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Pay attention to the CMBS!!
1 posted on 03/23/2023 3:58:52 AM PDT by EBH
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To: EBH

Are we not simply seeing the Really Big ones gobbling up the slightly smaller banks, until only maybe ten remain, globally. And those ten CAN be bailed out with fiat paper? (Which quickly becomes digital and all THAT comes with...)

No?


2 posted on 03/23/2023 4:05:43 AM PDT by William of Barsoom (In Omnia, Paratus)
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To: EBH

Walmart posted many inflation signals.

Multiple listing services posted many signs of inflation.


3 posted on 03/23/2023 4:10:36 AM PDT by Brian Griffin
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To: EBH

Banks should try to align loan and deposit maturities.


5 posted on 03/23/2023 4:20:21 AM PDT by Brian Griffin
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To: EBH

Tipping point, anyone?

Prepare for barter, including voluntary servitude.


6 posted on 03/23/2023 4:20:21 AM PDT by alloysteel (Why do you call everybody "@sshole"? Because it is gender neutral.)
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To: EBH
Indeed, the current banking crisis has some parallels to 2008, says Neil Fligstein, a sociologist at the University of California, Berkeley who has extensively studied the financial crisis. “Banks are finding themselves with investments that are losing big money, and when depositors come in, they can’t turn them into something liquid fast enough to pay back people who want their deposits,” he says. “That’s what happened in 2008—people had all these mortgage-backed securities and no one knew what they were worth.”

There is a massive difference between 2008 - where capital bases eroded due to credit losses on either CMBS or residential mortgage loans - and 2023 where a handful of banks failed to accurately duration-match their assets and liabilities.

In addition, in 2008 the largest banks in the US were FORCED to take "bailout money." The closest thing to that in 2023 is what appears to be a quasi-managed rescue of First Republic.

Any article on banking where the chief Authority is a sociologist from UC Berkeley pushing a book he wrote, is highly suspect. But in this current environment, Deplorables seem to lap up the MSM, academics, and cranks from the left coasts. We may as well be DU.


7 posted on 03/23/2023 4:20:44 AM PDT by DoodleBob ( Gravity’s waiting period is about 9.8 m/s²)
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To: EBH
Re: "The value of older government bonds plummets as the Fed raises interest rates..."

That is very misleading.

The value of an investment grade bond at maturity does not lose value.

The bond value declines ONLY if you try to sell it BEFORE it reaches maturity, and quite often, in recent years, the pre-maturity value of long dated bonds INCREASED when interest rates were low or going down.

I have not seen ANY public information on bond portfolio duration for the banks that failed. "Duration" is the median amount of time before the entire bond portfolio matures.

I have seen zero hard data that the failed banks have substantially longer duration bonds than healthy banks.

To my eye, Silicon Valley Bank, specifically, was the victim of an old fashioned, pure panic, run on the bank.

8 posted on 03/23/2023 4:38:33 AM PDT by zeestephen (43,000)
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To: EBH

What a relieve, I thought Sniffer ruined the economy.


9 posted on 03/23/2023 4:39:58 AM PDT by depressed in 06 (make Bolshies )
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To: EBH

Ruin the banks, ruin the economy, Institute Central Bank Digital Currency as the “answer” and control how we spend.


10 posted on 03/23/2023 4:44:10 AM PDT by Chauncey Gardiner (Vivamus stultus ignarus mori )
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To: EBH

Let me get this straight. The Bidenomics policies flood the markets with cash in a supply-contrained economy with nascent inflation. Inflation takes off, with the logical response being increasing interest rates. Despite supply issues not being resolved, they flood even more money into the economy, worsening inflation yet again. The rising rates - indeed even a record-duration inverted yield curve - cause the value of long-term bonds to decline precipitously. This, of course, breaks the bank model of income spread - profiting from the normal spread between short term rates paid on deposits and long-term rates earned on those deposits. Of course they have liquidity problems as a result!

But according to this Time piece, this is all the fault of the banks. Sounds like rubbish to me. More likely a story planted by this incompetent administration to shift the blame.


14 posted on 03/23/2023 5:02:59 AM PDT by Be Free (When guns are outlawed, only outlaws will have guns.)
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To: EBH
”…the Great Recession that began in 2007 was caused when banks made risky home loans”

Complete BS. It was caused by the federal government requiring banks to make home loans to anybody who had a pulse, regardless of employment, credit history, or means to repay. Just like the same federal government caused the current crisis by printing $5 trillion “COVID Bucks” out of thin air which ignited inflation forcing the fed to raise interest rates making pre-maturity bonds worth a lot less.

16 posted on 03/23/2023 5:10:38 AM PDT by ProtectOurFreedom (The government's lying liars love to lie)
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To: EBH

Congress needs to admit previous mistakes and pass some regulation bills again.


17 posted on 03/23/2023 5:28:03 AM PDT by familyop ("For they that sleep with dogs, shall rise with fleas" (John Webster, "The White Devil" 1612).)
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To: EBH
What's that old Latin phrase?

Cui bono? Yeah, that's the one.

18 posted on 03/23/2023 5:29:24 AM PDT by Sicon ("All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others." - G. Orwell>)
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To: EBH

” the Fed projected that it wouldn’t stop heightening rates until they topped 4.5% “

Heightening?

Great writing skills. The word is “highifying”, you morons. Or “uppifying”.

Sheesh.


19 posted on 03/23/2023 5:35:56 AM PDT by _longranger81
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To: EBH

Of course, the FED, FDIC, TREASURY, and KPMG auditors saw nothing wrong with the books of SVB and other banks during the past year.


20 posted on 03/23/2023 5:43:18 AM PDT by Presbyterian Reporter
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To: EBH

Time RAGazine can shove it. Demon Rat policies are ruining the economy.

The pretend journalists are trying to blame business for a situation created by the Democrat party.


26 posted on 03/23/2023 6:19:33 AM PDT by Recovering_Democrat
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To: EBH

Should read “Democrats about to ruin the economy again.”


34 posted on 03/23/2023 7:08:56 AM PDT by hollywood12345
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To: EBH

Anyone with even a functioning brain stem would have known that you can’t stay at zero interest forever.


36 posted on 03/23/2023 8:10:04 AM PDT by Boogieman
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To: EBH

Banking mistakes

So that’s what they call it now


39 posted on 03/23/2023 9:15:12 AM PDT by Vaduz (LAWYERS )
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To: EBH

Andrew Jackson was right to fear the banking establishment.


40 posted on 03/23/2023 11:00:56 AM PDT by Sam Gamgee
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