Principles for Dealing with the Changing World, by Ray Dalio

Ray Dalio ^ | Ray Dalio

[bhl]

https://youtu.be/xguam0TKMw8

[bhl]

Excellent 45 minute YouTube presentation on changing world powers, reserve currencies, cycles. Non-partisan.

[DannyTN]

I watched that. It was a really interesting video.
He tracks 8 trends that tend to move in concert with each other.

At the end, his graphs imply that the US is on a declining path as a world power and China is on a rising one.

However he says the two things important to maintaining world power is Education and Civility.

Education leads to innovation and productivity improvements.

Civility, respect for each other and the rule of law, is usually high when you’re striving to become a world power. Not so much at the end of the cycle.

[who_would_fardels_bear]

I watched that. Very good and easy-to-follow discussion.

There are a couple of trends that are unique in history that might require an adjustment to his trend charts.

We are seeing a massive decline in reproduction in the advanced countries. There are some that say China will grow old before they become rich. So the peak for China might be like the peak for the Ottomans, i.e. never resulting in being a single superpower.

AI might also be another factor that will allow a relatively few educated and civilized people to hold things together in an otherwise decadent society.

So there might be some more gas in the US's tank... or sun shining on some solar panels.

[srmanuel]

Before anyone lionizes Ray Dalio, read up on his relationship with China, he’s a huge backer of their way of doing business.

The #2 person in the CCP is Li Keqiang, his relationship with Ray Dalio is something we should be concerned about.

Generally, it seems that many of the richest US Billionaires are more and more comfortable with how China does business.

[who_would_fardels_bear]

One of the things he gets wrong is stating that populists on the right support the rich. It is actually the case that populists on the right support the middle class and small business owners in opposition to the rent seeking rich.

If his Chinese connections are biasing his views then maybe this video is just a clever shill to get us to buy out his Chinese investments before they tank due to all the corruption and self-defeating policies like one child.

[bhl]

I don’t think we like to hear it as “supporting the rich”, but conservatives are pro-capitalism, pro-small business, against regulations... which _tend_ to favor the rich and/or becoming rich. And most conservatives don’t agree with “taxing the rich” to solve economic problems.

The one child policy was started in 1980 and ended in 2016. Maybe China will collapse (perhaps due to not enough women from the one child policy) but I wouldn’t count them out.

China plays the long game and makes a lot of smart decisions. Betting against them is not wise— and they’ll soon control Taiwan and most of the world’s chip manufacturing.

[srmanuel]

One of these days, maybe in the very near future, we are going to be in the same situation with China as we are now with Russia.

China invades Taiwan, will the Western World go crazy and put the same type of sanctions on China as they are trying to do with Russia ??

For example, will the NBA condemn China, will Hollywood stop censoring their movies based on what China tells them is unacceptable, will Wall Street pull their investments, etc...

Dalio IMO, is like a lot of very rich and powerful people, they would love to have the power of the CCP, just order people around because of their elite status, they know better than the masses...

People like Dalio are intoxicated by the money, China potentially has and the ability to order things to happen on a societal level.