Posted on 12/08/2021 5:48:03 PM PST by Capt. Tom
Specifically the cruise lines have the toughest predicament. They are dealing with it, but there are giant storms to wade through before clear sailing.
Management so far has survived the Covid-19 disaster but they are still on life support. It is hard to instill confidence on Wall Street if you can’t land the sales on Main street.
The same risks still face Carnival as cruising has not yet gone back to normal. They can rebuild but there are no guarantees. Mutations are unpredictable therefore this sector will have headline risk for a long while. Perhaps of all the travel and leisure stocks, cruises are most vulnerable to disruptions.
CCL Stock Fans Have Conviction My conclusion is that fans of CCL can hold it long term but with a speculative twist. We cannot call it safe until years from now.
Usually I reserve a special discussion about the company’s fundamental metrics. In this case it’s futile to do so because they are still murky from the pandemic. Last 12 months revenues are 1/30th those of two years ago. Clearly it would be unfair to judge investments from those. The bigger problem is that they are also losing $9 billion in the process.
Management so far has succeeded in bridging the gap. But any extension of revenue recovery would put the company in jeopardy again. In other words, Carnival just doesn’t have a lot of room for error. This goes the same for the entire industry. They have a huge overhead and they need sales to survive.
When the uncertainties are this unusual, investors should keep the risk size modest. The idea is to set up the opportunity to participate but not being all in. For some reason this sector draws high emotions, which leaves us vulnerable to rash actions.
(Excerpt) Read more at msn.com ...
All the mask, vaccination requirements, covid testings are not going to fill those ships up with paying passengers. -Tom
Then you add a touch of “real life” to a rough situation and it doesn’t get better. Horizon (3 years old), is now on its way to Gibralter for a propulsion system overhaul ... that shouldn’t have happened to such a new ship. When it rains it pours. (Good luck Carnival!)
I should have been on an 8-day birthday cruise this week, but Carnival cancelled my booking because Im not jabbed ...
I also lost cruises through to the end of march ...
With the new requirement for children to be jabbed cruise lines are going to have a hard time filling their ships not every parent is panting to arrange for the unnecessary poison to be jabbed into their children in order to take a floating casino vacation ...
If the big 3 Cruise Lines didn't owe Billions of dollars, they might be able to squeak by to a recovery.
But besides making enough money to survive, they have to pay back Billions of borrowed money.
I suspect a lot of wheeling and dealing is going on behind the scenes, with the creditors. -Tom
Carnival Cruise Lines CCL has taken on $24 billion of long term debt in the past two years to keep themselves afloat as they deal with the China Pandemic.
CCL used to have $7 billion of long term debt on their books and now they have over $31 billion.
CCL, like the other cruise lines, is in bad shape. And there is no end in sight.
Can anyone who has sailed in the last 6 months confirm this ...
Have the stockholder benefit been eliminated ?
Carnival used to be 50/100/250 $ depending on length of trip
And in the finance arena — when was the last time Carnival paid a dividend ? How much ?
All it will take is one creditor to force them into bankruptcy. -Tom
I was on the Horizon for her first cruise she shouldnt have had any problems so soon...
I agree, and all the new ships on order are going to be a factor in the recovery. -Tom
Wife and I have done 30+ cruises, platinum Carnival members.
We refuse to take the clot shots and the cruise lines have to follow CDC regs that mandate them.
I pray the cruise lines survive, they are our fav vacations. Sadly, I doubt cruising will return to normal.
I’ve been on Carnival and Princess in the last few months and used the OBC of $100 on each. Can’t be used in the casino though...
I believe the cruise lines will survive, but some of them are going to have to go thru a form of bankruptcy that allows them to stay in business and pare back their operations. -Tom
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