I watched that. It was a really interesting video.
He tracks 8 trends that tend to move in concert with each other.
At the end, his graphs imply that the US is on a declining path as a world power and China is on a rising one.
However he says the two things important to maintaining world power is Education and Civility.
Education leads to innovation and productivity improvements.
Civility, respect for each other and the rule of law, is usually high when you’re striving to become a world power. Not so much at the end of the cycle.
There are a couple of trends that are unique in history that might require an adjustment to his trend charts.
We are seeing a massive decline in reproduction in the advanced countries. There are some that say China will grow old before they become rich. So the peak for China might be like the peak for the Ottomans, i.e. never resulting in being a single superpower.
AI might also be another factor that will allow a relatively few educated and civilized people to hold things together in an otherwise decadent society.
So there might be some more gas in the US's tank... or sun shining on some solar panels.
Before anyone lionizes Ray Dalio, read up on his relationship with China, he’s a huge backer of their way of doing business.
The #2 person in the CCP is Li Keqiang, his relationship with Ray Dalio is something we should be concerned about.
Generally, it seems that many of the richest US Billionaires are more and more comfortable with how China does business.