Posted on 10/08/2022 6:08:28 AM PDT by Degaston
For the 2022 midterm elections the control of the US Senate is the biggest battle between the Republicans and Democrats with the race centered on 4 Senate races where the Democrats need to win 3 of them and the Republicans need to win 2 of them to have control. These races are Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada.
Not counting these 4 seats or any surprise upsets (i.e. someone whose odds are at least 3x as much as the other party's odds) the breakdown of the other 96 seats is 45 Dem, 2 Ind (both caucus with Dems), 49 Rep.
Details/links on data below:
100 Senate Seats 29 Carryover Republicans (not up for election) 36 Carryover Democrats/Ind (not up for election) 15 Solid Republican seats 9 Solid Democrat seats 11 Non-Solid (Dems need 5 for majority; Republicans need 7 for majority) 2 lean Dem, 5 lean Rep (i.e. odds between 3x and 10x more than other side on winning race) 47 Dem/I, 49 Rep (barring any huge shift) with 4 close races
2 leaning Dem CO 14-87 NH 18-82
4 close races GA 35-66 PA 42-61 AZ 44-62 NV 65-38
5 leaning Rep NC 76-25 OH 76-24 WI 79-21 UT 89-12 FL 89-11
Links for Data:
https://www.predictit.org/markets/17/US-Elections?filterIds=292 https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings
Note: Charlie Cook tends to be biased and have an agenda. However, he tries to appear relevant so he has to tapdance between his personal agenda and being relevant so he's a decent source for making sure I'm covering all the non-solid races with data from PredictIt. And then with this data you can see for yourselves where the battleground really lies - i.e. those 4 States which just happen to be 4 of the 6 closest States in the 2020 Presidential Election.
(Excerpt) Read more at predictit.org ...
I wouldn’t put NH out of the running either.
We have Bolduc, who seems to be extremely popular and is giving Maggie Hassan a run for her money..
I’m a pessimist by nature and I expect the rats to cheat and win em all
Walker was a great running back. He’s a nice enough guy. He’s a crap candidate
you can watch the archived election night coverage on youtube or elsewhere to confirm this.
I see a 50/50 Senate again.
I have never understood why the states don’t break up the cities into many much small voting areas.
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Arizona polls has Masters in a dead heat will Space Alien Kelly, Laxalt will take Nevada, I think NH is a lost cause ATM, but the R will take over the Senate.
I don’t consider PredictIt or Charlie Cook as Gospel Truth, just sources of data to help us get started on our own analysis.
So, my focus is on the bellwether races.
How to make money. Bet against Predict-it in close races in the 2022 elections. You will be a very happy camper.
That happens. Trump is still right to back him. Kemp, Perdue and Loeffler all socks. If Walker goes down, at least he fought the good fight.
Agreed. I’m working for him plan on voting for him.
The Senate race in Georgia is a good reminder on why its good to make sure that November candidates get plenty of thorough scrutiny long beforehand during the primary process and even much earlier. It’s so stupid to just give away seats.
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