Iran Update, July 5, 2025
European officials are concerned that Iran may try to develop a nuclear weapon to deter future attacks and that Iran may be able to build a weapon in secret unless a nuclear agreement enables the IAEA to resume inspections.[7] These concerns understate the significant challenges Iran’s nuclear program faces in terms of Israeli penetration and weaponization. Three unspecified European officials cited by The Washington Post assessed that US strikes on Iran have likely strengthened hardline Iranian leaders’ belief that Iran must develop a nuclear weapon to deter future foreign intervention.[8] A former European diplomat suggested that Iran would attempt to develop a nuclear weapon “as secretly as possible.”[9] The IAEA did not have access to all Iranian facilities before the strikes, including multiple facilities associated with the pre-2003 Iranian nuclear weapons program.[10] Israeli intelligence has consistently provided exclusive information about Iran’s nuclear program that the IAEA has not provided (at least publicly).[11] For example, Israeli intelligence—not the IAEA—revealed that Iran was using computer modelling for research at Parchin Military Complex, a site that is linked to the nuclear program and that the IAEA has had difficulty accessing in the past.[12] Computer modelling can be used to model different nuclear weapon designs before producing an arsenal. Israeli intelligence, not IAEA inspections, drove Israeli concerns about Iranian weaponization and the Israeli decision to strike. The loss of IAEA inspections in Iran will certainly decrease the availability of open-source information on Iran’s nuclear program, but it is far from clear that the loss of these inspections would make it possible for Iran to build a weapon in secret.
Iran also faces challenges if it tries to weaponize because Iran will need large-scale production facilities to build a nuclear arsenal. Iran, if it chooses to weaponize, will almost certainly pursue a nuclear arsenal instead of a single nuclear weapon, as CTP-ISW has long assessed.[13] The development of a nuclear arsenal would require extensive rebuilding of Iranian facilities amid a major counterintelligence campaign that will undoubtedly create friction within the nuclear program. The scale of the facilities and time required for their development would make it very difficult for Iran to weaponize in secret. There are also additional challenges associated with miniaturizing a weapon so that it can be used on a nuclear-tipped ballistic missile, rather than deploying the weapon as a bomb. Any Iranian progress to weaponize will presumably be slowed by major Iranian counterintelligence investigations within the program, which could make it more difficult for surviving Iranian nuclear scientists to do their work.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-5-2025
Iran Update, July 6, 2025
Iran is targeting minorities for perceived disloyalty, which will almost certainly reinforce pre-existing anti-regime sentiment and could spark more unrest over time. British media reported on July 6 that armed Iranian “intelligence agents” have conducted dozens of coordinated raids across Iran targeting Bahai religious minority members.[1] Iranian authorities reportedly seized electronic devices, personal belongings, and religious material that is being treated as contraband.[2] Bahai members have frequently been accused of espionage and anti-regime activities.[3] Iran‘s aggressive targeting of minorities for perceived disloyalty may not act as the proximate trigger for major protests, but it will contribute to frustrations that could explode into mass protests after a salient event, as happened during the Mahsa Amini protests. The death of Mahsa Amini in police custody acted as the proximate cause for protests in Tehran that rapidly expanded to Kurdish areas of Iran in Fall 2022. The regime has long oppressed Iranian Kurds, but Mahsa Amini’s death acted as a salient event that caused unexpected unrest.[4]
Iran has arrested over 700 individuals on espionage accusations since the start of the Israel-Iran War on June 12.[5] The arrests include several individuals whom the regime characterized as ”Mossad spies.”[6] Regime authorities, for example, arrested someone they called a Mossad ”associate” on July 6 for collecting information on military sites and attempting to send the information to ”hostile intelligence services.”[7] First Deputy of the Iranian Judiciary Hamzeh Khalili stated on June 27 that the judiciary will pursue Israeli ”spies” and called on Iranians to inform the authorities of any dangerous or suspicious activities.[8] CTP-ISW assessed on June 27 that Iran’s concern about Israeli infiltration and covert operations in Iran may be used as justification for broader crackdowns on society.[9]
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei made his first public appearance since moving to a secure location on June 12. He attended a public religious ceremony for the Shia festival of Ashura at Imam Khomeini Hosseinyeh Mosque in Tehran on July 5.[10] Ashura is an important Shia religious holiday that mourns the Prophet Mohammad’s grandson, Imam Hossein.[11] It would be very significant if Khamenei did not attend the ceremony, and there is much less risk that Israel would attempt to kill Khamenei due to the ceasefire. Khamenei stated that Iran will “never surrender” to Israel during the ceremony, which is consistent with post-war Iranian messaging.[12]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-6-2025