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La Niña's Shock Return Suggests Important Details Are Missing in Climate Models
Science Alert ^ | 05 October 2022 | By CARLY CASSELLA

Posted on 10/05/2022 12:08:51 PM PDT by Red Badger

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To: sasquatch
No no, it’s series.

Don't make me sic a moose on your sister.

21 posted on 10/05/2022 12:46:40 PM PDT by ChuckHam
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To: Red Badger
It sucks when your models don't reflect reality. The only bright spot is the people with the inadequate models are recognizing the discrepancy and asking why. Clearly the models are missing inputs and/or misinterpreting inputs/effects. As long as the models fail to match reality, they are just hypotheticals unsuited for driving public policy.
22 posted on 10/05/2022 12:50:24 PM PDT by Myrddin
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To: KarlInOhio
How's that 1970s Ice Age coming along?
Actually, the current trend is for an ice age, probably of the 'little' variety, as happened a few hundred years ago.

But one of these times it will be the Big One, lasting 110,000 years or so. A full-blown ice age is due any century now.

23 posted on 10/05/2022 1:04:30 PM PDT by citizen (Thieves of private property pass their lives in chains; thieves of public prop. in riches and luxury)
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To: Red Badger

Yeah, ‘details missing’; like the Arctic will be ice free, children in Britain won’t know what snow is, pacific islands will be underwater (or else tip over), just a few minor details like that.


24 posted on 10/05/2022 1:08:15 PM PDT by Roadrunner383 (;)
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To: Red Badger; All
"The climate models are still getting reasonable answers for the average warming," says atmospheric scientist Robert Wills from the University of Washington,

Nonsense.

The answers are pre-determined by those building the models.

If the "answers" are not "reasonable", the people building the models tweak the models.

That is how it is done. There are many variables which have unknown values. Those values are tweaked to make the model look "reasonable".

25 posted on 10/05/2022 1:08:33 PM PDT by marktwain
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To: Red Badger
"With global warming generally increasing sea surface temperatures..."

No need to read further...

26 posted on 10/05/2022 1:20:50 PM PDT by Mr. K (No consequence of repealing obamacare is worse than obamacare itself)
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To: Red Badger

“La Niña’s Shock Return Suggests Important Details Are Missing in Climate Models”

not possible: climate “science” is “settled” ...


27 posted on 10/05/2022 1:21:26 PM PDT by catnipman (In a post-covid world, ALL "science" is now political science: stolen elections have consequences)
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To: Red Badger

The La Niña,El Niño phenomenon was knwn by the indigenous of the west coast of the Americas hundreds of years ago and watched closely.

My mother born 1913 in Arizona, learned of it and did her own almost infallible predictions of the weather based on it.we children all respect those who live by their own watchful eyes according to it position in the Pacific.


28 posted on 10/05/2022 1:41:13 PM PDT by amihow (It is Western Civilization that confers privilege, not whiteness. Ask Carson, MLK, Sowell.)
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To: Red Badger

The frigging SUN is missing from these ‘models’.


29 posted on 10/05/2022 2:12:34 PM PDT by rfp1234 (Comitia asinorum et rhinocerum delenda sunt.)
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To: Red Badger

There’s a 40-thousand mile long ridge of volcanic activity running under the world’s oceans. Both volcanos and hot smokers are transferring terawatts of heat to the oceans daily. This heat flow is assumed to be constant, so it’s not categorized as a ‘variable’ in climate and weather. But we really don’t have a way of measuring the heat transfer or charting it over time.

The core and mantle are heated by fission. Radioactive decay constantly heats the core and that heat drives columns of magma up through the crust. The heat flow and distribution are manifestly lumpy because there is significant variability in volcanic activity over both near-term and geologic time.

Most likely Earth’s core heat migrates towards the surface slowly in giant viscous clumps or bubbles of hotter and less dense material. Sort of like how the material behaves in a lava lamp except on a much longer time scale.

With all this bubbling going on I see no reason to assume the geothermal heat flow into the ocean is completely constant, absent scientific proof. I do see reason to assume the heat flow varies according to the number and intensity of undersea eruptions from one year to the next. The heat flow IS a ‘variable’.


30 posted on 10/05/2022 2:13:56 PM PDT by JustaTech (A mind is a terrible thing)
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To: All

In more general terms, it should be pointed out that before the AGW period there was no working theory of what caused the Pacific to undergo its periodic shifts from El Nino to La Nina states (several variants are recognized, it’s a little more complex than just either/or), and there was never any attempt made by AGW theorists (whether they are right or wrong) to explain the variations or to postulate whether AGW would change the balance.

So in other words, the Pacific variations remain separate from AGW theory and you could postulate that if AGW has some partial merit (humans are partly or even mostly responsible for the recent warming observed) that merit does not extend to any new or greater understanding of these Pacific variations. Pretty much the same can be said for other signals like the Atlantic Oscillation. The best AGW could claim is that they have introduced a theory that takes the old pre-AGW climate and warmed it up by about 1 C degree, without explaining any of the variations within the regional trends (other than some claims made that variability is increasing, itself a controversial claim).

Personally, I might expect in a generally warming climate that El Nino would lose frequency and La Nina would gain frequency; the reason for that is that stronger subtropical highs tend to promote La Nina (by driving more cold water north along the west coast of South America, it is when that process weakens that El Nino patterns develop, so they are correlated with weaker subtropical highs). Some of the observed northern hemisphere weather correlations with El Nino or La Nina may not be direct consequences but just similar responses if the two hemispheres see similar trends in the strength of subtropical highs. This could in theory not be linked either by hemispheres or by different ocean systems. So it’s all rather complex and as we have seen, the AGW approach is a simple one and does not handle complexity very well.


31 posted on 10/05/2022 2:32:09 PM PDT by Peter ODonnell (Cultural elder -- problem is, that only counts for every other culture)
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To: Red Badger

But the science is settled.


32 posted on 10/05/2022 3:54:39 PM PDT by Organic Panic (Democrats. Memories as short as Joe Biden's eyes.)
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To: dfwgator

Another good one!


33 posted on 10/05/2022 4:24:59 PM PDT by nicollo ("I said no!")
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To: Red Badger
La Niña is El Niño's somewhat overlooked twin sister, at least when it comes to our climate models.

In a few years Climate Alarmists will need a BIG EXCUSE to explain why "nothing is happening". La Niña is El Niño can be their out - why the 'mother ship' never came to get them.

34 posted on 10/05/2022 4:34:49 PM PDT by GOPJ (Trump EARNED his money. Same money democrats have to steal from us. It's why they hate him.)
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To: Red Badger

So why don’t we humans stop it? We are all powerful,like the dinosaurs


35 posted on 10/06/2022 5:57:18 AM PDT by ballplayer
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To: Red Badger

With global warming generally increasing sea surface temperatures.

Sun cycles not reported doesn’t fit agenda.


36 posted on 10/06/2022 9:40:45 AM PDT by Vaduz ( )
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To: ChuckHam

Thank God my sister is dead.


37 posted on 10/06/2022 7:30:38 PM PDT by sasquatch
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