Posted on 10/24/2022 1:08:00 PM PDT by janetjanet998
as of this morning mail ins
Dems 491,693 return rate 26.5% Reps 444,933 return rate 31.8
Dems up 46,760 in mail ins as of this morning
1st day of EV as of 3pm
Reps 40,482 Dems 23,575
Reps +16,907
Keep in mind not all counties started EV yet and the one missing are mostly red!! (will start later in the week)
update of SOS stats
MAIL R 674,916 D 774,387
IPEV R 352,967 D 191,127
Total R 1,027,883 D 965,514
R + 62,369
https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats
The remaining smaller red counties online today and less mail ins collected on weekends should be good for Reps
but of course that means around mon-tue the backlog of mail ins come in like usual helping the Dems on those days
SOS
Update 10/30
MAIL R 704,962 D 809,561
IPEV R 417,918 D 227,272
TOTAL R 1,122,880 D 1,036,833
R + 86,047
with no mail ins on the weekend, D lead under 1900 votes and falling
https://tqv.vrswebapps.com/?state=FL&county=dad
If there is finally a bigger Red wave it will also be for the mistake by Dems focusing so much on abortion - not on issues which are most decisive.
Dems lead now under 1400 in Dade
no mail ins over the weekend
Mail in weekend Backlog mon-weds may mean a delay in R’s taking the lead until weds-thurs?
10/31
Reps now up 95,751 overall
11/1
R now up 137,394 statewide
D up 1029 in Dade
Florida’s Voice
@FLVoiceNews
NEW: Republicans expanded their lead over Democrats by 39,285 today (mail-in + in-person)
✅REP lead over DEM is 177,355 (+292,771 from 2020)
🔴1,425,966 Republicans
🔵1,248,611 Democrats
MIAMI-DADE SWING ALERT:
🚨 REP gained 758 votes on DEM today
🗳️ DEM lead is .07%, 215 votes
Florida’s Voice
@FLVoiceNews
🚨#BREAKING: In a historic move, Republicans have taken the lead in Miami-Dade County early + mail-in voting over Democrats
🔴 118,889 Republicans
🔵 118,878 Democrats
⚪️ 66,757 Independents
>In a historic move, Republicans have taken the lead in Miami-Dade County early + mail-in voting over Democrats
DAYUM...the Dems are probably ignoring this for the polls but this looks REALLY bad. You can’t make up this kind of margin in PA and AZ no matter how hard you try, so the Dems might give up completely.
DAYUM...the Dems are probably ignoring this for the polls but this looks REALLY bad. You can’t make up this kind of margin in PA and AZ no matter how hard you try, so the Dems might give up completely.
other areas look ‘better” for Dems but there as got to be something going on more than just Desantis
Florida’s Voice
@FLVoiceNews
TODAY: REPs end off Nov. 2 with a 217,835 lead over DEMs (net +40,417 today), and remain ahead in Miami-Dade County by 1,146
STATEWIDE:
🔴 1,555,567 Republicans (+6.09%)
🔵 1,337,732 Democrats
MIAMI-DADE:
🔴 128,306 Republicans (+0.35%)
🔵 127,160 Democrats
2020 COMPARISON:
🔵 Election Day, 2020 - D+115,416
🔴 5 days to Election Day, 2022 - R+217,835
Yeah I can’t really speak to other states, not that familiar with the trends.
My rough guess: 30k on Thursday and Friday, 20k on a slower Saturday and let’s call Sunday a push. Sunday EV is limited to major metro areas (plus a few red counties impacted by Ian), so while EV has not been kind to the Dems anywhere but Broward, it won’t help us much either at that point.
Would be pushing 300k (8%-ish?) advantage by Election Day? I can’t imagine the Democrats are expecting some massive turnout on ED given the EV trends.
I was expecting more mail ins as we get closer but guess not
Don’t forget Monday only a few red Ian counties voting and the rest mail ins
So dems should gain that day
Lol
Florida Election News
As of today, here’s how many people have voted:
🔴853,589 (Vote By Mail)
🔵986,847 (VBM)
🔴836,111 (In-Person Early Voting)
🔵442,076 (IPEV)
🔴1,689,700 (VBM + IPEV)
🔵1,428,923 (VBM + IPEV)
Republicans lead with 260,777 more votes than the democrats.
Now 308k after Friday, I clearly underestimated! Although I don’t think the weekend will be near as favorable as these last few days. Definitely not Sunday.
Blowout nonetheless.
Although I don’t think the weekend will be near as favorable as these last few days.
The percentage of IPEV the R’s got today was 49.9% down from the mid 50’s earlier in the week but still.
less mail in over the weekend but most red counties not running Sunday, but big Blue counties are
Monday will only have mail ins and a few hurricane Ian Counties
I would estimate (more like a guess) whatever the R lead is noon tomorrow will be the final lead going into ED
Sunday might be a wash and Monday Dems will cut into it a little (so last half of Sat R gain will be eaten away by monday)
#ThePersistence
@ScottPresler
·
1h
Florida Election News
As of today, here’s how many people have voted:
🔴888,328 (Vote By Mail)
🔵1,032,279 (VBM)
🔴972,396 (In-Person Early Voting)
🔵522,150 (IPEV)
🔴1,860,724 (VBM + IPEV)
🔵1,554,429 (VBM + IPEV)
Republicans lead with 306,295 more votes than the democrats.
Florida Election News
As of today, here’s how many people have voted:
Vote By Mail (VBM)
🔴912,427
🔵1,063,734
In-Person Early Voting (IPEV)
🔴1,086,949
🔵598,457
VBM + IPEV
🔴1,999,376
🔵1,662,191
Republicans lead with 337,185 more votes than the democrats.
I think we’ll know pretty quick if Election Day is an extension of IP-EV or closer to an even R/D split. By 10-11am ET it will probably be pretty representative of what we’re gonna see.
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