Posted on 02/11/2024 10:33:32 AM PST by Widget Jr
The first part was to give some background in the realities of the industry, to help dispel what get rich forecasters say. The deeper I went... well... rabbit holes go deep. Armstrong, like many frauds of economics loves talking about gold. How to invest and make money in it. From the first post, there is no way a outsider investing in the stock market, will make more than those working in the industry. This part is to address specific gold predictions by Martin Armstrong... and how disconnected from reality they are.
I. The Price of Gold in Reality.
First, some background, the history of the price of gold for the 20 to 30 year. What the price of gold actually did, and what it meant for the predictions Armstrong, and his shills made. Gold prices over the years, in USD per ounce:
https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-price-chart.do
https://goldprice.org/
https://www.apmex.com/gold-price.
From 2004 to June 2011: gold rose from $400 to $1,840 USD.
From June 2011 to August 2012, gold dropped then rose back to $ 1,800 USD.
From August 2012 to November 2015: gold dropped to $1,060 USD.
From November 2015 July 2020: gold rose to $2,020 USD.
Since then the price of gold dropped in August 2020 to 1,600, then climbed back up to its current value of $2,020 to $2,040 USD.
The too long, didn’t read version: From 2004, the price of gold has been on a upward trend from $400 USD/ounce to over $2,000 USD/ounce, with a dip in price from 2012 to 2015 from which the price has recovered.
II. Armstrong’s $5,000 Gold Fantasy.
Now let’s look at Armstrong’s predictions (Are spoilers necessary? Probably not.)
November 7, 2009, Martin Armstrong’s Newsletter predicting $5,000 per ounce gold.
Eighteen pages explaining what absolutely must happen, that never happened.
August 24, 2013, Gold $5,000+ – Why
"We have only two possibilities. (1) We get the phase transition in the Dow now going into 2015.75 whereby the Dow nearly doubles in value creating the bubble top, or (2) the Phase Transition is postponed into 2025 for the next 8.6 year wave. This depends upon the debt crisis. If we see the sovereign debt unravel now, then capital will flee into tangibles. There will not be the flight to quality so sovereign debt will not be the alternative but tangible assets. Thus, gold will rally at that time in place of government bonds. Because there is little gold at the current price relative to the cash, its price must rise to the price level in the $5,000 area."
I am not going to unpack all the economic falsehoods. Further down, I will explain how Armstrong deceives people, not the specific deceptions. Although I think I am qualified to say none of these financial crises or their responses happened in the third or fourth quarter of 2015 anywhere close to what Martin claimed.
September 2, 2014, Will Gold Still Go to $5000?
“Yes – to answer a lot of questions. We still see the future rally in gold reaching the $5,000 level.”
Nope. Not even close.
April 15, 2015, Martin Armstrong – Gold Bullion To “Max Out At $5,000 Per Ounce”
"– Fall 2015 turning point – civil unrest and riots globally says forecaster Armstrong
– Fed have to raise rates – due to pressure from congress and media
– By 2020 the cost of servicing U.S. debt will outpace defence spending
– European banks will collapse and “blood in the streets”
– Higher rates will also devastate emerging markets who have issued dollar-based debt
– Gold to “max out at $5000 per ounce”
– Advocates diversification and holding bullion coins familiar to public such as $20 gold coins"
I will unpack this.
There is always civil unrest somewhere, and the catastrophic global unrest and riots Armstrong was predicting for 2015 did not happen. The increasing cost of servicing the debt to defense or any US Federal spending was already known, and had nothing to do with gold prices. The European Debt Crisis started in 2009 to the mid 2010s, was a ongoing problem. European banking did not collapse.
This was not a open ended forecast. If it was, it would be worthless to anyone's claims as a super forecaster. Armstrong's gold forecasts had definite timelines. From the Martin Armstrong Socrates Scam blog, Gold USD 5,000+ into 2016 we have Martin’s own words:
“THE SPIKE HIGH: ... This would signal an amazing rally may then develop with a high at least at the 5,000 level and perhaps even 12,000 by 1215.75 if we held the 1,500 level in June..”
“13: A 21 year bull market in stocks points to 2015 and a 17.2 year high in gold points to 2016. P14: However, if gold exceeds this level and it too forms the subsequent support, now we are looking at the $3,500 to $5,000 target zone. This is where we see the potential for Gold is a true economic meltdown of Confidence.”
Just to remind where we are, gold never reached $2,500 all the time Martin was saying $5,000 gold was inevitable, and would happen before 2016. That same page on the Socrates Scam blog shows lots of other failed predictions that were sure to happen.
Armstrong was busy predicting catastrophic global economic and political collapse, failure, turmoil (pick one or all) by the end of 2015 and in 2016. Events which did not happen.
Armstrong is using two tricks in these Gold forecasts. First, he keeps repeating the same lie, from 2009 to 2015, until it is worn out. The second is, he wraps what he says in all the biases and prejudices his target audience wants to hear. Armstrong panders to the libertarian, anti-EU, anti-Western dominance of everything conservative groups.
This is in no way a defense of the United States and European systems of power and control. What Armstrong is doing is taking advantage of people’s fears and prejudices to get them to buy his products, buy into his get rich schemes, while taking no responsibility when people lose money following his advice.
III. How Armstrong Deceives and Misleads for Fun and Profit.
His fun, his profit, and this is not a comprehensive list. Armstrong and his kind have a limited number of related tricks.
· Make wild predictions about current events that are already happening.
· Claim they predicted the exact events that are happening when they didn’t.
· Take credit for events they had not involvement.
· Make word salad claims that sound impressive to those who don’t know any better.
The trick that makes this a full time effort is to never shut up. It make it easier to:
· Ignore any previous predictions and claims that contradict the current narrative.
· Take advantage of search engines that are biased to what is trending, versus what is more reliably accurate information.
· Confuse anyone who wants to challenge all the nonsense because there is so much of it for the conmen to fall back on.
IV. Nick Nicolaas.
Now onto one of his promoters, Nick Nicolaas. He is the owner of Montan Mining, now Fidelity Minerals. He used to promote Armstrong. What he is really doing is promoting himself to those who don’t know better.
He went to Armstrong 2016 World Economic Conference, and used a old trick with a new twist. Selling the get rich scheme to get rich, by selling his notes for $1,000 to “cover the cost” of going to one of Armstrong’s conferences. Armstrong already sells his conference material. Why by the notes, when you can buy the real thing?
Then in January 18, 2021 on Facebook, he posted, Klondike Silver Update - Gold, the Dow, S&P 500 & the Nasdaq - Points to Ponder, he actually out did Armstrong:
"NY Gold Nearest Futures...
The Silver Price will eventually become explosive. It will go back in the area of its historical Silver/Gold Ratio of Seventeen (17) Ounces of Silver to One (1) Ounce of Gold.
We still believe that there will be a Turning-point and Directional-Change in Gold. Gold will go below $981.50 after which will go above $981.50.
When that occurs, we will see Gold move to at least $2,500 and perhaps $5,000 per ounce. Eventually Gold will go as high as $20.000 per ounce."
He ends with this gem:
"At Mining Interactive resolved to move you the Investor into Super-fortune and Ultra-wealth status.
In the near future, of the first quarter 2021, the price of Gold was actually dropping. It took to the end of March, 2022 for gold to hit $2,000. At that time, the price of Silver would have to quadruple to meet a 17:1 ratio to gold. There was nothing except wild speculation to think the price would quadruple for some arcane reason.
The funny part is this, the difference in stock price between Nicolass’s company and Sibuyan Stillwater from Part One of How NOT to be a victim of gold scams. Nicolass owned Montan Mining, which in 2019 rebranded into Fidelity Minerals, FMN on the Toronto Venture exchange. At the time of this writing, FMN is trading at $0.05 USD / Share. Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBSW), on the NYSE, is trading at $4.28 USD/ Share, 85.6 times higher. Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW:SJ) stock price on the South African Johannesburg exchange is 1,973 ZAr (South African Rand), or $103.94 USD, a whopping 2,078.8 times higher!
If Nicolass followed his own advice based on Armstrong’s advice, he did not move into Super-Fortune or Ultra-Wealth status.
Is that how you worked in finances, or whatever it was you did, for over 30 years?
Given how often Armstrong is so badly wrong, how much money did you or your associates and business partners lose for using the information Armstrong offered?
Again, you’ve stepped into water far over your head.
You simply do not have the experience to objectively understand how wrong you are, or why you are wrong.
And that’s OK.
I provided multiple links showing the price of gold per ounce for the last 20 years. Armstrong made multiple predictions of $5,000 / ounce gold for years and set a deadline. The deadline passed, $5,000 gold never happened. Neither did these predictions from "Martin Armstrong – Gold Bullion To “Max Out At $5,000 Per Ounce":
– Fall 2015 turning point – civil unrest and riots globally says forecaster Armstrong
– European banks will collapse and “blood in the streets”
– Gold to “max out at $5000 per ounce”
That is not everything from that link, not that it matters. These events did not happen. End of story. It doesn't take an economist, self appointed experts, or one with years of experience in the finance to know this.
I explained some of Armstrong's tricks, making wild predictions about events that are already happening and telling people what they already know. Someone with decades of experience in finance should know how to spot a fraud like this.
—> Someone with decades of experience in finance should know how to spot a fraud like this.
We do know how to spot a fraud.
We pay Armstrong for research because he isn’t a fraud.
Simple as that.
Who is “we”?
—> Who is we?
“ Someone with decades of experience in finance ”
You have posted threads about Armstrong and defended him.
You brought it up, it is fair to ask you to back it up.
Who is this "we" that is paying Armstrong for his research?
—> Who is this “we” that is paying Armstrong for his research?
As I’ve written to you 2-3 x already:
Investment professionals. Family offices, private investment managers, hedge fund managers, etc.
Yes widget. All advisors who are on the top 10% of SEC registrations - though typically not the mutual funds.
Previously you have stated you were a a professional investment manager and mutual and hedge fund manager. You have posted several threads by Martin Armstrong going back to 2013, and defended him on the forum.
Now you admit in post #44, that you actively seek out and pay for his research. You also repeated what you said in what said in post #20 on my "Martin Armstrong's Bad Calls" thread that may people in the industry, which you now claim include the top 10% of SEC registered advisers, pay for and use his research.
In Armstrong's 2009 guilty plea, the SEC permanently barred him from associating with any investment adviser. That ruling has not been overturned. The SEC ruling including his admission of guilt and barred from any future investment advising is her, https://www.sec.gov/files/litigation/opinions/2009/ia-2926.pdf.
It is illegal for him to advise any investment advisor, like yourself. In turn, it is illegal, and completely against professional ethics, for a investment adviser to solicit and pay for advice from who can not legally advise them. In the real world, no professional client wealthy enough to seek the skills of the top 10% of SEC registered investment advisers would knowingly use anyone relying on the advice of a convicted felon the SEC barred from the profession.
So which is it? Are you just a forum troll, or are you breaking the law and betraying your client's trust?
—> It is illegal for him to advise any investment advisor, like yourself. In turn, it is illegal, and completely against professional ethics, for a investment adviser to solicit and pay for advice from who can not legally advise them
I will try to be as kind as I can while telling you the truth.
1. Martin does not “advise” anyone.
And here again, you demonstrate you have no clue about the meaning of “research.” In short, you are so far over your head, you don’t know what you don’t know. And those who do instantly see you are a blowhard.
2. This also means I do not pay Martin for advice, but purchase research. But since you do not apprehend the difference, the distinction is lost on you.
So yes, you are completely wrong yet again.
3. I am no longer working, so you are wrong again.
Seriously, you are a fool at best, who is writing about things you cannot remotely understand.
For this reason I will follow Scripture and leave you to your folly.
In Armstrong’s 2009 guilty plea, the SEC permanently barred him from associating with any investment adviser. That ruling has not been overturned. The SEC ruling including his admission of guilt and barred from any future investment advising
https://www.sec.gov/files/litigation/opinions/2009/ia-2926.pdf.
WOW! Thanks
Word games are distinctions without difference under the law.
—> Word games are distinctions without difference under the law.
Again you demonstrate you do not understand SEC law, which defines terms precisely and is supported by decades of legal enforcement.
Now you can continue to pretend you know things and waste your own time, but I am not willing for you to continue to waste my time.
Martin Armstrong is barred from advising. That means he can not directly or indirectly advise investment advisers, period.
When a investment adviser purchases "research" to buy or sell for their clients, that is accepting investment advice.
Accepting information to use in a advisory capacity from a person barred by the SEC is illegal and a breach of professional ethics.
End of story.
So you're on a first name basis with this crook?
What's that old saying about being careful with the company you keep (or do business with)?
—”“NOW is a great time to sell gold.””
A very good point.
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