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Item One:
On October 1st, the PRC's National Day, a string of high 3 and low to mid 4 earthquakes were felt across China. They were all very shallow at 10-20km deep. One of the signs that a leader has lost the Mandate of Heaven is earthquakes. I know it is superstition but it is important to the Chinese and that is what matters here.
Item Two:
On September 17th, a documentary film was released in the US entitled "Awakening of Four Hundred Million". It details the "Quit the Party" movement in China that emerged after a series of editorials titled "Nine Commentaries on the Communist Party" were published in November 2004. Since then, the number of people who have left the CCP, Youth League, and Young Pioneers is estimated at ~420 million.
It takes a lot of courage to do this in the PRC. This is particularly dangerous to the CCP as it means that there are a lot more people out there unhappy with the CCP but just haven't the courage or aren't desperate enough to quit yet. These beliefs will fuel any civil unrest. The tinder is ready, it awaits the spark and a wind to fan the flames.
Item Three:
The new Apple iPhone 15 continues to crush the competition in the PRC, most notably Huawei. This is despite threats to shut off the functionality for legacy apps and a ban on government employees from using Apple products at work. More as this develops.
Item Four:
This item will take a bit of explaining. Bear with me please. Throughout Chinese history, the national capital, regardless of where it was located, has been associated with wealth and power. Under the CCP, this has been true in spades. Now Beijing authorities are actively trying to drive businesses, particularly manufacturing, out of the city.
In 2011 the Beijing government began moving 'poor' people out of the city. This accelerating after a tragic fire in November of 2017 in an old residential building that had been subdivided and rented out. The municipal authorities began a concerted effort to remove people from subdivided properties and basement apartments.
The Municipal authorities have also been moving manufacturing companies out of the city starting with the heaviest polluters. Manufacturing employment peaked in 2010. There could be any number of reasons for this. Beijing has had an acute shortage of fresh water. This continues even after the South-to-North water divergence project. They continue to pump large amounts of ground water. I have mentioned this before.
This still doesn't explain the venomous attacks on manufacturing. Entire industrial parks have had their buildings torn down. Authorities have announced that as of 2035, all manufacturing sites inside Beijing's fifth ring road will be converted to parks and other green spaces. (For those of you with Google Earth, look for a road marked "G4501") Most of the businesses being removed can't afford to relocate to the countryside and are simply going out of business. All this as unemployment continues to rise.
No city can survive the loss of its poor. This is true throughout history. They are needed to do the myriad of grubby, smelly jobs that make city life possible. It is unpleasant but someone has to do it. I have seen numerous reports over the past six weeks or so that Beijing is noticeably quiet. Gone is much of the night life. Shopping districts are shuttering one store after another. Food trucks and street vendors are disappearing.
The number three industry in Beijing is the food/retail/hospitality industry. Even during COVID they showed a slight increase in profits. They are showing profits DOWN 1.7% since the start of the year. Employment in restaurants is down 5.3% and retail employment is down over 25% over the same period. This can be directly attributed to the loss of manufacturing in the capital.
One of my favorite movie lines was uttered by Fred Thompson in Hunt for Red Oktober. He said, "Russians do things for Russian reasons." I have a pre-publication copy of the book BTW. This mirrored what we were told in the Intel Advanced course. When you don't understand why your enemy it doing something strange, look at it from their perspective. They do things for their reasons and not yours. I am still looking for the Chinese reasons for this. If I find them, I will share them.
I don't know how frequently I will be able to post these updates. I am adjusting badly to new meds. I'm otherwise fine but this update took me over three hours to write.
WWG1WGA
Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)