Iran Update, May 20, 2025
Iran is deepening high-level defense cooperation with Armenia, likely as part of a broader strategy to counter Israeli, Turkish, and Western influence in the South Caucasus. Iranian Defense and Armed Forces Logistics Minister Brigadier General Aziz Nasir Zadeh met with Armenian Defense Minister Suren Papikyan in Yerevan, Armenia, on May 20.[30] The Iranian Defense Ministry is responsible for foreign arms sales and defense agreements. Nasir Zadeh expressed support for peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan, stating that Iran is ready to help accelerate the peace process between the two countries. Nasir Zadeh and Papikyan signed a Memorandum of Cooperation (MoC) between their respective defense ministries. Nasir Zadeh’s visit likely reflects advanced defense talks rather than initial Iranian outreach to Armenia, given Nasir Zadeh’s seniority in the Iranian regime.[31] Iran has historically maintained close ties to Armenia and has reportedly provided security assistance to Armenia in recent years. Israeli media claimed in July 2023, for example, that Armenia had used Iranian Shahed drones in its conflict with Azerbaijan.[32] Iran and Armenia recently conducted their first-ever joint military exercise in northwestern Iran on April 9 and 10 to bolster border security and counter-terrorism coordination.[33] Iran may seek to increase military and defense cooperation with Armenia in the coming months, particularly as Iran appears to be growing increasingly concerned about Israeli, Turkish, and Western influence in the South Caucasus.
Iran is simultaneously maintaining military, political, and economic ties with Azerbaijan to counter external influences in the South Caucasus. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Ground Forces Mirza Kuchak Khan Special Forces Brigade and Azerbaijani Special Forces began joint exercises along the Iran-Azerbaijan border on May 17. The exercises will continue until May 21.[34] The exercises included coordinated tactical drills and simulated counter-terrorism operations. Armed Forces General Staff-affiliated media framed the exercises as a strategic show of force aimed at enhancing combat readiness, expanding bilateral defense cooperation, countering Israeli “military movements,” and reinforcing Iran’s role in shaping regional security and stability in the South Caucasus.[35] This exercise follows a series of high-level Israeli-Azerbaijani engagements in recent weeks. Israeli government officials have recently called for including Azerbaijan in the Abraham Accords and increasing “trilateral cooperation” between Azerbaijan, Israel, and the United States.[36] US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff visited Baku on March 14 to discuss US-Israel-Azerbaijan trilateral coordination and strengthen ties between the three countries under the Abraham Accords framework.[37] Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz separately met with his Azerbaijani counterpart in Israel on May 19 to discuss bolstering defense cooperation.[38] The Iranian regime has historically accused Baku of allowing Israel to use Azerbaijani territory to launch operations against Iran.[39] IRGC-affiliated media in February 2025 called the Israeli-Azerbaijani alliance a direct threat to Iranian national security and warned that Israel uses Azerbaijani territory for intelligence operations and exploiting ethnic tensions inside Iran.[40]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-20-2025
Iran Update, May 20, 2025
An unsanctioned oil tanker that is operated by a US-sanctioned entity and has probably illicitly transported oil to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) from Iran issued a false distress call in the Strait of Hormuz on May 20.[1] The Panamanian-flagged oil tanker the Themir likely issued a distress call that claimed it had been hijacked.[2] A British maritime security firm said that the distress call occurred 51 nautical miles northwest of Bandar-e Jask, which is consistent with the Themir’s position. The firm confirmed on May 21 that the hijacking call was a false alarm.[3] It remains unclear at the time of writing why the Themir issued the false distress call, but the vessel is linked to Iranian efforts to illicitly transfer oil.[4] The United States sanctioned the Themir’s Malaysia-based owner, IMS Ltd, on February 24 for aiding the Iranian oil export network, as part of US President Donald Trump’s ”maximum pressure” policy.[5]
The Themir’s pattern of behavior suggests it may have conducted a ship-to-ship transfer at some time while off the coast of Iran.[6] Iran and the PRC use ship-to-ship transfers to obfuscate the transportation of PRC purchases of Iranian oil, and ships travel in circular holding patterns when conducting ship-to-ship transfers.[7] The Themir was in a circular holding pattern 51 nautical miles northwest of Bandar-e Jask Port on the southern coast of Iran at the time of the distress call, according to maritime data.[8] The ship and its two sister ships—the Peterpaul and the Chamtang—have regularly sailed between the Gulf of Oman and the PRC.[9] Both the Peterpaul and the Chamtang are sanctioned for illicit transfers of Iranian oil to the PRC.[10] The ships usually enter circular holding patterns in the Gulf of Oman before sailing eastwards to PRC ports. Circular holding patterns can indicate that the ships are executing ship-to-ship transfers.[11] The Themir also previously travelled from the Gulf of Oman to the PRC’s biggest oil offloading port, Shandong Port, in September 2024.[12] The US Treasury Department recently sanctioned refineries in Shandong for importing billions of dollars in Iranian oil.[13] The Themir has also travelled along similar routes as its two sanctioned sister ships from near Bandar-e-Jask Port to eastern PRC through the Gulf of Oman and Malacca Strait five times since January 2024, suggesting that the Themir has previously illicitly transported Iranian oil to the PRC.[14]
Iranian Artesh Commander Major General Abdol Rahim Mousavi met with Belarusian Deputy Chief of the General Staff Major General Vladimir Kupriyanyuk on May 21 to discuss defense cooperation.[41] Both sides emphasized the importance of strengthening ties in key areas, including military training, experience-sharing, and broader defense coordination. Iran and Belarus previously signed two memoranda of understanding on defense and trade cooperation in March and April 2024, respectively. Iran has begun work on establishing a military drone factory in Belarus since May 2023 to support the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[42] Cooperation between Iran and Belarus, a key Russian ally, comes amid increased engagement and defense coordination between Iranian and Russian defense officials since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.[43]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-21-2025