Iran Update, May 20, 2025
An unsanctioned oil tanker that is operated by a US-sanctioned entity and has probably illicitly transported oil to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) from Iran issued a false distress call in the Strait of Hormuz on May 20.[1] The Panamanian-flagged oil tanker the Themir likely issued a distress call that claimed it had been hijacked.[2] A British maritime security firm said that the distress call occurred 51 nautical miles northwest of Bandar-e Jask, which is consistent with the Themir’s position. The firm confirmed on May 21 that the hijacking call was a false alarm.[3] It remains unclear at the time of writing why the Themir issued the false distress call, but the vessel is linked to Iranian efforts to illicitly transfer oil.[4] The United States sanctioned the Themir’s Malaysia-based owner, IMS Ltd, on February 24 for aiding the Iranian oil export network, as part of US President Donald Trump’s ”maximum pressure” policy.[5]
The Themir’s pattern of behavior suggests it may have conducted a ship-to-ship transfer at some time while off the coast of Iran.[6] Iran and the PRC use ship-to-ship transfers to obfuscate the transportation of PRC purchases of Iranian oil, and ships travel in circular holding patterns when conducting ship-to-ship transfers.[7] The Themir was in a circular holding pattern 51 nautical miles northwest of Bandar-e Jask Port on the southern coast of Iran at the time of the distress call, according to maritime data.[8] The ship and its two sister ships—the Peterpaul and the Chamtang—have regularly sailed between the Gulf of Oman and the PRC.[9] Both the Peterpaul and the Chamtang are sanctioned for illicit transfers of Iranian oil to the PRC.[10] The ships usually enter circular holding patterns in the Gulf of Oman before sailing eastwards to PRC ports. Circular holding patterns can indicate that the ships are executing ship-to-ship transfers.[11] The Themir also previously travelled from the Gulf of Oman to the PRC’s biggest oil offloading port, Shandong Port, in September 2024.[12] The US Treasury Department recently sanctioned refineries in Shandong for importing billions of dollars in Iranian oil.[13] The Themir has also travelled along similar routes as its two sanctioned sister ships from near Bandar-e-Jask Port to eastern PRC through the Gulf of Oman and Malacca Strait five times since January 2024, suggesting that the Themir has previously illicitly transported Iranian oil to the PRC.[14]
Iranian Artesh Commander Major General Abdol Rahim Mousavi met with Belarusian Deputy Chief of the General Staff Major General Vladimir Kupriyanyuk on May 21 to discuss defense cooperation.[41] Both sides emphasized the importance of strengthening ties in key areas, including military training, experience-sharing, and broader defense coordination. Iran and Belarus previously signed two memoranda of understanding on defense and trade cooperation in March and April 2024, respectively. Iran has begun work on establishing a military drone factory in Belarus since May 2023 to support the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[42] Cooperation between Iran and Belarus, a key Russian ally, comes amid increased engagement and defense coordination between Iranian and Russian defense officials since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.[43]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-21-2025
Recent Iranian statements suggest that key Iranian leaders are considering moving nuclear material to unspecified “secure” locations to protect nuclear material from a strike after recent leaks about a potential Israeli strike. Iranian Supreme Leader Adviser and former Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Secretary Ali Shamkhani suggested on April 10 that that Iran could transfer enriched uranium to “secure locations” if the United States and Israel continue to make military threats.”[7] Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi threatened on May 22 that Iran will take “special measures” to preemptively protect its nuclear facilities amid recent Israeli threats to strike Iranian nuclear facilities.[8] Araghchi and Shamkhani‘s statements indicate that Iran is considering moving enriched uranium specifically. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is currently able to monitor Iranian enriched uranium stockpiles stored in declared sites. Iran appears to be responding to widespread leaks about a potential impending Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities.[9]
The Iranian Defense Ministry showcased Iranian defense equipment at the 12th International Exhibition of Arms and Military Machinery (MILEX-2025) in Minsk, Belarus, on May 22, likely as part of an Iranian effort to promote and sell its weapons systems.[10] The exhibition included 150 companies from Iran, Russia, China, Pakistan, and India. Iranian Defense Ministry Spokesperson Brigadier General Reza Talaei Nik met with Belarusian Defense Minister Lieutenant General Viktor Khrenin and Chief of the General Staff Major General Pavel Muraveiko on the sidelines of the exhibition. Senior Iranian officials, including Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri, have repeatedly stated that Iran aims to export military capabilities to ”friendly” countries.[11] The Iranian Defense Ministry is responsible for foreign arms sales and defense agreements.[12] Iran's efforts to increase its military and defense exports come amid the US ”maximum pressure” campaign aimed at driving Iranian oil exports to zero.[13] Iran may seek to increase its military exports to offset the effects of US sanctions, though these exports cannot replace the loss of oil revenue. The Iranian Defense Ministry reportedly showcased more than 50 military systems at the MILEX-25, including drones, rockets, and loitering munitions.[14] Iran separately has begun efforts to establish a military drone factory in Belarus since May 2023 to support the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[15]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-22-2025