I totally agree with your take.
I really don’t worry whether or not Trump will run in 2024. I’m more concerned that the Biden Administration not go on much longer and not be replaced by Kamala or a replacement for her.
I figure Trump is a realist and realizes he does not know how much gas he will have in the tank by the time 2024 gets around and cares enough about this country that he will will not run if he thinks his age is catching up to him.
But he will move heaven and earth to make sure his preferred successor wins. And I don’t see his preferred successor being someone we won’t be happy with.
And being a realist, Trump realizes we cannot survive much longer as a country with Biden’s handlers in charge, so I think plans are in place to take care of that soon.