To: desertsolitaire; delta7; marcusmaximus; gleeaikin; USA-FRANCE
desertsolitaire:
"Is there anything positive about the current Ujraine invasion that suggests anything but eventual defeat for the Ukes by mismatch of demographics, a determined Russua and anemic Western aid effort (anemic in effectiveness, not cost)?" I agree 100% that you are right to be pessimistic in listing factors favoring Russia against Ukraine.
As you might agree, these include:
Russia's fleet of A-50 AWACs type command planes
Pictured are boneyard planes used for parts only:

- Russia's population outnumbering Ukraine's round 4 to 1.
- Russia's over-all economy outsizing Ukraine's around 10 to 1.
- Russia's dictator overmatching in brutality Ukraine's fledgling democracy maybe 100 to 1.
- Russia's Axis of Evil dictator-allies out-supplying critical materials -- like artillery shells, drones and missiles -- those from the West for Ukraine by at least two or three to one.
- Russia's own military production now ramping up to outsize Ukraine's very limited production by untold many to one.
- Russia's political & propaganda operation in Western countries overmatching Ukraine's at critical points (i.e. Free Republic) by two or three to one.
Based on these odds, there's no reason to think Ukrainians have even a fighting chance to defeat "mother Russia".
Of course, all of this was also true on February 24, 2022, when Vlad the Invader first launched his "special military operations", and yet, somehow, Ukrainians didn't collapse in the face of overwhelming Russian military power.
Some of Ukraine's advantages include:
Russian cruiser Moskva, sank by Ukrainian drones in 2022:

- High motivation and leadership resulting from the certain knowledge that they must do or die, both individually and as an independent nation.
- Enough of the independent Western spirit to let Ukrainians think and adapt creatively to unexpected challenges.
We see examples in Ukraine's destruction of Russia's Black Sea Fleet while lacking any navy of their own. - A legitimately elected democratic government which seems genuinely interested in the wellbeing of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians and is publicly fighting against traditional patterns of corruption.
- A Western Alliance of about 50 countries which, at least in theory, could vastly overmatch Russia's war production, even given support to Russia from North Korea, Iran or potentially China.
- Technological advantages from Western equipment and intelligence services.
We see examples in Ukraine's shooting down of expensive Russian military jets. - Western sanctions against Russia seem largely ineffective today, however, when combined with other stresses on Russia's war-economy, could eventually prove the difference between victory and defeat.
- Vlad the Invader's personal wealth, now said to be circa $300 billion frozen in western banks, could serve as a good start on rebuilding the ~$1 trillion in destruction to Ukraine cause by Vlad's invasions, especially after Vlad is legally convicted of his many war-crimes.
Which of those factors could prove decisive is hard to say, as is how much of deal a potential Pres. Trump might work out.
I personally don't think world-reality is the same as it was in, say, 2020, and so Pres. Trump may have to rethink what is or is not achievable with negotiations.
Even if Pres. Trump withdraws all US aid to Ukraine, I would not expect Ukrainians to ever give up the fight.
Their time for victory will come, someday.
![]()
96 posted on
02/26/2024 10:32:09 AM PST by
BroJoeK
(future DDG 134 -- we remember)
To: BroJoeK; marcusmaximus; bert; MeganC; USA-FRANCE; buwaya; Berlin_Freeper
In the past week the public media have been providing a lot more Ukraine info once again as opposed to the Israel/Gaza activity. A lot relates to your list of: “Some of Ukraine’s advantages.”
1) Regarding motivation. One program focused on a triple amputee Ukraine soldier interviewed in the hospital. He said he was eager to return to his military duties, where despite his injuries he could “be a good instructor.” With his one arm he can certainly teach, even from a wheelchair.
2) Creative thinking and adaptation. Ukraine has certainly done wonders with development of drone warfare, including the Ukraine Drone Navy, the “strongest Navy in the Black Sea.” Ukraine is developing its own drone industry and will be a supplier to other European countries.
3) Care for Ukrainians and fighting corruption. Interesting long term following of a dedicated Ukraine doctor serving the military front lines. Various reports on fight against corruption. Explanation on delay of elections given how many millions are no longer living in their voting address, how Russians would target polling places, many losses of passports and other critical documents.
4) 50 nation Western Alliance. Currently EU and other European countries lack adequate military production capability, for the short term dependent on US provision of weapons, especially artillery. Ukraine after winning has capability to be a major producer as they were when part of Russia.
Interesting report that Ukraine has the largest supply of military grade scrap mental for production purposes. It is interesting to remember that Russia was trying very hard to capture the major Steel Plant where the Azov troops were holding out for months. This plant was one of the few buildings Russia was trying to NOT destroy. Also east Ukraine has both coal and iron underground resources, so the heck with the buildings on top.
5) Technological advantages. Reports on Ukraine’s superior production and creativity advantage in using available resources, including old weapons, and providing greater accuracy of given weapon resources.
7) $300 billion frozen in Western banks. Plans are already being made and business alliances being formed to speed the reconstruction and development of a modern European based economy and provision of military, consumer, and energy supplies to allies.
107 posted on
02/26/2024 6:47:14 PM PST by
gleeaikin
( Question authority.)
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson