[Pete from Shawnee Mission]

Lone Palm; Thank you for your analysis!

Demographic collapse in China, in Iran as well, in Russia. People in Totalitarian places who have access to birth control don’t really want to have children, or, the Government mistakenly prevents people from having children!

Shutting off energy from the mideast to China, 60 miles of straits! The only thing it presumes is a government with the the will to act ( something we are working to correct right now!)

[LonePalm]

There are some serious problems with simply cutting off energy to China. Xi is probably the most isolated national leader on Earth at the moment. Putin is a close second. He has created a cult of personality that would make Mao blush. Nobody wants to bring him bad news for fear of him shooting the messenger, literally.

The leaders of the CCP are all too aware of their precarious demographic and energy grip on power. Cut them off from oil and they might well react the same way Japan did when Roosevelt turned off American oil in the summer of 1941. If Xi thought he could remain in power with a loss of only 500 million Chinese he might just think that was an acceptable trade.

The problem for China is that Japan had a Navy capable of going down to the Dutch East Indies, now Indonesia, and getting it. Also the DEI oil would meet Japan's needs. Indonesian oil will make a dent in China's problem but then China would only have a dented problem and a LOT of people out for their scalps.

The People's Liberation Army Navy(PLAN) has the largest Navy in the world. Unfortunately, for them, it simply can't project power past the first island chain. The US Navy is second in size and the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force is third. The US Navy can project power anywhere it chooses while the Japanese by themselves would put a hurting on the PLAN.

The list of countries with the ability and the desire to cut off Chinese oil includes, but is not limited to: the US, Japan, Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam, Malaysia, Australia, and India.

Personally, I would just as soon wait out China and let their demographics do the job for me.

WWG1WGA

Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)