'Running Out Of Spare Parts': Plenty Of Pain Ahead For Russia's Economy

Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty ^ | May 05, 2022 15:54 GMT | Sergei Khazov-Cassia

[GonzoII]

At first glance, Russia may seem to be adapting to the tough new sanctions imposed by Western countries over its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.

The ruble, which tumbled in the first days of the war to a record low, rebounded to its highest level since early 2020 this week. Grocery stores in Moscow are still filled with food, albeit at much higher prices, and revenue from the sale of oil and gas continues to flow into the budget.

But Russia's economy is anything but out of the woods, Elina Ribakova, deputy chief economist at the Washington-based Institute of International Finance (IIF), told RFE/RL's Russian Service in an interview. The country is entering what is likely to be a very tough period as the impact of the sanctions gradually sets in, she says. "Everyone is running out of spare parts, export markets have disappeared, many [companies] cannot continue production," Ribakova said, citing evidence form a recent Russian central bank report.

The United States, the European Union, and other allies have barred exports to Russia of key technology, such as microprocessors -- or chips -- used in the production of many manufactured goods, including cars and planes.

Meanwhile, many Western companies have voluntarily announced they will no longer do business in Russia, such as suppliers of components or services to the manufacturing industry….

[DannyTN]

We are depending on China for spare parts. This could be us one day.

[woodbutcher1963]

Is that why the US nixed the Israel pipeline to Crete, Egypt and Greece?
The US is backing a Turkish pipeline instead and the Israel one would have been competition?

Enlighten me, please

[GrumpyOldGuy]

1. How much of this is real and how much is propaganda?
2. Russians are used to dealing with things on a daily basis that we would lose our minds over.
3. Much of the world embargoed Cuba for decades and they survived well enough to be a pain in the neck to the US.
4. A lot of countries are participating in the “crush Russia” party line, but many are not. My guess is that it will take some time, but Russia will find a way to survive just fine.

[iontheball]

What in the world is this nutjob talking about? Has she stopped to even take a look at the West’s predicament caused by the sanctions. No fertilizer for crops, no food for man or feed fro animals, no fuel for deliver trucks, farm machinery, factories, or homes, dead chickens everywhere, translating into fewer eggs and meat. That’s just a few crisis off the top of my head. What is she thinking-drinking?

[sauropod]

.

[Karl Spooner]

I don’t know, everybody was celebrating and joking about the crash of the Ruble a few months ago, but now the Ruble just hit a 2 year high against the “surging” US dollar yesterday. Seems like anything said or written by the West is totally unreliable. I believe Russia will find a source for chips just like we find a source for drugs.

[MercyFlush]

Are you under any kind of restriction by the moderators that prevents you from posting articles? If not then post the articles you wish to see.

Meanwhile the shortcomings of the Russian economy are part and parcel relevant to the matter of Russia’s war against Ukraine in which Russia has been issuing near daily nuclear threats at forty or fifty different countries.

Russia’s petroleum industry grinding to a halt due to a lack of Western tech is welcome news to me. The Russians will freeze this winter, their military will run out of gas, and their mobile missile launchers won’t be quite so mobile.

[wiseprince]

It’s simply not true that Russia will run out of gas, has no expertise in maintaining energy infrastructure and is a few months away from having no military due to lack of energy. Furthermore, it’s obvious that having Russian energy infrastructure completely unaccessible would be a major security issue to a number of non aligned nations, China, India to name a few. The idea that every other nation on Earth will have access to energy while Russia is starved of it is such a silly notion. I hope it’s just propaganda because if someone who holds any sway or power believes this and is making decisions based on this...oh boy. Anyways. Nice talk.

[Ancesthntr]

The Russians may be in big trouble due to lack of spare parts...but so are we. We have thousands of trucks, tractors and heavy duty equipment sitting idle due to lack of parts (sometimes as simple as $50 sensors without which their machinery cannot operate). What we in the West have done to Russia’s military is being done to us by the Chinese shutdowns and the nearly complete supply-chain disruption that occurred during Covid (and from which we had only partially recovered until the latest Chinese shutdowns). So perhaps we can gloat a bit...but we would be much better served by trying to fix the very big (and worsening) problem that we are facing.

[Kazan]

Sure.

On March 15th, we told Russia only had days left to win the war before it ran out of resources:

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-army-days-away-running-out-resources-military-experts-say-1688025

Military experts and former commanders have said that Russia's army is days away from running out of resources, with what was intended to be a swift seizure of key Ukrainian cities turning into a drawn-out war.

These claims are as ridiculous as the ones environmental Chicken Littles have been making for 50 years.

Do you ever begin to doubt the propaganda you're being fed from the Biden regime and the liars in Ukraine? The Ukrainians have been caught lying over and over again for the "ghost of Kiev" lie to the lie about the Russians leaving civilian bodies out to rot in Bucha.

[DUMBGRUNT]

—”All while the Russian Ruble has recovered well>

https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2022/04/05/1090920442/how-russia-rescued-the-ruble
Those are the tangible external factors driving the ruble’s recovery. The internal factors are somewhat less corporeal. On Feb. 28, the Central Bank of Russia increased interest rates to 20%. Any Russian who might have been tempted to sell their rubles and buy dollars or euros now has a big incentive to save that money instead. The fewer rubles that go up for sale, the less downward pressure there is on the currency.

[DUMBGRUNT]

—”China will help them out. Yeah, china doesn’t do anything for free.”

Russia will become a subsidiary of China Inc.

Until they have sucked Russia dry of resources.

[Covenantor]

Recent problems at Black Sea port... A consortium operating the pipeline that Kazakhstan uses to export the bulk of its oil has said the route may be largely unusable for up to two months because of infrastructure damage caused by a recent storm. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium, or CPC, said in a March 22 statement that two of three tanker loading facilities at the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, which allow ships to take on oil at a safe distance from the shore, have been rendered inoperable.

March 23 2022

see more...

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/CPC-Pipeline-Shutdown-Could-Last-For-Months.html

[bert]

Cannot enlighten you. I do not know.

Except, I believe Turkey has been made an offer it dare not refuse.