Posted on 10/08/2022 1:05:38 PM PDT by nuconvert
Iranian Regime national tv Channel One hacked about an hour ago. During a broadcast of Khamenie speech, a red crosshair appeared over his face and chanting of Women. Life. Freedom. There was writing to the side saying "Rise up. Join us". Also 4 photos at the bottom of the screen of young people killed and additional writing: "The blood of our youth is dropping from your paws".
Also, there was a huge banner in the middle of Tehran highway today that read: We are no longer afraid of you. We will fight.
Also, attempted attack on IRI ambassador in Denmark. Her bodyguard was stabbed. Diplomatic Security intervened before the attacker could stab the ambassador.
Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi threatened senior Saudi officials, warning that the Axis of Resistance would attack Saudi energy assets and infrastructure if Saudi Arabia supports an Israeli attack on Iran, according to anonymous Iranian officials speaking to Reuters.[1] Araghchi traveled to Riyadh on October 9 to discuss the October 7 War with senior Saudi officials.[2] Araghchi said that Iran “sent a clear message” to Saudi Arabia that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias or the Houthis could “respond” if Saudi Arabia supports an Israeli attack.[3] Reuters separately reported that Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates have told the United States that they will deny Israel use of their respective airspaces to attack Iran, citing three unspecified Gulf sources. The sources added that the Gulf states are pushing the United States to prevent Israel from attacking Iranian energy assets or infrastructure because they fear that such an attack could trigger Iranian-backed attacks on them.[4] Araghchi traveled to Doha following his one-day visit to Riyadh and met with Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim al Thani on October 10, presumably to convey a similar warning.[5]
Iranian Parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Committee member Alaeddin Boroujerdi said on October 10 that Iran could withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in response to an Israeli strike on Iran.[6] Boroujerdi said that a withdrawal “could be necessary to defend [Iranian] interests.” Boroujerdi suggested that Iran could then build a nuclear weapon in this scenario. Iran ratified the NPT, which prohibits nuclear weaponization, in 1970 and has repeatedly threatened to withdraw to impose pressure on the West.[7]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-10-2024
Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi threatened senior Saudi officials, warning that the Axis of Resistance would attack Saudi energy assets and infrastructure if Saudi Arabia supports an Israeli attack on Iran, according to anonymous Iranian officials speaking to Reuters.[1] Araghchi traveled to Riyadh on October 9 to discuss the October 7 War with senior Saudi officials.[2] Araghchi said that Iran “sent a clear message” to Saudi Arabia that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias or the Houthis could “respond” if Saudi Arabia supports an Israeli attack.[3] Reuters separately reported that Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates have told the United States that they will deny Israel use of their respective airspaces to attack Iran, citing three unspecified Gulf sources. The sources added that the Gulf states are pushing the United States to prevent Israel from attacking Iranian energy assets or infrastructure because they fear that such an attack could trigger Iranian-backed attacks on them.[4] Araghchi traveled to Doha following his one-day visit to Riyadh and met with Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim al Thani on October 10, presumably to convey a similar warning.[5]
Iranian Parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Committee member Alaeddin Boroujerdi said on October 10 that Iran could withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in response to an Israeli strike on Iran.[6] Boroujerdi said that a withdrawal “could be necessary to defend [Iranian] interests.” Boroujerdi suggested that Iran could then build a nuclear weapon in this scenario. Iran ratified the NPT, which prohibits nuclear weaponization, in 1970 and has repeatedly threatened to withdraw to impose pressure on the West.[7]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-10-2024
Iran and Russia are continuing to deepen bilateral relations. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian met with Russian President Vladimir Putin for the first time in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, on October 11.[18] Pezeshkian expressed hope that Iran and Russia will sign the comprehensive strategic cooperation agreement during Pezeshkian’s upcoming trip to attend the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, from October 22-24.[19] This is a 20-year cooperation agreement between Iran and Russia that will replace previous cooperation agreements, but the exact specifics of the agreement are not publicly available.[20] Putin and Pezeshkian both said that Russia and Iran frequently share positions and coordinate regarding international events.[21] Putin approved the signing of a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement with Iran on September 19.[22] Pezeshkian stated that he asked Putin to act “more effectively” in response to Israeli operations in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip.[23] Putin said that he was satisfied with the volume of trade between Iran and Russia.[24] Russian media reported that Pezeshkian accepted Putin's invitation for an official visit to Russia at an unspecified time in the future.[25]
Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah threatened to start an “energy war” on October 10, which is likely part of an Iranian-led effort to compel the United States to pressure Israel into a less-costly retaliatory strike. The Iranian foreign minister reportedly threatened senior Saudi officials that the Axis of Resistance would attack Saudi energy assets if Saudi Arabia were to support an Israeli attack on Iran.[12] Reuters reported on October 10 that Gulf countries are pushing the United States to prevent Israel from attacking Iranian energy assets or infrastructure because they fear that such an attack could trigger Iranian-backed attacks on them.[13] This reporting suggests that Iran and its proxies are attempting to exert pressure on Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, which Iran could calculate would then cause the US Gulf Arab allies to encourage US efforts to pressure Israel to conduct a less-costly strike on Iran.[14] Kataib Hezbollah spokesman Abu Ali al Askari released a statement on October 10, threatening to start an energy war with the aid of Iran in the Strait of Hormuz and the Houthis in the Bab al Mandab.[15] Askari’s statement characterized Arab and Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, as “evil regimes” for their support of Israel.[16] Askari also threatened to target US forces in Iraq and the region if Iraq is attacked or if Iraqi airspace is used to attack Iran, likely to pressure the United States to deter Israel from attacking Iran.[17] These threats support Iran's efforts to deter a more costly Israeli strike on Iran.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-11-2024
“They (Hezbollah) already had thousands of pagers...but three to four thousand new pagers were needed. They asked an Iranian company to place the order. Hezbollah said they could not make the purchase as it would raise suspicions. The company negotiated with a famous Taiwanese brand that used to produce pagers and placed an order for 5,000 pagers. The pagers were delivered to the Iranian company. They were then given to Hezbollah,” said Asadollahi.
Asadollahi’s comments quickly went viral, fueling speculation across media outlets. However, just an hour after his remarks, the same state TV channel issued a denial.
Noor News, a website outlet closely affiliated with Iran's Supreme National Security Council, also posted a tweet on Saturday refuting Asadollahi’s claims. “The incorrect statements made by an expert on IRIB have ignited new speculations surrounding the incident. Iranian companies had no role in the purchase, transport, or distribution of the pagers,” the tweet stated.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-11-2024
The New York Times reported that Hamas asked for Iranian and Lebanese Hezbollah participation in the October 7 attacks in July 2023, underscoring the coordination between Hamas and the wider Axis of Resistance before the operation.[11] Hamas initially sought to attack in Fall 2022, according to minutes from Hamas meetings that the IDF captured in the central Gaza Strip in late January 2024. Hamas delayed the planned Fall 2022 attack to convince Iran and Hezbollah to participate. Hamas Political Bureau member and current Deputy Hamas leader Khalil al Hayya met with the head of the IRGC Quds Force Palestinian Affairs Office and a senior Hezbollah official in July 2023. Hayya specifically requested Hezbollah and Iran target sensitive Israeli sites as the Hamas attack began. The IRGC Quds Force official reportedly told Hayya that Iran and Hezbollah supported the attack in principle but needed time to “prepare the environment.”
This meeting demonstrates that Iran had strategic foreknowledge of the October 7 attacks, but it remains unclear if Iran or Hezbollah had tactical knowledge of the attack's exact timing. Iran and Hezbollah's hesitation may reflect the reality that Iran and Hezbollah would have needed to prepare their own operational plans to support Hamas’ plans successfully, which could take many months. Both Iran and Hezbollah supported the theory of ground attacks into Israel from Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, and Hezbollah had prepared to undertake such an attack if necessary.[12]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-12-2024
Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar negotiated with Iran over financial support for a larger-scale attack on Israel in 2021, underscoring the coordination between Hamas and the wider Axis of Resistance before the October 7 attacks.[18] The Washington Post reported that Sinwar requested funding and military support from numerous senior Iranian officials, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani, in order to “destroy Israel completely in two years.”[19] Iran reportedly agreed to allocate $10 million to the al Qassem Brigades, and several weeks later, Sinwar requested an additional $500 million to be allocated in monthly dividends over two years.[20] Iran's financial support of Hamas and the al Qassem Brigades has been well-established and Western officials have previously estimated that Iran provides Hamas with around $100 million in annual funding for Hamas’ military activities.[21] This funding was instrumental for Hamas to be able to marshal the capabilities required to carry out the October 7 attacks.[22] Sinwar’s direct coordination and communication with senior Iranian officials, along with meetings between Hamas and Iranian officials in July 2023, underscore that Iran had strategic foreknowledge of the October 7 attacks.[23] It remains unclear if Iran had tactical knowledge of the attack's exact timing.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-13-2024
Iranian media reported that Russia will launch two satellites on Iran's behalf after Iran sent the two satellites to Russia on October 11.[18] Iran sent a high-resolution imaging ”Kowsar” satellite and a small ”Hodhod” communications satellite to Russia.[19] Russia was originally scheduled to launch these satellites in December 2023 but was delayed.[20] Russia previously launched two Iranian satellites in August 2022 and February 2024.[21] Russia will launch these satellites using the Soyuz space launch vehicle, which Russia also used in the February 2024 launch.[22] Iran could use the ”Kowsar” satellite to collect imagery on US or allied troop positions and bases in the region. CTP-ISW has not observed acknowledgment of the satellite delivery in Russian media.
Iranian media published the full text of the “Development Plan for the Peaceful Use of Nuclear Technology” on October 14.[25] A parliamentary presidium member recently announced the plan on October 6.[26] The plan calls for the establishment of an “Atomic Energy Council” comprised of 19 members, including the Iranian president and the ministers of energy, foreign affairs, and defense.[27] The plan also stipulates that the National Development Fund must invest at least $1 billion in Iranian nuclear power projects annually.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-14-2024
Iran Update, October 15, 2024
Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani attended IRGC Operations Deputy Brigadier General Abbas Nilforoushan’s funeral in Tehran on October 15.[115] Ghaani was last seen publicly when he visited the Hezbollah office in Tehran on September 29.[116] Western and Middle Eastern outlets speculated that Ghaani was killed or injured during the Israeli airstrike targeting Hashem Safi ed Din—the presumed successor to Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah—in Beirut on October 4.[117] Photos of Ghaani attending Nilforoushan’s funeral confirm Ghaani is alive and in Iran at the time of this writing.[118] Nilforoushan died in the Israeli airstrike that killed Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut on September 27.[119] Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and IRGC Commander Hossein Salami also attended the funeral, among other Iranian senior leadership.[120]
Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Ansar ol Mehdi Protection Corps Sardar Fathullah Jamiri introduced Hadi Melanori as the new commander of the IRGC Aviation Protection Unit on October 12.[121] The IRGC Aviation Protection Unit is responsible for airport and aircraft security to prevent airplane hijackings in Iran.[122] The IRGC Aviation Protection Unit has a ”direct relationship” with other Iranian military institutions including the Artesh and IRGC Aerospace Force.[123] Mohammad Mehdi Masoumi is the former commander of the Aviation Protection Unit.[124]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-15-2024
Iranian Parliamentarian Ali Asghar Nakhaei Rad urged the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) to ask Khamenei to reconsider his 2003 fatwa banning nuclear weapons.[38] Nakhaei Rad emphasized that “time and place” affects fatwas and “Shia jurisprudence is dynamic,” suggesting that current regional conditions could justify a shift in Iran's nuclear doctrine. Nakhaei Rad was among the thirty-nine Iranian parliamentarians who signed a letter to the SNSC calling for a revision of Iranian “defense doctrine” and for the SNSC to “issue permission and provide facilities for the production of nuclear weapons.”[39] CTP-ISW previously assessed that the letter was likely sent to the SNSC to encourage them to persuade Khamenei to reconsider his fatwa, as he has ultimate authority to revoke it.[40]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-16-2024
Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi traveled to Egypt on October 16, marking the first time an Iranian official has visited Egypt since 2014.[11] Araghchi’s visit is likely part of ongoing Iranian-backed efforts to reach a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon.[12] Araghchi and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el Sisi discussed the need to “intensify efforts towards ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon.”[13] Araghchi separately called on regional countries to “redouble” their efforts to stop Israeli “aggression” in the Gaza Strip, West Bank, and Lebanon during a meeting with his Egyptian counterpart, Badr Abdelatty.[14] Egypt—along with Qatar and the United States—has mediated ceasefire and hostage negotiations between Israel and Hamas in recent months. Araghchi’s visit to Egypt is noteworthy given that Iran and Egypt do not have formal diplomatic ties. Iran has increased its efforts to restore diplomatic relations with Egypt in recent years, however.[15]
Iranian hardliners continue to express their support for a revision of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s 2003 fatwa banning nuclear weapons. Senior Iranian parliamentarian and member of the parliament's National Security Commission Vahid Ahmadi stated on October 17 that the 2003 fatwa could be lifted if “conditions change,” likely referring to rising tensions with Israel.[74] Ahmadi emphasized that Iran will reevaluate its nuclear doctrine if it faces threats to its “existence, authority, and integrity.” Ahmadi expressed his support for the letter previously sent by thirty-nine Iranian parliamentarians to the Supreme National Security Council calling for a revision of Iran's nuclear doctrine.[75] These statements from Iranian politicians signal a growing normalization within the regime about Iran's willingness to procure nuclear weapons.[76] Ahmadi also stated that the US Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system in Israel would be among the targets for an Iranian response in the event of an Israeli attack on Iran.[77] Ahmadi’s statements reflect the Iranian regime's ongoing efforts to deter an Israeli attack on Iran following the April 13 and October 1 Iranian attacks on Israel.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-17-2024
Iran Update, October 18, 2024
Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi attended the 3+3 meeting with Russian, Turkish, Azerbaijani, and Armenian officials in Istanbul on October 18, to discuss the regional framework promoting stability in the south Caucasus.[81] Georgia, who is part of the 3+3 group, did not send representatives to the meeting.[82] Araghchi met with Armenian Minister of Foreign Affairs Ararat Mirzoyan on the sidelines of the 3+3 meeting.[83] Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei stated on X (Twitter) that Iran wants to cooperate with its partners at the 3+3 Summit to establish peace and promote economic exchanges.[84] Iran is particularly interested in cooperation with its neighboring South Caucasus partners, given the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict and Azerbaijan’s push to build the Zangezur Corridor, which would cut off Iran’s trade route through Armenia to Europe.[85] Iran also seeks to reduce Israeli influence in the South Caucasus region, which is a reference to the developing Israeli-Azerbaijan relationship.[86]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-18-2024
Iran Update, October 19, 2024
Iranian parliamentarians recently proposed two pieces of legislation to develop the Iranian nuclear program.[67] Forty parliamentarians signed the first piece of legislation, which is titled “Development Plan for the Peaceful Use of Nuclear Technology,” and 63 parliamentarians signed the second piece, which is titled “Plan to Develop [Iran’s] Nuclear Industry.”[68] Both pieces of legislation call for developing new nuclear reactors, including small modular reactors, fast neutron reactors, nuclear fusion reactors, and nuclear research reactors.[69] The legislations also call for increasing Iran’s nuclear power capacity to 7,000 megawatts.[70] Iran currently has one operational 1,000-megawatt nuclear power plant in Bushehr.[71]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-19-2024
Call by radical cleric for war sparks sharp debate in Iran
Bellicose comments about relentless war against Israel and the United States by a radical ayatollah in Iran has led to strong reactions by more moderate clerics, as Iran faces a likely Israeli attack.
A moderate seminarian as well as other critics have lashed out at the hardliner clergyman known to be the spiritual leader of ultraconservative Paydari Party for his comment on resistance against US and Israel at any cost.
Viral videos on social media show hardline cleric Mohammad Mehdi Mirbagheri stating that Muslims “from Israel to Yemen and from Iran to Palestine” must continue their resistance against Israel, even if it leads to the deaths of half the world’s population in the conflict.
According to the Iranian Labor News Agency (ILNA), seminarian Mohammad Taghi Fazel Maybodi criticized hardline cleric Mohammad Mehdi Mirbagheri, stating: “Mr. Mirbagheri suggests that four billion people should die for him to achieve his goal. His destination aligns with the same agenda pushed by the Paydari Party.” Fazel Maybodi further remarked, “It seems Mirbagheri considers himself part of the half meant to survive, otherwise, he’d be in Gaza right now! It’s unfortunate that he makes such statements in the name of Islam.”
more https://www.iranintl.com/en/202410204568
https://x.com/mirbaqeri_ir/status/1847180540773826574
Background
https://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/4099233/posts?page=963#963
https://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/4099233/posts?page=981#981
An Oct. 11, 2024 report by the Britain Israel Communications and Research Centre (BICOM) outlined Iran’s continued production and accumulation of highly enriched uranium. The United Kingdom, France and Germany (known as the E3) have expressed alarm, stating in September 2024 that Iran’s actions “significantly harm international security and undermine the global non-proliferation architecture.” The E3 called on Iran to halt its nuclear escalation and return to the restrictions imposed by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
The United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has also voiced concerns. According to its August 2023 report, Iran is the only non-nuclear-weapon state to produce and accumulate high-enriched uranium. The IAEA noted that Iran has amassed enough 60% enriched uranium to shorten the breakout time to less than two weeks, should it choose to enrich to the 90%, or weapon-grade, level. The BICOM report cites estimates from the Institute for Science and International Security, which indicate that Iran could produce its first 25 kilograms of weapons-grade uranium (enough for one nuclear device) within around one week. Using its advanced centrifuges and current stockpiles, Iran could produce enough material for up to 15 nuclear weapons within five months, according to the report.
Iran’s weaponization progress, the other step needed for the bomb, has also been drawing scrutiny. In March 2024, American and Israeli intelligence agencies obtained evidence of Iranian scientists engaging in research and computer modeling relevant to developing nuclear explosives, the BICOM report noted.
Israeli officials warned in August that Iran is increasingly focused on acquiring the components necessary to build a nuclear warhead. A July 2024 intelligence report, filed to Congress by the U.S. Director of National Intelligence, removed a sentence that appeared in past reports on the subject since 2019, which stated that Iran is not currently undertaking key nuclear weapons-development activities necessary to produce a testable nuclear device.
Iran Update, October 20, 2024
Emirati-based outlet Erem News reported that Lebanese Hezbollah Deputy Secretary General Naim Qassem relocated from Lebanon to Tehran on October 5.[110] Erem News is a UAE-based outlet run by Tajeldin Abdul Haq, a Jordanian national who has previously worked by al Sharq al Awsat and Elaph, which are both London-based outlets.[111] An unspecified Iranian source told Erem News that the “highest authority in Iran,” likely referring to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, ordered Qassem to relocate due to concerns for his safety following a series of Israeli operations targeting senior Axis of Resistance leaders including former Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah and his presumed successor Hashem Safi el Din in Beirut.[112] The Iranian source told Erem News that Qassem accompanied Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi on an Iranian plane to Iran via Syria.[113] The source stated that Qassem delivered his last two recorded speeches on October 7 and October 15 from Tehran.[114] CTP-ISW previously reported that Araghchi traveled from Lebanon to Syria on October 4.[115] CTP-ISW cannot independently corroborate this report.
An Iranian decision to relocate Qassem would be consistent with previous Iranian efforts to convince former Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah to relocate to Tehran to avoid Israeli targeting. Reuters previously reported on October 4 that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reportedly offered to relocate Nasrallah to Tehran days before an Israeli airstrike killed Nasrallah on September 27.[116]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-20-2024
Iran Update, October 21, 2024
Iran is attempting to use spies in Israel to observe Israeli military facilities and possibly to support targeting efforts. The Shin Bet and Israeli police arrested seven Israeli Jewish citizens of Azeri heritage in Haifa and northern Israel on charges of espionage for “hundreds of tasks” for Iranian intelligence agencies in a counterintelligence operation.[33] The suspects had been in contact with Iranian agents, and the Israeli State Attorney’s Office called this the most serious case they have investigated in recent years.[34] The suspects were reportedly recruited using financial inducements that were routed through Russian intermediaries who traveled to Israel.[35]
The suspects reportedly photographed and collected information on key sites in Israel, indicating that Iran may have been using these suspects to support effective targeting of Israel with missiles and drones. Prosecutors stated that police and the Shin Bet accused the suspects of photographing and collecting information on Israeli energy and port infrastructure, IDF base and facilities, including the Kirya defense headquarters in Tel Aviv, Nevatim and Ramat David air bases, and Iron Dome battery sites, for Iran for around two years.[36] The suspects’ handlers also sent maps of certain sites to the suspects, including a map of the Golani Training Base, which Hezbollah struck with a drone on October 13.[37] The fact that the base’s dining facility was struck at dinner time with a Hezbollah drone suggests that some intelligence asset had observed patterns of life and understood the exact layout of the base and specific buildings within the base. Hezbollah has also targeted Iron Dome batteries with drone attacks, which this Iranian-led intelligence effort may have enabled.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-21-2024
Iran Update, October 22, 2024
The Israeli Police arrested seven individuals in East Jerusalem on October 22 on suspicion of planning and supporting attacks for Iran.[28] The Shin Bet and Israeli Police stated in a joint statement that Iran directed the suspects to assassinate a senior Israeli nuclear scientist and the mayor of an undisclosed large city in central Israel.[29] Iran also instructed the individuals to photograph various undisclosed locations, vandalize sites in Jerusalem, and post graffiti calling for the release of the Hamas-held Israeli hostages in the Gaza Strip. This is likely part of an Iranian effort to sow division in Israeli society and increase pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to accept a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. The joint statement confirmed that Israeli security forces arrested the 23-year-old “leader of the ring” who had recruited the six additional members.[30] A security official stated that the seven individuals worked as an “organized cell.”[31] Six of the suspects are Israeli citizens, and the seventh suspect is an Israeli permanent resident.
This report comes one day after Israeli authorities arrested a separate Iranian spy network comprised of seven Israeli citizens who were given “hundreds of tasks” including observing Israeli military facilities.[32] Israeli police arrested an Israeli citizen in September accused of participating in an Iranian plot to assassinate Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.[33] Israeli media reported that this is the fifth public case of Iranian espionage attempts in Israel in the past month.[34]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-22-2024
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian reiterated Iran's intentions to increase ties with Russia and the People's Republic of China (PRC) at the BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia, on October 23.[1] Pezeshkian met with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss Russo-Iranian economic and strategic relations on the sidelines of the summit.[2] Pezeshkian stated that the two officials will finalize and sign memorandums soon, suggesting that both states will sign the new comprehensive strategic partnership agreement.[3] Putin authorized the signing of the deal on September 18.[4]
It is in Iran's interests to have a formalized agreement with Russia. Iran presumably will seek greater international support as Israel's ground and air offensives on the Gaza Strip and Lebanon have disrupted some elements of Iran's proxy network. This disruption is particularly notable given that Hezbollah's capabilities — which now appear degraded by Israeli action at a minimum — have long served as Iran's principal deterrence against Israeli attack.[5] Russia has discouraged Israeli attack on nuclear facilities, demonstrating the advantages of strong Iranian relations with Russia.[6] The Pezeshkian administration's policy continues former President Ebrahim Raisi’s “neighborhood policy.” This policy is centered on building relations with regional and extra-regional states, thus demonstrating the administration's efforts to mitigate the impact of international sanctions and bolster the Iranian economy. The regime calculates that mitigating the impact of sanctions increases domestic stability and regime credibility.[7] Russo-Iranian cooperation has accelerated since the start of Russia's offensive campaign in Ukraine due to Iran's military support in the war.
Pezeshkian also met with PRC President Xi Jinping on October 23.[8] This meeting's details are not publicly available, but the officials probably discussed regional developments and growing Sino-Iranian strategic partnership, including Iranian oil exports to the PRC.[9] Iranian Energy minister Abbas Aliabadi separately discussed trade and foreign capital investment with member countries of the Belt and Road Forum in Qingdao, China.[10]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-23-2024
Could Israeli Attacks Prompt Changes in Iranian Intelligence? by By Steven Ward
Steven R. Ward is a retired CIA intelligence analyst and consultant who specializes in Middle East security affairs. He is the author of Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence: A Concise History, Georgetown University Press, 2024.
Iran responded to the deaths of Nilforushan and Nasrallah by firing two waves of ballistic missiles against Israel on October 1. Still, Tehran appears committed, for now, to avoiding actions that could escalate into a direct conflict involving the Iranian homeland. The Israel-Hamas war has taken a toll on Tehran’s allies, weakening Iran’s deterrent against direct Israeli attack. The cautious Iranians likely want to move the conflict back to the shadows. Given Israel’s intelligence superiority, however, pressure to intensify and improve external operations will be the highest since the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s. Whether the MOIS and IRGC-IO can overcome their historical inertia in collecting critical foreign intelligence and conducting effective external operations to counter Israel—or even better, support Iran’s missile, irregular warfare, and terrorism threats—remains to be seen. Their actions bear watching to determine if the regime learns from these recent failures to make itself a more formidable adversary to Israel and the West in the realms of espionage and covert action.
Iran Update, October 24, 2024
Houthi Supreme Leader Abdulmalik al Houthi vowed to continue missile and naval operations against Israel in his weekly speech on October 24.[103] Abdulmalik claimed that Israel wants to control the security of Lebanon. Abdulmalik reiterated that Iranian-backed Iraqi groups have increased their ”position.“ The Islamic Resistance in Iraq has increased its rate of claimed attacks targeting Israel since mid-September 2024.[104] Abdulmalik praised the recent Hezbollah attack targeting the residence of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Caesarea, Israel, on October 19.[105]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-24-2024
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.