenth shoot-downs—both involving Su-34s—on Tuesday. “Oops, we did it again!” the ministry quipped. “And now it's 10 destroyed Russian planes in 10 days!”
How the Ukrainians are shooting down so many jets is unclear. It’s possible the Ukrainian air force has assigned some of its American-made Patriot missile launchers to mobile air-defense groups that move quickly in close proximity to the 600-mile front line of Russia’s two-year wider war on Ukraine, ambushing Russian jets with 90-mile-range PAC-2 missiles then swiftly relocating to avoid counterattack.
But the distance at which the Ukrainians shot down that A-50 on Friday—120 miles or so—hints that a longer-range missile system was involved. Perhaps a Cold War-vintage S-200 that the Ukrainian air force pulled out of long-term storage.
It also is apparent the Ukrainians have moved some of their two-dozen or so 25-mile-range NASAMS surface-to-air missile batteries closer to the front line.
(Excerpt) Read more at forbes.com ...
Thank you for your service!
That is a big if, and yes our tactics depend on air superiority and I think as the war has progressed I don’t see that as a problem
Ukraine has caused the Russian Air Force to fight way behind their lines, the Ukrainian attacks on strategic, operational and tactical targets have been effective but not overwhelming, that will not be the case with NATO forces.
Ukranians don’t have B-1s, B-2s, and B-52s that can not only launch devastating long range attacks, but the ability to penetrate and hit targets.
Ukraine does not have F-22s and 35s and their capabilities.
All of these plus other NATO Air Force assets would eliminate Russian air defenses and Air Force capabilities pretty quickly. I am sure there would be loses, remember from gulf 1 that we were told to expect 50% loses of tankers. That never happened because we removed the threat quickly
The elephant in the room is nuclear, then everything goes out the window.
If putin goes nuclear then his dreams of an empire will disappear as well, ain’t people grand
The question is do you let the bully get his way and hope he will play nice later.
Point is if putin is allowed to get his way, we will be in this same situation again. Additionally xi is watching, and though Chinese military has not been tested, on paper they are a formidable force
Deal with it now or deal with it later and later will involve US troops
There is the small matter that Germany was fighting a two front war, that Soviets were sustained by western aid, and west was attacking German infrastructure degrading their abilities.
Additionally if the war had continued at the same pace for much longer even the Soviet Union would have run short of troops.
Todays muskova is not their fathers Soviet Union.
Don’t recall people from Napal, Cuba, China, Syria…. Fighting for Soviet Union
“ The Russians want a victory without bringing war to much of Ukraine, which would stir up far deeper and broader Ukrainian hatred of Russia”
Would say they have failed at that already
1000 a day?
Okay/s
Does seem to be the case, can’t see their Air Force or air defenses being up to tha task of a full on NATO assault
When they do perform "CAS" (except for their Warthogs) it's from 8,000 ft AGL and God help you if it's Danger Close.
We were bombed by an F-100 in August 1966 who ignored our air panels, colored smoke, and frantic radio calls and bombed the company ahead of us. 22 dead.
It took place in late 1970s. The article is still garbage.
LOL. This take is unscientific. You should start with asking how a Texas Guard is going to fare against Ukraine.
By the way, the “free World’s” Navies are getting spitroasted by Houthi tribesmen in the Red Sea as we speak. That is how the real weakness looks like.
It is a rolling average. They lost over 900 KIA in a two town sector and over 30 vehicles yesterday. The war is hot all along the 600+ mile frontlines.
“Ukranians don’t have B-1s, B-2s, and B-52s that can not only launch devastating long range attacks, but the ability to penetrate and hit targets.
Ukraine does not have F-22s and 35s and their capabilities.
All of these plus other NATO Air Force assets would eliminate Russian air defenses and Air Force capabilities pretty quickly. “
This is the BoomerCon Bravado. The world has changed but they are stuck in the myth of US dominance from the early 1990’s.
The US military can’t deal with the Houthis and stop them sending drones but the Russians have no hope.
The Red Sea operations shows the true state of the US military.
Shortages of missiles.
Insufficient production capacity of munitions.
Inability ro re-arm at sea.
Unsustainable economic exchange where multi-million dollar missiles shoot down multi thousand dollar drones.
Exactly the same patterns are going to prevail in an all out war with Russia.
Tell yourself that if you want
But the Russians don’t dare fly over Ukraine, and if they get even close they get shot down, and that is with a cobbled together ground air defense and decades old aircraft
Next you will tell me the Russian navy would prevail as well
As to the Houthis, same issue with aid to Ukraine is with Red Sea response, dictated by politicians
But if Putin wants to come out and play we will find out
And you are getting your figures from where?
Yes we will see.
NATO/USA has been running on hype and past reputation for a long time.
Every wonder weapon in Ukraine has failed - most obviously the tanks.
And they can’t produced them in large volumes. For example:
“Furthermore, Lockheed aims for a 40 percent annual production increase of HIMARS Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System ammunition in 2025, from 1,000 to 1,400.
Additionally, the defense giant plans to produce 3,960 Javelin anti-tank missile systems by late 2026 from the current 2,400.
Meanwhile, Lockheed said it has secured advanced funds to raise the annual production of PAC-3 MSE air defense missiles to 650 by 2027.”
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2024/02/19/lockheed-himars-production-60/#google_vignette
Excalibur 155mm production is 1000 PER YEAR.
That’s almost three a day !
Western militaries are like a fake muscleman. Not even steroids, but liposuction and surgical implants.
US Army awards $1.5B to boost global production of artillery rounds - October 26, 2023
EXCERPT:
U.S. Army said it awarded contracts to nine companies in the U.S., Canada, India, and Poland to boost global production of 155mm artillery rounds . . . the service finalized a flurry of contracts that “resourced each major component, material or required production process to maintain momentum for the goal of 80,000 projectiles per month by the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025.”
Ukraine to make shells with US firms as it seeks to develop defence sector - December 7, 2023
EXCERPT:
Dec 7 (Reuters) - Kyiv has agreed with two American firms to jointly manufacture vital 155mm artillery shells in Ukraine . . .
"We have agreements with two leading American companies to jointly produce, in Ukraine, 155-calibre ammunition," Oleksandr Kamyshin, minister for strategic industries, said in televised comments.
But he noted that Ukraine had never produced such shells and it would be "a minimum of two years, a maximum of three" before production could begin.
Mesquite 635 Industrial Park [just 12 minutes from downtown Dallas at the crossroads of Interstate 635 and U.S. 80]:
DMN: General Dynamics Selects Mesquite Industrial Park for New Artillery Casings Plant - April 25, 2023
EXCERPT:
“The manufacturing facility will effectively produce 20,000 units per month” of artillery casings only.
Mesquite [City Council] approves new General Dynamics plant to make artillery casings - May 10, 2023
Note: The Mesquite artillery shell casing manufacturing plant is expected to open in June, 2024; but some of the funding might be hung up in the Congress. And another maybe: that same funding pool includes funds for the Lima, Ohio heavy armor tank plant.
YouTube - 2 videos re 155mm status
Inside the US Factory Making Ukraine’s Most Important Ammo - August 6, 2023
Why the 155mm Shell Is One of the World’s Most Wanted Objects Now - January 24, 2024
Rheinmetal wins major artillery ammunition order for Ukraine worth over €140 milion
EXCERPTS:
Rheinmetall . . . order encompasses tens of thousands of complete 155mm artillery shells.
The customer is a NATO partner nation whose declared intention is to support Ukraine in its defensive struggle with effective long-term military aid.
The shells will be produced by Rheinmetall Expal Munitions, the Group’s newly acquired Spanish subsidiary . . . The ammunition [for the new order] will be delivered in 2025.
Production and delivery of around 40,000 rounds for Ukraine from an earlier order is already due to take place in 2024.
Demand for artillery ammunition is currently very high, due not just to Ukraine’s requirements but also the need to replenish the largely empty ammunition depots of Germany and other NATO and EU countries.
Rheinmetall plans a massive increase in ammunition production capacity in 2024 at its plants in Germany, Spain, South Africa and Australia, bringing annual output capacity to around 700,000 artillery rounds.
France ramps up weapons production for Ukraine and says Russia is scrutinizing the West’s mettle [January 18, 2024]
EXCERPT:
[French defense minister, Sébastien Lecornu] said increased supplies of shells for Ukraine are on their way. From this month, France will supply 3,000 shells for 155 mm guns per month, up from 1,000 shells per month at the start of the war and 2,000 per month since last April.
Russian jets are flying over, and further into, Ukraine, attempting to attack ground-based anti-air missile sights and their controling RADAR systems.
“sights” - > sites
(sigh)
“... long list of press releases about future 155mm shell production... blah.. blah, blah... “
None of what is promised in these press releases ever happens.
Production status of 155mm artillery shells, was what I provided.
Your 2 links are important, given that 155mm artillery shell production status:
https://www.euractiv.com/section/europe-s-east/news/ukraine-says-only-30-of-promised-eu-artillery-shells-received/
https://www.wsj.com/world/as-ukraine-plows-through-artillery-shells-one-plan-to-send-more-fizzles-f78c02ab
The information, combined, does not lend to Ukraine having the ability to recover lost territory.
Ukraine considers its current status, a loss. I consider Ukraine will be fortunate, just to secure what territory it is able to hold. And, that was my original assessment, that has not changed.
IMHO, Putin has already won, he has:
- Crimea
- the land bridge to Crimea
- the land bridge flanks
- control of the Sea of Azov
Ukraine - winning - is the ability to manage to hang on to what it has, now.
Ukraine’s notion that a loss of the country is worth throwing everything into “winning over Russia,” is not a worthwhile path.
Russia and Ukraine are going to have to learn to get along - probably a thing for a future generation.
Russia remains a state sponsor of communism, fascism, socialism, terrorism around the world. Because, supporting divisions among:
- other countries
- other cultures, and
- other peoples
. . . is a Russian thing, part of its coercive defense nature - kind of like an unhappy customer of McDonald’s, throwing cups and spoons and napkins all around, thrashing about, raising a ruckus in places, NOT Russia[n].
Russia *is* a bear.
Russia does not want NATO near Russia, but Russia must itself, stay away from NATO . . . yet marching toward NATO (Poland, etc.) is not going to be good for Russia.
Not helping - hot heads:
- Moscow
- Kiyv
- Victoria Nuland (plus Obama, H. Clinton . . .)
- muslim bro (speaking of proxy’s)
- Venezuela, Cuba (puppet states)
- drug cartels (speaking of proxy’s)
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