Iran Update, July 6, 2025
Iran is targeting minorities for perceived disloyalty, which will almost certainly reinforce pre-existing anti-regime sentiment and could spark more unrest over time. British media reported on July 6 that armed Iranian “intelligence agents” have conducted dozens of coordinated raids across Iran targeting Bahai religious minority members.[1] Iranian authorities reportedly seized electronic devices, personal belongings, and religious material that is being treated as contraband.[2] Bahai members have frequently been accused of espionage and anti-regime activities.[3] Iran‘s aggressive targeting of minorities for perceived disloyalty may not act as the proximate trigger for major protests, but it will contribute to frustrations that could explode into mass protests after a salient event, as happened during the Mahsa Amini protests. The death of Mahsa Amini in police custody acted as the proximate cause for protests in Tehran that rapidly expanded to Kurdish areas of Iran in Fall 2022. The regime has long oppressed Iranian Kurds, but Mahsa Amini’s death acted as a salient event that caused unexpected unrest.[4]
Iran has arrested over 700 individuals on espionage accusations since the start of the Israel-Iran War on June 12.[5] The arrests include several individuals whom the regime characterized as ”Mossad spies.”[6] Regime authorities, for example, arrested someone they called a Mossad ”associate” on July 6 for collecting information on military sites and attempting to send the information to ”hostile intelligence services.”[7] First Deputy of the Iranian Judiciary Hamzeh Khalili stated on June 27 that the judiciary will pursue Israeli ”spies” and called on Iranians to inform the authorities of any dangerous or suspicious activities.[8] CTP-ISW assessed on June 27 that Iran’s concern about Israeli infiltration and covert operations in Iran may be used as justification for broader crackdowns on society.[9]
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei made his first public appearance since moving to a secure location on June 12. He attended a public religious ceremony for the Shia festival of Ashura at Imam Khomeini Hosseinyeh Mosque in Tehran on July 5.[10] Ashura is an important Shia religious holiday that mourns the Prophet Mohammad’s grandson, Imam Hossein.[11] It would be very significant if Khamenei did not attend the ceremony, and there is much less risk that Israel would attempt to kill Khamenei due to the ceasefire. Khamenei stated that Iran will “never surrender” to Israel during the ceremony, which is consistent with post-war Iranian messaging.[12]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-6-2025
Forces from the (3rd) “Alexandroni” Brigade, in collaboration with field operatives, carried out an operation last night to apprehend an operational team directed by Iran's Quds Force in the “Tel Kudna” area in southern Syria.
For the second time in the past week, divisional forces executed a precise and covert nighttime operation, apprehending several threatening operatives in the area. The 210th Division forces remain deployed in the region, actively operating and preventing the establishment of any terrorist elements in Syria, with the aim of protecting Israeli citizens.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian took advantage of an interview with American media personality Tucker Carlson on July 7 to platform Iran's demands and misrepresent Iran's destabilizing activities and role in the Middle East.[1] Pezeshkian leveraged the interview to falsely present Iran as a peaceful force in the Middle East to a Western audience. Pezeshkian stated that Iran has never sought and will never seek a nuclear weapon.[2] The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed in May 2025 that Iran conducted undeclared nuclear activities that could support the development of nuclear weapons at three locations in Iran until the early 2000s.[3] The IAEA also reported in May 2025 that Iran possessed 408.6 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium, which is enough uranium, if enriched further, to produce nearly 10 nuclear weapons.[4] Pezeshkian claimed that Iran has “never shied away from [IAEA] verification” and is “ready for another inspection.”[5] Iran has historically restricted IAEA oversight in Iran, including by withdrawing the certifications of several inspectors in 2023.[6] Iran's Guardian Council approved a bill on June 26 that suspends Iran's cooperation with the IAEA and bars inspectors from accessing Iran's nuclear facilities.[7] Pezeshkian also claimed that Iran has “always been after peace.”[8] Iran has cultivated a transnational coalition of partners and proxies since 1979 to pursue its strategic interests, including expelling the United States from the Middle East and destroying the Israeli state. Iran and the Axis of Resistance have conducted numerous attacks against Israel and US forces across the region. Iran supported the Axis of Resistance against Israel during the October 7 War and has sought to reconstitute its proxies, such as Hezbollah, after the war.
Pezeshkian separately reiterated Iran's demands for nuclear negotiations. Pezeshkian indicated that Iran continues to reject the US demand for zero uranium enrichment and stated that Iran will only resume nuclear negotiations if Israel is not “allowed” to resume attacks on Iran. Senior US and Israeli officials have indicated that they could resume attacks on Iran if Iran attempts to reconstitute its nuclear program.[9]
Senior Iranian officials have claimed that Iran retains a significant missile stockpile that it can use to attack Israel.[10] Israeli airstrikes on Iran between June 12 and 24 likely degraded Iran's missile program, however. Supreme Leader Military Affairs Adviser Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi stated on July 7 that Iran has produced thousands of missiles and drones and warned that Iran still retains the capability to attack Israel.[11] The IDF reported on June 17 that it had destroyed “about half” of Iran's ballistic missile launchers and between 35 to 45 percent of Iran's ballistic missile stockpile.[12] Israeli airstrikes also destroyed at least 20 Iranian missile bases and several factories related to Iran's ballistic missile program.[13]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-7-2025