[desertsolitaire]

Is there anything positive about the current Ujraine invasion that suggests anything but eventual defeat for the Ukes by mismatch of demographics, a determined Russua and anemic Western aid effort (anemic in effectiveness, not cost)?

[BroJoeK]

desertsolitaire: "Is there anything positive about the current Ujraine invasion that suggests anything but eventual defeat for the Ukes by mismatch of demographics, a determined Russua and anemic Western aid effort (anemic in effectiveness, not cost)?"

I agree 100% that you are right to be pessimistic in listing factors favoring Russia against Ukraine.
As you might agree, these include:

Russia's fleet of A-50 AWACs type command planes
Pictured are boneyard planes used for parts only:

1. Russia's population outnumbering Ukraine's round 4 to 1.

2. Russia's over-all economy outsizing Ukraine's around 10 to 1.

3. Russia's dictator overmatching in brutality Ukraine's fledgling democracy maybe 100 to 1.

4. Russia's Axis of Evil dictator-allies out-supplying critical materials -- like artillery shells, drones and missiles -- those from the West for Ukraine by at least two or three to one.

5. Russia's own military production now ramping up to outsize Ukraine's very limited production by untold many to one.

6. Russia's political & propaganda operation in Western countries overmatching Ukraine's at critical points (i.e. Free Republic) by two or three to one.

Based on these odds, there's no reason to think Ukrainians have even a fighting chance to defeat "mother Russia".
Of course, all of this was also true on February 24, 2022, when Vlad the Invader first launched his "special military operations", and yet, somehow, Ukrainians didn't collapse in the face of overwhelming Russian military power.

Some of Ukraine's advantages include:

Russian cruiser Moskva, sank by Ukrainian drones in 2022:

1. High motivation and leadership resulting from the certain knowledge that they must do or die, both individually and as an independent nation.

2. Enough of the independent Western spirit to let Ukrainians think and adapt creatively to unexpected challenges.
   We see examples in Ukraine's destruction of Russia's Black Sea Fleet while lacking any navy of their own.

3. A legitimately elected democratic government which seems genuinely interested in the wellbeing of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians and is publicly fighting against traditional patterns of corruption.

4. A Western Alliance of about 50 countries which, at least in theory, could vastly overmatch Russia's war production, even given support to Russia from North Korea, Iran or potentially China.

5. Technological advantages from Western equipment and intelligence services.
   We see examples in Ukraine's shooting down of expensive Russian military jets.

6. Western sanctions against Russia seem largely ineffective today, however, when combined with other stresses on Russia's war-economy, could eventually prove the difference between victory and defeat.

7. Vlad the Invader's personal wealth, now said to be circa $300 billion frozen in western banks, could serve as a good start on rebuilding the ~$1 trillion in destruction to Ukraine cause by Vlad's invasions, especially after Vlad is legally convicted of his many war-crimes.

Which of those factors could prove decisive is hard to say, as is how much of deal a potential Pres. Trump might work out.
I personally don't think world-reality is the same as it was in, say, 2020, and so Pres. Trump may have to rethink what is or is not achievable with negotiations.

Even if Pres. Trump withdraws all US aid to Ukraine, I would not expect Ukrainians to ever give up the fight.
Their time for victory will come, someday.