Posted on 12/16/2020 10:14:33 AM PST by Capt. Tom
BOSTON (CBS) – If there is one thing New Englanders know, its weather can change on a dime, and so can the forecast.
If you read my little afternoon blog Monday or perhaps flipped on WBZ-TV and watched Eric Fisher, you heard things like…
-Light and fluffy snowfall for everyone -Sharp cutoff to the snow shield north of Boston -Highest snow totals to the south of Boston
That was SO MONDAY…
Today those statements read more like this…
-Light and fluffy snow NORTHWEST OF BOSTON, heavier and wetter along the coast and southeast with some mixing on the Cape and Islands -The snow shield will likely extend all the way north into SKI COUNTRY! -WIDE SWATH of 10-16″ of snow in southern New England
So, yeah…big changes. Are we done? Time will tell.
One thing that hasn’t changed much, the timeline.
Timeline:
First flakes arrive around 7 p.m. Wednesday in southwest Connecticut and by 11 p.m. in northeast (Essex County) Massachusetts.
Snowfall becomes steady after midnight in all of southern New England.
Heaviest snow falls from about 2 a.m. through 10 a.m. Thursday.
Intensity lessens after 10 a.m., likely done with 80-90% of accumulation at that point.
Between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m. we see scattered light to moderate snow bands, gradually decreasing in coverage.
After 4 p.m. just a few leftover coastal flurries.
Expected Snow Accumulation:
Initial indications showed a sharp cut-off with the snow shield. As of Wednesday morning, the guidance models the WBZ-TV Weather Team uses each day have agreed on a northern push of significant snow accumulation.
Here is the current thinking:
Widespread 10″- 16″ across most of southern New England, north of Cape Cod and the South Coast. Major difference here will be in the texture of the snow…light and fluffy stuff west of I-95 and much heavier/wetter snow inside I-95 including the coastline and most of southeastern MA.
So, while you may get more precipitation to the south (water equivalent), it may end up adding to the same totals in the end. Less water content to the northwest but fluffier snow accumulates much more readily.
6-10″ across the South Coast and the Upper Cape near the canal, also including Martha’s Vineyard. This due to a very wet snow/mixed precipitation.
6-10” north of Manchester and Keene, New Hampshire…very light and fluffy up there.
3-6″ over the Outer Cape
1-3″ Nantucket, lots of mixing here
Winds:
Not a hugely powerful storm, so winds will not reach nearly as high as some of our more notable nor’easters in the past.
The strongest winds will be on the outer Cape and Nantucket with gusts as high as 55 mph.
Gusts between 35-45 mph are expected along the remaining coastline.
Inland, much less wind with winds peaking out mostly between 15-35mph.
Coastal Flooding:
Tides during the storm will be astronomically high, meaning we will need to be on the lookout for some coastal flooding.
Thankfully, the storms peak occurs during low tide (Thursday morning), so only expecting minor splash over and vulnerable road inundation during the midday high tide on Thursday (12:52 p.m. in Boston).
Travel impacts:
The snow is going to stack up quickly overnight leading to very dangerous road conditions on Thursday morning. Plows and crews will have a hard time keeping up with the accumulation on highways alone. The secondary roads are certainly going to be difficult to manage.
With a “work from home” scenario and “remote learning,” the hope is for fewer incidents on the commute. But, if you have to travel, the bottom line will be slow speeds, patience, and safety.
History:
By the way, this storm, as currently forecast, could be one of the biggest pre-Christmas storms ever in Boston! To reach the top 5 Boston would need to get more than 12.5” which was our last “big one” (pre-Christmas) back in 2008. Certainly has been a while since we had a big snow storm before Santa arrived in the city.
Here in Baltimore, we are getting enormous flakes now falling down. They downgraded our storm effects here from 4-8” to 1-3”. Still looks nasty out there. The top of the grass is just about covered now, and I’d say it’s about 3” from the surface of the sidewalk to the top of the grass. The snow is supposed to turn to sleet and rain later, providing us with a nice coating of ice when it freezes tonight. I have no reason to go out today, having laid in food, crickets for my lizards, etc. yesterday. Just gonna fix myself another cup of hot cocoa and have some homemade mushroom and barley soup I made last night, mmm. I hope everyone out there is safe and cozy!
Oh noes! A regular sized snowstorm in December!
A wicked pissah....
Just freezing rain and sleet here
WOR in NYC is predicting 12+ inches in the city...more in the suburbs.A foot of snow in Manhattan is a big deal...in ordinary times.But NYC is a ghost town these days so maybe it won’t be a big deal.
Many of our weather forecasters in the Boston area take a routine winter snow storm and hype it into a never before experienced weather phenomenon.
I think the forecaster I quote in this thread gave us the facts and avoided hyping the storm. -Tom
I also remember that after a day or two of nonstop shoveling I decided to take a walk down 128 (we lived nearby) after they had towed away most of the stranded cars.
They are predicting 8-12 tonight here in Nashua. Another 3-5 tomorrow. The good thing is it is going to get down to 15 tonight and only a high in the mid 20’s tomorrow. So, nice light fluffy snow.
What month is this?
December.
And we’re talking about snow in NE like it rarely happens in December.
Thanks, Capt. Tom. I am with you-I couldn’t give a hoot about weather forecasts. I just take it as it comes...
People get crazy about this stuff.
Well, “I” won’t be involved Tom as I left the NE in 1991 and now reside in FL. But I am wishing you good health and safe passage thru the winter storm and all days ahead. I fondly remember being wrapped in a wool blanket late at night listening to the wind howl and the snow patter against the window.
Snowblower gassed up and sitting on the patio under a tarp - first thing in the morning I clear a path out to the chickens. Chickens got to eat.
Best eclectic mix of music in the nation, (I'm in CT).
I like a winter Noreaster when I lie in bed in the early morning hours and it sounds like a jet aircraft in my backyard revving its engines up and down, and the snow beating on the windows.
Since the wind from this storm isn't expected to be over 50 mph, not much damage should be done.
Since I make many trips to the bathroom at night; in the wee hours of the morning I know I won't be able to resist looking outside at the storms progress . -Tom
UPenn guy?
“Here in Minneapolis-St. Paul, everything is brown.”
_____________________________________________________
Including the noses of the liberal politicians.
Nope. Just like their music.
It’ll probably be 4-8 inches. They are always way wrong.
Well, Central NY here. No snow yet.
Weather dude says it’s snowing in a nearby county. Also has now updated my area from 20+” to 24+”. Why so much?
Sad part, the snow won’t be good for growing snowmen. :(
Union workers want their snow days
No More Snow Days: Remote Learning Ends Beloved Winter Days Off for NYC Kids
Published December 16, 2020
NBC News 4
The head of the city’s largest teacher’s union, though, has doubts about whether schools should stay open if the city shuts down. Michael Mulgrew, of the United Federation of Teachers, argued that if the situation worsens to the point that the city needs to close, it would be irresponsible to leave schools open.
“The UFT fought to re-open schools – but only with the equipment, procedures, and testing that made them safe,” Mulgrew said in a statement. “If the coronavirus infection rate rises to the point that a citywide ‘shelter in place’ is necessary, keeping school buildings open would be irresponsible.”
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